https://twitter.com/PoliticalGaffe/status/1318034495111507968?s=19
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This is arguably a low blow from Tapper. Nice to see.
https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1317819044125433857?s=19
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And, according to CP, Christopher Wray is actively covering up this crime that is 10 times worse than watergate. The propaganda machine that is the GOP will be full on conspiracy nuts from now until, well, maybe until they are extinct.
This is the level of delusion weāre up against:
https://twitter.com/ScottAdamsSays/status/1317572583382872064
They are all brainwashed cult members bowing at the feet of their conman leader.None of these people should be allowed to come out of their house ever again.
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There will be a follow-up tweet in like one day which says like āwhen I said Trump had clear policies I was actually performing a persuasion experimentā or some bullshit.
This is a great video, but also shows how Trump supporters just straight up lie about their lives being way better under Trump because they know its a thing to do that makes Trump look better and gives you a reason to support him that isnāt racism. Sure debt collector guy is true, but Iād be willing to bet the majority of them are lying. Like all those still trumpers who lost the farm would tell you their lives are better under Trump.
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Was curious about how my views have or have not evolved, so reviewing some old posts. Trump may win this thing, cause the universe can be an evil, but itās nice to see that my views from a year ago line up with 538 two weeks before the election. This is from Aug 2019:
I mean my back of the envelope calculation regarding Trump not winning is that he had razor thin margins in three states, such that if the same voters voted today he would lose, because more of his voters are now dead and the new 18-22 y/os who will be voting (alas, not enough of them) will likely vote dem.
Add that to the additional fact that the dem nominee is likely to be more popular than Hillary and that Trump is no longer an unknown to Trump-curious voters, often not to his advantage, and I see his odds of winning as quite low. There are just damn few ānewā Trump voters.
So, that gets him to a 5-10% chance of winning, and the other 10% is an add-on in case something freaky happens, like his opponent dying in a plane crash or choking on a McNugget (and even then, heād probably lose) or some kind of new āComey Surpriseā. Also, the economy ālooks goodā for him now, but if the dow drops 10-15% then heās in deep trouble. Heās behind already and has to fade a ton of outs.
Also, the NRA spent like $75 mil on Trump in 2016, and this time theyāll probably spend $0. I think the Kochs have also pulled back on spending, and Adelson may be dead by then. Also, GOP fundraising is always taxed by the significant grift component. These folks arenāt retiring from Congress because they think 2020 will be a cake walk. Remember, GOP had a pretty substantial House victory in 2016. What are they odds for them to retake the House? Can trump win if Dems win the house, even with a lower majority? That seems unlikely. The GOP got there asses out to vote in 2018, they were just swamped by the wave. There are a lot of passionate anti-Trumpers who will order their friends and family not to vote Trump. That may not be a huge effect, but Trump BARELY won in 2016, and he basically needs to run the table again. Finally, most people surrounding Trump are incompetent grifters. I donāt expect him to hit another 2 outer. Heāll probably campaign in like Alabama where he can get adoring crowds.
If I am wrong about this Iāll probably be posting from like New Zealand in 2021, but Iām pretty much all in on a Trump loss.
In some ways my analysis was based on the state of play pre impeachment and pre covid. I canāt tell that impeachment cut one way or another, but covid appears to have cut into Trumpās win equity.
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I mean the main reason you might be right though is Covid which you couldnāt have predicted, without Covid this race is almost certainly a flip, favorable to Trump because of cheating. Prior to Covid this race was a flip, maybe even Trump a legit favorite. You can probably even attribute his insane debate performance to being down big because of Covid, and desperation.
So basically I think you would have been horribly wrong without Covid. The main reason Trump is polling so badly is old people have abandoned him over covid.
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Disagree, but I did make a nice post (one like) that could be read as foreshadowing Trumpās response to Covid.
