Potential outcomes of Russian invasion of Ukraine discussion (WWIII/nukes?)

[suzzer99]

MOVED FROM OTHER THREAD

@ChrisV

@suzzer99

But somehow a subjugated Ukraine where Putin wins only by virtue of a) using a tactical nuke and b) NATO not responding in any real way - that doesn’t lead to nuclear war down the road. Just peace and a calm Russia. Got it.

Not responding militarily to any of the territorial aggression of the Soviet Union - Hungary, Czechoslovakia, Afghanistan - did not lead to the Soviet Union attacking NATO, it led to eventual detente and the dismantling of the Soviet Union. It is just unfortunate that the opportunity to turn Russia into a functioning country was then squandered. This attitude of “welp direct confrontation is inevitable so might as well get it over with” remains as wrong and dangerous now as it was during the real Cold War.

@anon10396289

Dude you don’t draw red lines in the middle of a war.

And red lines aren’t based on just being like “I DECLARE RED LINE!” and everyone has to act like you mean it. If Putin said “stop sanctioning my economy or nukes” the West is going to be like “uh huh, sure. nuke away”. The credibility or lack thereof of threats is based around the actual value of what is being fought over to both sides. If something is worth $1,000 to me and $1 to you, I know you are not actually going to tolerate the same level of risk to get it that I will.

Edit: And in the case of the Baltics, what would be at stake is the NATO alliance itself, which is the entire mechanism by which Russia is restrained. If the US were willing to throw that away then it would be clear evidence that there aren’t any red lines in Europe, really.

I’m talking about Putin breaking the nuclear taboo. You keep switching over to the current world. We basically agree on what’s being done right now in the current world (if not what was done to get us here). All this discussion (which again should be happening in the other thread!) has just been hypothetical over what would we do if Putin uses a nuke.

They have a dedicated hotline now specifically to avoid nuclear war. I am sure something like, “just so you know, if you do X we will do Y” would be very much in the topic of conversation. You don’t have to call it a red line.

Wording of things seems to be a really big sticking point in these debates.