I get the polling, but holy moly it makes me nervous when I see the “here’s how Joe’s victory will be remembered” takes/articles 15 days before Election Day.
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I’m all in. Also, I don’t see this as like a 2 out poker situation, where one might get burned by randomness. I see this as more of the trajectory of a projectile physics problem. Where it will land is determined by initial conditions and the laws of physics. Sure, it can accidently hit a bird or something, but the risk is not the “known unknowns” of poker. With the election we’re getting close to drawing to unknown unknowns.
Even then, say a Biden “Access Hollywood” tape leaks or he’s arrested by the FBI, does that flip 10% of voters? I doubt it. The cake is baked.
Edit: lol, I wrote this post before I started reading this article. The hidden factors that could produce a surprise Trump victory - POLITICO
Yet two weeks before Election Day, the unfolding reality of 2020 is that it’s harder than ever to be sure. And Democrats are scrambling to account for the hidden variables that could still sink their nominee — or what you might call the known unknowns.
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You are not factoring in enough angle shooting and outright riggage.
I wish there was an extension that would alert you to new Keeeeeeed posts but let you try to predict them before viewing them. That would be cool imo.
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It’s a weird situation. Gajillions of early votes is fantastic, as they are mostly for Biden and it guarantees fewer voters change their minds if we get an October surprise in the next couple weeks. At the same time, though, absentee ballots are ripe for riggage.
I think that Trump’s polling numbers are related to his job approval ratings because this election was always going to be a referendum on his presidency. Trump’s handling of COVID has affected his polls to the extent that it has affected his approval numbers, but what the virus has really done has put more Senate seats into play. It’s also made it hard for him to make up ground with some sort of October surprise, partly by solidifying the people who are voting against him so they are unlikely to flip and partly by decreasing the number of undecided voters.
Pre-COVID, Trump had the approval ratings of an incumbent headed for a loss. Does anyone dispute that?
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As someone who’s a nervous wreck over the upcoming election and am inclined to always take a “believe it when I see it” stance when it comes to Trump, I am becoming more and more hopeful
Thing is, Trump has run out of new bullshit and his act is getting stale and old for all but the most brainwashed part of his cult. He has nothing new to say. It’s just the same old tired rants and attacks. The novelty has worn off. This of course, is in addition to the other gijillion reasons he should be voted out
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Pixies underbilled here.
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“This is such bullshit.”
-a sitting member of the United States of America House of Representatives and incel, whining about a fellow incel getting kicked off Twitter for violating its terms of service.
This is where we are now. This is who we are now.
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Yeah as a card-carrying member of team dementia, he is not sick. He’s not super quick on his feet, but he never has been.
In my defense, he legitimately looked terrible in the early large-field Dem debates and the media clips we were getting were him lashing out at people at town halls. He looked pretty bad and unhinged.
Since it got down to a heads up primary, he’s been fine. I do think it helps that he doesn’t have to do much campaigning.
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Covid killed him.
Either that or he’s doing some super-shady shit behind the scenes to rig the election for Trump.
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Who did that?
Something mentioned this morning by I think Heilman maybe? was that incumbents’ performance on Election Day tends to mirror their approval ratings. No idea if he pulled this out of his ass bc I did not verify but Trump’s average approval has been below 50 for his entire presidency.
Trump would be at worst a coinflip if not for covid
Less people would be dead or dying and the economy would be better. A good way to fuck up your chance with the only demographic that likes you is to ruin the response to a virus killing them at a very high rate.
Jake Tapper? The Trump lady was saying that sometimes Joe has a hard time with his words, which is fair imo. Jake can pretend all that is because of his stutter but I don’t know how many are going to buy that.
He didn’t say what you claim though so you should probably figure out a way to walk that dumb straw man back.
I’m good.
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Great—50 new posts in the Trumpbot thread! He’s on a rampage!
Nope—Simplicitus flexing about how accurate his prediction about the election would have been if there was no covid or something.
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