A funny thing is that when you work with complex organizations, especially in leadership, whether politics, the military, law, engineering projects (e.g., Apollo,. a bridge), and a whole bunch of other stuff, you have to be truthful and trustworthy and basically accurate, because your actions or commands are part of an interdependent chain of actions or commands, AND EVERYONE HAS TO BE ON THE SAME PAGE. Statements, to say nothing of commands, have significant consequences for the endeavor being undertaken.
However, because Trump is a conman who inherited his wealth, his only efforts to actually run something larger than a McDonaldās have gone bankrupt. He hates reality. He really doesnāt understand that you cannot govern or enact policy thatās basically BS. All you can do is hire toadies who wonāt push back and hope they can somehow implement, or make it appear they are implementing, your BS and inconsistent and/or illegal dictates.
I mean there are many other paths beside being a competent leader, things like failure, massacres, mass starvation, losses at war, etc. Trumpās strategy in part is just to say a lot of BS and pretend and not do most the things he says unless (ideally) other people give him permission.
This is not very well stated, but I think complex systems simply arenāt designed to handle people like Trump, because systems have to operate on the constant communication of information that reflects reality in order to function properly. (Otherwise you get thigns like the Iraq war and global warming). [or Covid]
link: The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: ORANGE Gettin' PEACHed, Nation Goes BANANAS - #407 by simplicitus
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Having a job or not having a criminal record wouldnāt make some of these ppl happier than triggering the libs and Hillary not being in office.
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Iāll add that I had the same exact view as you after the election. I started to change my opinion though as Trump was polling as a flip with pretty much everyone, and heād be running on what most dummies consider a great economy with record low unemployment and booming stock market. As incumbent, that would have been hard to beat. I donāt see how most undecideds donāt break for him in that scenario without covid.
And I think all of us saw Trump fucking up Covid because heās literally fucked up everything heās ever done, it just hadnāt really affected a large portion of voters yet so they didnāt give a fuck.
Maybe youāre right and I was right initially and shouldnāt have changed my mind, but like I said I disagree. I donāt think people would have given a shit about him being a corrupt asshole if the unemployment was low and their 401ks were banging.
Thatās +5 nationally, dem was always a favorite to win popular vote obv. National polls donāt matter at all. Unless its like +10 I guess, how was he doing in the swing states?
I think if no covid the anti fracking shit lands. The reason none of Trumps shit is landing is because people are fucking tired of covid, but if people were bored and happy some of this shit would be landing like in 2016. Plus like I said cheating, +5 nationally is still probably Trump a favorite if heās a flip in swing states because of said cheating.
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I understand this and it has some plausibility. OTOH, Trumpsā approval has been basically a straight line for 4 years, and it hasnāt been on the winning end of things absent serious voter suppression and major surprises. IMO, heās now drawing to 2-3 October surprises, and the Hunter Biden stuff doesnāt count.
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Trump was at best a flip with the economy looking good. A generic Democrat had a good chance of beating him. Hillary was the nut low against Trump. Pretty much anyone else was going to improve on her numbers, which put Trump in a tough spot.
What has changed is what a post-election interpretation of what a Trump loss means. Whereas before it would have been seen as a rejection of Trumpās racism, now it will be seen as a referendum on COVID and future elections will have more pundits opining about whether Dems can afford to alienate too many of the persuadable bigots.
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And I guess my baseline is that with Trump reality just doesnāt matter much, and that the main change from 2016 is that more Trump voters have died and therefore wonāt be voting. But with just that I would expect the dem to win by like 4% nationally and barely take the EC. Other factors, including covid, and Trump is now the ādevil you knowā instead of a vessel for hope and less hatred for Biden than Hillary have probably led to another 4% shift for the dems.
Dude, the only reason Trump is 13 percent to win the presidency is because of a black swan event (COVID) that you had no idea would happen. The fact that heās badly mishandled the worst crisis to hit the US in 80 years and still has a 43 percent approval rating is pretty strong evidence that heād be the favorite to be re-elected if not for COVID.
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