They’re abdicating their Constitutional duty, and probably know it. I’m giving the benefit of the doubt that if they’re not willing to go on the record in support of opening an official impeachment inquiry that they don’t think the belong in Congress. If you can’t do your number 1 job, you don’t belong there no matter what side of the aisle you’re on. Roby’s is the biggest because she’s on the Judiciary Committee and won by 60 percent. They may ultimately come out in support of an impeachment inquiry, but first they have to protect their out of Congress job prospects. As an additional FYI Will Hurd has probably read the unredacted Mueller report.
They probably don’t want to deal with Trump’s crap and know if they speak out, they will get railroaded by him. So step down and not deal with the headaches.
CNN reports that there are eight this year, but that this number is pretty normal for the minority party at this point in the cycle.
So like Greg “Body Slam” Gianforte is retiring, but he’s retiring because he wants to run for governor (lol Montana). Hurd and maybe some of the others are departing because of Donald Trump (in one way or another), but the article also alludes to a lot of Republican churn generally.
That and I suppose R’s are older generally and have more grifting opportunities out of office.
It is worth saying that, while who wins the Presidency is not more than 45% one way or the other, Dems keeping the house is looking pretty, pretty good
Only problem with this is that 6 have retired since Mueller testified. One from each of the committees he testified in front of.
I think Trump is at best 33% to win the presidency. And I suspect it’s more like 15%, with 10% of that being random flukes.
If you can bottle that optimism and ship me some my liver will thank you (predict it has stable genius at 47%)
Well you have more faith than me the 2020 elections will be fair.
I mean we have Moscow Mitch refusing bills making elections fairer on the basis they would favor Democrats
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Lol. I’m sure they were shocked, positively aghast, when the skeleton of the former FBI man said Donald Trump is not not guilty of crimes. “Why, I thought he was a man of impeccable character!” The reason we’re hearing now is likely because they have to start lining up replacement candidates. Hurd could be about Russia but seems just as likely to do with “go back to your country,” as he has publicly denounced those comments and the direction of his party regarding minorities.
Extrapolate all you want to turn it into no meaning, but timing is everything. This is about the worst timing for each of them to decide to retire (in the week after Mueller). It makes it look significant no matter what you say. This is optics. The Roby retirement makes no sense. She won by 60 percent in 2018.
I mean my back of the envelope calculation regarding Trump not winning is that he had razor thin margins in three states, such that if the same voters voted today he would lose, because more of his voters are now dead and the new 18-22 y/os who will be voting (alas, not enough of them) will likely vote dem.
Add that to the additional fact that the dem nominee is likely to be more popular than Hillary and that Trump is no longer an unknown to Trump-curious voters, often not to his advantage, and I see his odds of winning as quite low. There are just damn few “new” Trump voters.
So, that gets him to a 5-10% chance of winning, and the other 10% is an add-on in case something freaky happens, like his opponent dying in a plane crash or choking on a McNugget (and even then, he’d probably lose) or some kind of new “Comey Surprise”. Also, the economy “looks good” for him now, but if the dow drops 10-15% then he’s in deep trouble. He’s behind already and has to fade a ton of outs.
Man, I love your optimism and hope you’re right, but I’m getting a strong feeling you’re gonna be the poster with whom I make my traditional “GOP for Pres” reverse jinx bet.
@simplicitus No concerns whatsoever about voter suppression, Russian hacking of voter rolls, or Russian hacking of election systems?
I believe those three add up to give him quite a bit of equity, especially as the GOP refuses to move on election security.
I also think he has at least one ace up his sleeve for next October, whether he realizes it or not is another question all together… But if he cuts a deal with China and lifts all the tariffs, the stock market will soar for a week or two and everyone will predict tons of economic growth.
You forgot Russian straight up changing votes in 2020
When that happens. There will be more outrage
Trump will say “another witch hunt”
Nothing happens
Trump still president.
Don’t be so negative. Nancy will write a strongly worded letter, the lawyers among us will assure us that the law will save us, nunnehi will have the impeachment whip count updated daily, and Trump is pretty old so you’re looking at three terms, maybe four max.
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I’m guessing you’re meaning that the strongly worded letter will go out to the progressive wing of the party to belittle them for helping DJT win again.
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Nah she’ll do that in a private meeting then anonymously leak it to the NYT and blame the defeat on AOC.
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I think there will be some voter suppression, basically in similar forms to 2020. Hell, voting in person and on Tuesday is voter suppression imo. (CA permanent absentee is solid.) I don’t think there can be a lot more voter suppression than 2010-2018, other than perhaps swing states with both GOP governor and legislature. Don’t think there are many of those, and changes to voting in 2019/20 can often be held up in the courts.
I expect the Russians to do similar things that they did in 2016, mainly disruption, propaganda, and such, which is far less effective than things like Druge and Fox News. I don’t think they will actually change any vote totals. The spooks in the NSA monitor Russian activity pretty closely, and changing vote totals is basically an act of war. Putin does not want to piss off the US much more and potentially have to face an angry Liz Warren.
I think he gains some equity from suppression and Russian activity, but not much more than 2016, and that’s the baseline where he barely eeked out a win.
Also, the NRA spent like $75 mil on Trump in 2016, and this time they’ll probably spend $0. I think the Kochs have also pulled back on spending, and Adelson may be dead by then. Also, GOP fundraising is always taxed by the significant grift component. These folks aren’t retiring from Congress because they think 2020 will be a cake walk. Remember, GOP had a pretty substantial House victory in 2016. What are they odds for them to retake the House? Can trump win if Dems win the house, even with a lower majority? That seems unlikely. The GOP got there asses out to vote in 2018, they were just swamped by the wave. There are a lot of passionate anti-Trumpers who will order their friends and family not to vote Trump. That may not be a huge effect, but Trump BARELY won in 2016, and he basically needs to run the table again. Finally, most people surrounding Trump are incompetent grifters. I don’t expect him to hit another 2 outer. He’ll probably campaign in like Alabama where he can get adoring crowds.
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Trump’s approval rating is like 4 points higher than his favorability rating was before the election.
Not sure that’s entirely accurate, and it sounds like it might be a misleading comparison. He hasn’t been over 43% in 2.54 years, and it’s hard to win with 43%. That said, I could see a scenario vs Warren or Bernie where they are also at 43%, but I think they would have more mojo. Also, a competent campaign and/or events should be able to get him down to 39%