Let’s hope so, cause the Dems don’t seem to have anything else in their playbook.
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Yeah I mean I think if we get turnout to even 65% we could hit 400 electoral votes.
2008 it was 58%
2012 55%
2016 56%
So the realm of high turnout vs low turnout is 58% vs 55%. We haven’t had 60% since 1968.
If we have a race polling at 51-44 and turnout jumps from 58% to 65%, you’re talking about adding around 16-17M new voters. If they skew even 60-40 against Trump, we just netted 3.3M votes.
A 51-44 edge out of 132M votes is 67.3M to 58.1M. Adding the 60-40 take of an extra 16.5M makes it 77.2M to 64.7M out of 148.5M.
Thats 51.9 to 43.5.
That’s an extremely conservative split of new voters I’m guessing. They’d have to skew heavily against Trump. At 70-30 you’d be at about 78.9M to 63M.
That’s 53-42. That’s huge.
Doesn’t this mean we’ll need to wait 2 weeks for Michigan results? Kinda crucial state there.
I’ll take the “yes” on $100 that its over 60% this year if anyone wants the no.
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But “I hate the incumbent” does drive people to the polls. Trump wasn’t an incumbent in 2016.
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I’ll take the no side. But only if proceeds go to charity.
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Susan Collins won her last election 37 FUCKING POINTS. She is down by 5. That is a 42 point swing in 6 years.
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Booked if the winner picks the charity
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i feel fairly comfortable turnout will hit 2008 levels, maybe not for votes that get counted, but for votes cast it should.
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Confirmed. Book it. You have the yes 60%+ turnout for 2020 POTUS election. I have the no.
$100 to winner’s choice charity
ETA: I can’t wait to donate to whatever charity it is you choose.
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Strongly disagree. 2018 is our best prior here. That had the highest turnout for a midterm in generations. I’m not saying Trump is definitely going to lose because, of course, shenanigans, and also becuase his people are turning out too, but this is going got be the highest presidential turnout race since WW2 IMO. If you’re registered to vote, and you don’t care enough to vote in THIS election ,then why the fuck are you registered to vote.
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538 model at highest point for Biden since it launched as well, 77/22.
Disagree with your differentiating between cloth and surgical masks. Three layer Surgical masks are more breathable and possibly slightly more effective than cloth masks. I only wear surgicals when I’m not using my painters respirator for really dangerous situations. I don’t think someone wearing surgical masks is a tell about their feelings on mask use.
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I wasn’t really commenting on the efficacy…more the commitment.
though tbh, most antimaskers I know just use balaclavas or bandanas
yeah that’s what I mean though. I don’t think you can conclude anything about the commitment to masks either. Plenty of people like me who are very committed to mask wearing who use only disposables. Everyone I work with, nearly all of who me are very committed, use the disposables.
Really? I read the opposite, although both are very close.
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yeah this times a thousand. In 2016 it was “I don’t like trump, he comes off as an asshole, he seems rude.” Now it’s “I’m out of work, my mother is dead, I’m homeschooling my kids, I can’t purchase toilet paper, I can’t watch my favorite sports, I can’t go on vacation, and I hear there might be some kids in concentration camps.”
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Here’s the CDC on surgical masks being better. Granted this is from back in June, has something newer come out?
https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/10/20-0948_article
I think the main reason the surgical masks are better is becuase they have a much finer weave than cloth so they catch more. It’s also why they’re more breathable.
Brett comes at you fast.
#TripleEntendre
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