I understand your point that whatever our response is is well communicated to the Russians. I was wrong for pontificating about that like it was even a question.
But I’m not talking about that. I’m talking about the posters in the other thread who said it’s not worth risking nuclear war to respond to a Putin tactical nuke with a NATO all out attack, because we can’t risk nuclear war. Do you honestly think those same posters are ok with responding to a Putin tactical nuke with another nuke? Like that doesn’t risk all out nuclear war as much if not more?
Come on man. I’m just connecting the most basic dots. Anyone is perfectly free to tell me exactly which dot I got wrong instead of just saying “I didn’t say that!” If the only logical conclusion of your position is X, it doesn’t matter if you never actually say X out loud. See: Jordan Peterson’s whole shtick.
My sense is basically the entire foreign policy and international relations community is all on the same page here. There are unwritten rules that have basically kept the developed world somewhat safe after WWII. Of course it’s possible Putin just completely loses his mind but he absolutely knows if he nukes anyone humanity is over. This “make sure he knows” stuff is just silly.
Dunno, I’ve seen it posited that we might have to let a “Tactical Nuke” slide and I certainly see some logic in that. My understanding is that a Tactical Nuke is a really small nuke that is roughly equivalent in destructive ability to the biggest conventional bombs.
If you were Putin, would you accept that type of promise? He’s clearly committed tons of war crimes, so once he’s out of power, he’s going to be indicted.
Also, where would he go? Would you really trust a place like Iran to not just take as much of your $200 billion as they can confiscate and then either kill you or turn you over?
Switzerland, Saudi Arabia, some dacha in the third world. There’s plenty of historical precedent for ousted warlords to have a cushy retirement. With enough money it really does not matter what you’ve done.
Maybe - if he’s an indicted war criminal, I think it narrows his options a ton. For instance, I seriously doubt the Swiss would take him - they just broke with precedent to sanction him.
From the article you cited:
The international criminal prosecutions may pose a challenge, when deposing dictators like Moammar Gadhafi. Though the United States and its allies would love to see Gadhafi out of power, “Gadhafi has limited options,” according to Horton. “Once he leaves Libya, he does face the prospect of being arrested, shipped to the Hague for prosecution.”
Gadhafi knows this, which may make him more hesitant about stepping down from power. “The US is trying to work out something from Moammar Gadhafi,” according to Horton. “My own sources are telling me Uganda and Zimbabwe are the key states that they’re talking to.”
Even if the US and Gadhafi were able to work something out, Horton says: “It’s not clear that you can work out a deal that will give him absolute immunity.”
Silent? We should do nothing militarily if Putin uses nukes in Ukraine. Sanction Russia, sanction Russian leadership, indict various Russian leaders for war crimes. But don’t respond militarily in any way.
I live in SE Virginia, think there are several major military bases within 20 miles of my home so it’s likely a top 10 nuclear target and I’m a lock to be vaporized if Putin pulls the trigger.
Hopefully there’s some kind of anti-ICBM tech that would save me but I’ve got no idea.
What sanctions are left on the table that we haven’t done? Oil and gas? We’re almost there. You really think that’s going to move the needle on whether or not Putin uses a tactical nuke? That’s ridiculous.
No I don’t think any of the actions I mentioned will matter to the Russians if they decide to use a nuke in Ukraine. You can just shorten my suggested response to “do nothing” if you like.
Get the global community to bring China in on sanctions against Russia by threatening to sanction them just as hard if they don’t join in. This will almost entirely cut them off economically.
Use whatever cyber capabilities we have, turn off the lights in Moscow, etc.
Increase assistance to Ukraine to the max possible without joining in directly. Give them drones galore and keep the rest of the help coming.
Seize every asset from every oligarch possible, and make a big show of it. If it were me, I’d put a bunch of their yachts in one place and blow them up.
Give some kind of demonstration of force, perhaps test one of our tactical nukes. Let the world know he got away with one without a nuclear response, but he will not get away with another. Getting China in on this would be extremely helpful.
Secretly start trying to assassinate him, if they aren’t already.
Give him an off ramp. It’s gross to give him one but you have to.