https://twitter.com/marceelias/status/1293603953255632898?s=19
Holy shit. The fact that Defense One published this is startling, because they usually try to stay apolitical. I doubt the authors would consider themselves radical left wingers, either.
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Cliffs on what “Defense One” is?
sort of an “industry” publication for the defense and intel communities. Meaning, to the the people who make the decisions, moreso than carry out the orders. Military Times, for example, is more targeted to the troops/families.
ETA: the defense community includes think tanks, the defense industry (corporations), academics focused on national defense and foreign relations, etc
If you look at the other articles, there is a definite emphasis on the acquisition community, too, which, despite breathless MSM articles about $200 screwdrivers, is heavily involved in policy discussions, as well.
I just went to pick up dinner from this little vegan place in OKC. It’s in the farmers market district, which is literally never busy during the week. I get down there to park, and there are cars and people everywhere. White people. Not a single spot to park around the block.
Perplexed, I circle the block and see a big blue bus for JO JORGENSEN. I can’t think of a worse way to spend your time then going to a political rally for a libertarian presidential candidate.
I said this before and I’ll say it again; libertarians are just hipster republicans.
If Bloomberg/Gates/Buffet actually gave a shit, they could fund the USPS themselves thru November.
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538 has some of the different electoral maps spit out by the model and if this one happened holy shit I might have some faith in this country again:
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LOL Utah and Arkansas. There are certainly scenarios where Biden wins, but come on.
I think those states are winnable in some scenarios (Trump’s EO fails, homelessness skyrockets, we enter a second Great Depression), but I don’t think we can win Arkansas and lose like Louisiana, Oklahoma, South Dakota, Tennessee. Like I think Biden winning 45+ states may be more likely than Biden winning 38 or whatever that map has.
Neither is super likely, but if we’re in such a catastrophe that he’s winning Arkansas, he’s just sweeping damn near everything.
A lot would have to happen for Missouri Arkansas and Utah to go blue
There’s not going to be a deal for pandemic aid probably. I think ‘a lot’ has 89ss and the board is TsJs6c.
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This is an entirely new–and potentially far darker–trolley problem for Republicans to, em, solve.
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Really think “the pandemic changes everything” narrative specifically with regards to the voters is overblown. It gives me a little more faith than Nate’s model, which bakes in a bunch of uncertainty because of the pandemic and economy.
Almost every American is 100% locked in how they feel about Trump and has been for a long time. His 538 average today is 42/54 approve/disapprove. Do you know what it was on August 13, 2019? 42/54. How about on August 13, 2018? 42/53. Five months and 170k deaths into coronavirus and not one opinion has changed.
The pandemic does create uncertainty, but it’s all down to what’s going to happen with the mail-in ballots. The death count could be 1 million in November, and Trump still runs the table in the South easily.
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Looks like this is most likely best case for Biden, and afaik also is individually the most likely final tally as of right now (though obviously that’s still like 4% or so)
You don’t fire your biggest gun until two weeks before the election. We call it the Comey Gambit.
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