Well the calculus would be that NATO would back down under threat of nukes. Is it worth risking nuclear war over the Baltics?
The whole point of drawing a red line now over nukes is to do everything possible to try to prevent these kinds of decisions. It’s the exact same concept behind NATO.
Wheels are still spinning.
https://twitter.com/tedlieu/status/1501350985037271040?s=20&t=xIc8t288ljuomT-EXpZb5w
Jimmy Carter unilaterally withdrew from our mutual defense treaty with Taiwan. Some senator sued him over it but the Supreme Court said I don’t know, that’s for you two branches to sort out. So, maybe.
You keep GOING ON AND ON AND FUCKING ON about how many posters will let Russia march in and take the Baltics without NATO aggression after already using tactical nukes (which LetsGambool’s post about the ‘best possible Putin win’ never even implied) in Ukraine. I guess if you think NATO going 1998 Yugoslavia on the Russian army in response (and that working) and not using nukes at all then cool, I’m not such an optimist.
Edit: To add, I think a lot of the disagreement in this thread comes down to stances we take on Putin’s mindset and plans. I’m not suggesting anyone is pro-nukes.
That’s my congressman!
Dude you don’t draw red lines in the middle of a war. You make your red lines clear before the war. NATO countries are red lines. Ukraine is not, because we’re not allied with them. Refusing to defend a country you’re not allied with doesn’t say anything about what you’ll do when your ally is attacked.
All I’m trying to do is establish a world where Putin uses a tactical nuke in Ukraine, how horrible that breaking the nuclear taboo would be for all mankind regardless of NATO’s response, and then work backward to figure out how severe the red line should be to keep it from happening. That’s all.
I’m not fantasizing about what NATO would do. I’m thinking about what they should do and say now to try to prevent it.
Yeah and I’d echo Keed’s point. The redline is already there in that there are countries within NATO.
But like Zikzak’s been saying, there are and have always been red lines around nukes. Maybe they need to be reiterated and clarified sometimes I dunno. Even you agree the West should respond if Putin launches a tactical nuke (edit: well never mind - see nuke thread). That’s a red line. We’re just arguing about what the West’s reaction should if Putin crosses the red line.
We really do have another thread for the nuke stuff guys. I’m trying not to talk about it here, but am just responding to others. I’m not going to bring it up again itt if I can help it.
Ha, sick troll (sorry if posted already).
Not responding militarily to any of the territorial aggression of the Soviet Union - Hungary, Czechoslovakia, Afghanistan - did not lead to the Soviet Union attacking NATO, it led to eventual detente and the dismantling of the Soviet Union. It is just unfortunate that the opportunity to turn Russia into a functioning country was then squandered. This attitude of “welp direct confrontation is inevitable so might as well get it over with” remains as wrong and dangerous now as it was during the real Cold War.
And red lines aren’t based on just being like “I DECLARE RED LINE!” and everyone has to act like you mean it. If Putin said “stop sanctioning my economy or nukes” the West is going to be like “uh huh, sure. nuke away”. The credibility or lack thereof of threats is based around the actual value of what is being fought over to both sides. If something is worth $1,000 to me and $1 to you, I know you are not actually going to tolerate the same level of risk to get it that I will.
Edit: And in the case of the Baltics, what would be at stake is the NATO alliance itself, which is the entire mechanism by which Russia is restrained. If the US were willing to throw that away then it would be clear evidence that there aren’t any red lines in Europe, really.
lol the Saudis not taking Biden’s calls is pretty gangster.
Time for the US to toss the Saudis to the side of the road and form an alliance with Iran.
(moved to nuclear thread)
Invent time travel.
https://twitter.com/Michael1Sheldon/status/1501362495721811968
https://twitter.com/Michael1Sheldon/status/1501365325111177223
https://twitter.com/michaeldweiss/status/1501294460981948418
Not sure if this guy knows what he’s talking about, but he seems to.