Was curious about how my views have or have not evolved, so reviewing some old posts. Trump may win this thing, cause the universe can be an evil, but it’s nice to see that my views from a year ago line up with 538 two weeks before the election. This is from Aug 2019:
I mean my back of the envelope calculation regarding Trump not winning is that he had razor thin margins in three states, such that if the same voters voted today he would lose, because more of his voters are now dead and the new 18-22 y/os who will be voting (alas, not enough of them) will likely vote dem.
Add that to the additional fact that the dem nominee is likely to be more popular than Hillary and that Trump is no longer an unknown to Trump-curious voters, often not to his advantage, and I see his odds of winning as quite low. There are just damn few “new” Trump voters.
So, that gets him to a 5-10% chance of winning, and the other 10% is an add-on in case something freaky happens, like his opponent dying in a plane crash or choking on a McNugget (and even then, he’d probably lose) or some kind of new “Comey Surprise”. Also, the economy “looks good” for him now, but if the dow drops 10-15% then he’s in deep trouble. He’s behind already and has to fade a ton of outs.
Also, the NRA spent like $75 mil on Trump in 2016, and this time they’ll probably spend $0. I think the Kochs have also pulled back on spending, and Adelson may be dead by then. Also, GOP fundraising is always taxed by the significant grift component. These folks aren’t retiring from Congress because they think 2020 will be a cake walk. Remember, GOP had a pretty substantial House victory in 2016. What are they odds for them to retake the House? Can trump win if Dems win the house, even with a lower majority? That seems unlikely. The GOP got there asses out to vote in 2018, they were just swamped by the wave. There are a lot of passionate anti-Trumpers who will order their friends and family not to vote Trump. That may not be a huge effect, but Trump BARELY won in 2016, and he basically needs to run the table again. Finally, most people surrounding Trump are incompetent grifters. I don’t expect him to hit another 2 outer. He’ll probably campaign in like Alabama where he can get adoring crowds.
If I am wrong about this I’ll probably be posting from like New Zealand in 2021, but I’m pretty much all in on a Trump loss.
In some ways my analysis was based on the state of play pre impeachment and pre covid. I can’t tell that impeachment cut one way or another, but covid appears to have cut into Trump’s win equity.