It’s about voter turnout, though. If voter turnout was 100%, Biden would win 50 states.
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if that happened D’s would win the south but R’s would win the north
Eh, what decided 2016 is that the people who disapproved of both candidates went big league for Trump. Among those voters, Trump being a huge jackass who annoys them but does some stuff they like and presides over an economy that is relatively good for them versus presiding over a dystopian hellhole matters.
Hell, I’m on the left end of that scale being a solid D who lives in a non-competitive state. In February/March I disapproved of both Biden and Trump, and would have written in Bernie Sanders to express my disapproval of the way he was ganged up on in the primary.
Now all my February/March thoughts seem so trivial and inconsequential. Just want this Trumpian nightmare to be over.
Normally, perhaps. Right now, I think Biden takes 50 states.
wyoming exists dude
We’re talking about growing voter turnout for the Dems when they can’t even protect the right to vote for people that desperately want to vote for them already.
jlawok.gif
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Prove it.
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this reminds me of the garfield sketch where he claims wyoming doesn’t exist “have you ever met anyone from there?”
Dems are going to need to explain ballot drop offs to people. Needless to say that is not good.
Lol, OH, wat?
Right now, 538 has OH as more likely to go Biden than TX, IA, GA, or a sweep of ME, which, outside of IA, seems pretty reasonable and lines up with non-2016 expectations. If Biden wins GA and IA and TX, he’s go Ohio in the bag.
Also, I put a link to the 538 model in the OP for easy reference. That WI poll didn’t move the win probability much, but it did change the tipping point from WI to MN.
Can we talk about 538 Forecast’s main page design for a sec. Am I going to be scrolling over this pajama pants eyeaids 10 times a day for the next 3 months? Fivey the Fox, what in the fuck, for all those 5 year olds mainlining Nate’s forecast?
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Yeah, that shit is hideous.
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Oh, lol I just saw TX was blue too. No chance. We are getting there but it isnt happening this time.
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Wtf. Why do two of those red maps have Or going red? That’s even more preposterous than TX blue
I think you’re underestimating a bit just how bad the polling is for Trump right now. Nate has Biden just 5 points back, and that can change a lot.
As for Oregon, there’s been literally no polling, so the model is going to have much larger error bars compared to states that have been polled.
538 projections:
Trump 55/45 to win Ohio
Trump 65/35 to win GA
Trump 71/29 TX
50/50 NC
Biden 55/45 AZ
Biden 65/35 FL
Biden 74/26 PA
Biden 72/28 MN
Biden 72/28 WI
Biden 81/19 MI
Biden 91/9 OR
Aside from Ohio, that looks a blowout in the rust belt.