Which explains why Biden is leading by 23 points in PA. Oh, wait, he’s only leading by 7 even with COVID? Hmm, how can that be?
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If Trump loses I expect there is going to be a number of “would Trump have won without Covid” articles. I think the answer is no for the reasons I’ve outlined (and outlined in Aug 2019). The statistical analysis may come out differently depending on what happens on election day (or what is happening now and ends somewhere around election day). Hell, he may win with Covid. Maybe Covid has helped him because people who would vote for Trump aren’t good at finding out actual facts about how he has screwed up and Covid has masked an otherwise expected economic downturn that Trump wouldn’t have been able to blame on a pandemic.
I don’t think COVID did much to change how people were going to vote, but it changed how willing people were to vote. Likely voters became certain voters.
Before COVID, Trump was still losing in the polls and had approval ratings that suggested he would be a one-term president. Saying that he would have been a favorite without COVID ignores data that we actually have. He’s gone from a small underdog to a big underdog.
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This is some wild shit, goes back to March 2017.
There need to be 100 PhD dissertations written on this graph.
https://civiqs.com/results/approve_president_trump?annotations=true&uncertainty=true&trendline=true
Aug 2019 tweet from Nate Cohen. I wish I knew more about this Civiqs tracker. Looks interesting.
https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1160998234002731008?s=20
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Should be noted we have several personal never Trumper stories ITT that are now voting Trump because Kamala is black/socialist.
Approving of Trump and voting for him because he’s not a dem, or theres a black person on the ticket, or because well he’s an asshole but my 401k is rocking are completely different things.
In the end its impossible to know so we all just agree to disagree, but I’m pretty confident in my side of things that Covid is the only reason Trump isn’t a favorite or a flip thats a favorite cuz cheating.
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So Biden is crushing Trumps base of olds by a huge margin, thats basically the sole reason he’s crushing the polls, and you think that has nothing to do with covid?
Jlawok.gif
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Maybe covid is 3 points in the 10 point national average, maybe it’s 5. But I think Trump’s still behind even absent Covid. Also, looking at the Civiqs data from Oct 2020, Trump’s approval among seniors is swing states is generally positive.
Here’s the net approval map for 65+. (+11 FL, +2 PA, +6 in WI, +13 in AZ!, +19 in GA, +27 in TX (we’re fucked in TX)
https://civiqs.com/results/approve_president_trump?annotations=true&uncertainty=true&map=true&age=65%2B
Already happening in NZ after a landslide election win for the incumbents. Every second article is but look at the polls before covid?!?!?!
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Checking out this Civiqs data. Some interesting things:
Trump’s approval on 2018 election day was 53/44 approve. As of this week it’s 55/42.
Positive Trump approval among postgrads is basically the confederacy, MI and AL are highest.
https://civiqs.com/results/approve_president_trump?annotations=true&uncertainty=true&map=true&education=Postgraduate
Trump is +65 approval among white noncollege in AL, and -25 in CA (+18 in FL, +1 in PA)
https://civiqs.com/results/approve_president_trump?annotations=true&uncertainty=true&education=Non-College%20Graduate&map=true&race=White
Trump absolutely wins reelection without COVID.
Biden is a terrible candidate and the economy is/would be crushing. Basically impossible for an incumbent to lose under those circumstances.
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A very common conservative trope is to frame all government success at helping people as government overreach. It’s really not fair that some governments are stealing elections by competently handling the biggest global crisis in a century. That’s practically buying votes, if you think about it!
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Impeachment had 52% support, very close to Biden’s projected vote share. Civiqs
A big question is whether Bernie, Warren, or Pete would be doing about as well as Biden. If 52% of the county supported impeachment, I don’t see how they could later decide to vote for Trump. Perhaps that 52%+ was locked in for the Dem nominee, and the only variable is turnout among potential dem candidates (which may not have been very different.) In other words, Biden may well have approx. 0% value over replacement. If that’s the case and Biden doesn’t do much to excite dems, then he’ll be looking at some serious primary challengers in 2024, ala Carter/Kennedy.
So, you’re Trump’s campaign manager and 52% of the country wanted your candidate impeached do you: 1) consider this fact an emergency and get Trump to appear with puppies and kittens and saying nice things and working with Dems as much as possible until the election 2) triple down on a base turnout strategy, 3) grift while the griftin is good.
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what’s low about it?
Trying to attribute all of Joe’s stumbles and embarrassing moments to his stutter is lol
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I don’t think she was trying to make fun of his stutter, she was just claiming he had dementia. Not a whole lot better, but Tapper didn’t need to prime it with the stuttering kid from the DNC and implicitly suggest, “well, why do you hate stuttering children?” (That said, I’m glad he did, because fuck off Laura Trump.)
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Not that I wasn’t already, but I’m REALLY sick of this whole Biden dementia angle. It’s obvious he doesn’t have fucking dementia, assholes. As usual, it’s just projection. Yeah, he’s fucking old, so obviously he’s not at the level he once was. But he’s fine, jfc.
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