I think those states are winnable in some scenarios (Trump’s EO fails, homelessness skyrockets, we enter a second Great Depression), but I don’t think we can win Arkansas and lose like Louisiana, Oklahoma, South Dakota, Tennessee. Like I think Biden winning 45+ states may be more likely than Biden winning 38 or whatever that map has.
Neither is super likely, but if we’re in such a catastrophe that he’s winning Arkansas, he’s just sweeping damn near everything.
A lot would have to happen for Missouri Arkansas and Utah to go blue
There’s not going to be a deal for pandemic aid probably. I think ‘a lot’ has 89ss and the board is TsJs6c.
This is an entirely new–and potentially far darker–trolley problem for Republicans to, em, solve.
Really think “the pandemic changes everything” narrative specifically with regards to the voters is overblown. It gives me a little more faith than Nate’s model, which bakes in a bunch of uncertainty because of the pandemic and economy.
Almost every American is 100% locked in how they feel about Trump and has been for a long time. His 538 average today is 42/54 approve/disapprove. Do you know what it was on August 13, 2019? 42/54. How about on August 13, 2018? 42/53. Five months and 170k deaths into coronavirus and not one opinion has changed.
The pandemic does create uncertainty, but it’s all down to what’s going to happen with the mail-in ballots. The death count could be 1 million in November, and Trump still runs the table in the South easily.
Looks like this is most likely best case for Biden, and afaik also is individually the most likely final tally as of right now (though obviously that’s still like 4% or so)
You don’t fire your biggest gun until two weeks before the election. We call it the Comey Gambit.
It’s about voter turnout, though. If voter turnout was 100%, Biden would win 50 states.
if that happened D’s would win the south but R’s would win the north
Eh, what decided 2016 is that the people who disapproved of both candidates went big league for Trump. Among those voters, Trump being a huge jackass who annoys them but does some stuff they like and presides over an economy that is relatively good for them versus presiding over a dystopian hellhole matters.
Hell, I’m on the left end of that scale being a solid D who lives in a non-competitive state. In February/March I disapproved of both Biden and Trump, and would have written in Bernie Sanders to express my disapproval of the way he was ganged up on in the primary.
Now all my February/March thoughts seem so trivial and inconsequential. Just want this Trumpian nightmare to be over.
Normally, perhaps. Right now, I think Biden takes 50 states.
wyoming exists dude
We’re talking about growing voter turnout for the Dems when they can’t even protect the right to vote for people that desperately want to vote for them already.
jlawok.gif
Prove it.
this reminds me of the garfield sketch where he claims wyoming doesn’t exist “have you ever met anyone from there?”
