Bullshit. Quote me, or someone. Arguing against your bullshit scaremongering about vaccines not preventing transmission is not the same thing as saying that vaccines prevent all transmission. It’s like you can’t conceive of a space between not stopping transmission at all and totally stopping all transmission.
Germ theory says that people who get infected would spread it. We’ve always known that the vaccine wasn’t perfect. The best case scenario for you here is that you didn’t understand basic things about germ theory. The more likely scenario is that you’re simply lying about our position to save face.
Your graph also does not support ‘vaccines don’t appear to be preventing transmission’.
You’ll note that you’re currently arguing that vaccines are:
- Essentially ineffective at preventing infection after 5 months
- Do not prevent transmission
Those are both obviously false positions that are currently being parroted by anti-vaccine people.
My god you are still upset about this? I mean my statement is basically saying it wasn’t proven science one way or another and it wasn’t when that was typed back in March or whatever. I’m not sure how that proves your point exactly. Covid case rates were quite low in March, experts were definitely saying maybe masks were not needed for vaxed people and the spring/summer surge was driven by the unvaccinated as near as I can tell.
I have been wearing a mask for months now with Covid cases being as high as they have been. When Covid case rates are low again I probably won’t be wearing a mask.
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He is still upset because it is obvious to anyone reading the thread that he was (way more) in the right over the consensus here (the reference to the 2nd vax was “the finish line”) yet for some reason i don’t understand no one admits it
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Geez, good job cutting off the CN quote to include only the part that sorta makes you look good. From that same post:
Risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection is minimal for fully vaccinated people. The risk of SARS-CoV-2 transmission from fully vaccinated people to unvaccinated people is also reduced.
Reduced, not eliminated.
Currently authorized vaccines in the United States are highly effective at protecting vaccinated people against symptomatic and severe COVID-19. Additionally, a growing body of evidence suggests that fully vaccinated people are less likely to have asymptomatic infection or transmit SARS-CoV-2 to others.
Less likely, not totally impossible.
And furthermore, this was back in May, pre-delta, which is substantially more transmissible than OG and alpha which were the dominant strains at the time.
But he ended up right and lifting the mask mandate was premature, no? Almost everyone in the thread argued otherwise. I read that part now and trolly mentions in numerous posts that it is “over” and calls the 2nd vax the “finish line”.
It wasn’t. We were wrong. The claim is that JT got lucky? Okay, but the reality is almost everyone here thought covid is about over for vax people. Denying it is weird cause the links are here.
Like the part of CN post you added is exactly that. It’s pretty clear that the CDC stance was wrong and the vax didnt reduce it enough. That was JT position. Why are we still arguing something so clear?
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I mean FTR I did later admit that I was wrong and apologize. So I disagree with Yuv’s assessment that no one owned up to the fact they were wrong and you were right on this issue. I also modified my own behavior once I realized it.
To be honest a lot of the problems here would at least move towards being solvable if people would just entertain the idea that maybe they aren’t always right rather than just further entrenching themselves in their ideas and in their team/side.
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If we all tell Johnny he was right, maybe he’ll settle down.
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I don’t think it is that clear at all. Vaccinated people have still not been shown to efficiently transmit covid, even delta (they might it’s not clear). The better argument, and the one made by multiple people at the time, was that unvaccinated people would stop wearing masks and no one would check that people were vaccinated.
Regardless, JT was trolling with false claims about me saying unvaccinated didn’t need masks. You’ll note that I’m presenting the argument and not taking a position on it. If you scroll up in the thread you’ll find my main objection was JT framing the issue. He was arguing that since cases were above what they were in early 2020, when there wasn’t widespread testing available, the move by the CDC was irresponsible.
JT could be right about masks all he wants, that argument of his remains dumb. His characterization of my position remains false.
edit: and i saw that churchill. You clearly don’t know what germ theory means at this point.
I’m pretty sure it will be a pretty damn good start. I understand that some people, like @WichitaDM did, but the dominant forces (for good, for the most parts) in this thread are still actively arguing otherwise.
I feel i need the patent-pending @6ix crazypills.
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I will give JT credit for making me more aware of how much better surgical masks were than cloth masks
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Ikes is wrong sometimes.
I’ll admit to being more optimistic than warranted. Way back in early 2021, I thought that when I got my second shot, I’d be freely walking around maskless and eating in restaurants. I only supported universal mask mandates (versus masks for only unvaccinated people) because there wasn’t any way to confirm someone’s vaccinated status. I thought they were effectively security theater for vaccinated people - more useful as a signal than an actual preventative.
That bliss listed somewhere around 2-4 weeks, and I never actually ate inside a restaurant or started going maskless indoors.
I’m also probably guilty of using “prevent” as a short hand for “help prevent” or “reduce” in the context of vaccines limiting the spread of infections. But I think that’s a dumb semantic difference, and I wish people would just drop that argument - everyone seems to be on the same page that vaccines reduce the spread of the disease.
I do think we need some more thoughtful discussion of when we can drop these mitigation procedures, though. At my school, we have both a vaccination requirement and a mask mandate. Over 90% of faculty, staff, and students are apparently fully vaccinated. And in my business school, that number is even higher. Yet there’s no discussion of when we might end the indoor mask mandate. (We’re currently at <1% positivity rate in the testing that’s done.)
On one hand, it’s a small inconvenience. But it’s still a meaningful inconvenience - I wear glasses, and when I’m teaching I have the option of wearing my glasses and getting them all fogged up, or not wearing my glasses and things being blurry. (I go without glasses.) I hope the school leadership has some kind of exit ramp in mind for when we can drop the mask mandate, but I’m not sure they do.
I also think it’s sometimes unclear whether people are talking about “what choices should society require everyone to make?” vs. “what individual choices should I make, given what others are doing (and, more importantly, what others are refusing to do)?”.
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What wasn’t recognized at the time was how much more transmissible the delta variant would be. The alpha and beta variants were distinct from the Wuhan strain in more subtle ways that didn’t have nearly as large an impact as delta. We saw India getting so badly hurt by it, but they had almost negligible vaccination and were going fully open when it was spreading, so it was pretty reasonable to think that their opening, population density, abundant poverty, etc. had as much to do with how much worse it was there than the new variant not just being incrementally more transmissible but radically so.
I also don’t think we really appreciated how that increase in transmissibility would impact the amount of the population you need to get vaccinated in order to reach herd immunity, even if the vaccines were equally effective against it, as WN noted above. We were thinking that, well, Trumpland might be fucked, but we’re all in ~70% vaccinated blue zones, should be fine. That was probably true against something as transmissible as alpha, but that’s not true when it’s as transmissible as chicken pox. We may not even be able to get to sufficient levels of vaccination even when kids can get vaccinated with how transmissible delta is.
So, did vaxxed people doing Before-Times things in June cause the summer surge of delta? No, not really. That was and is mostly unvaccinated people spreading an incredibly contagious virus. Did we need mask mandates in June in vaccinated communities? No, not really right then. Would they have stopped delta? No, probably not, because unvaccinated communities wouldn’t enforce them. There’s basically no community anywhere that would abide a mask mandate but not get vaccinated in large numbers. I would have rather seen vaccine passports, but those are politically untenable. Did mask mandates cause the drop in cases we see now? I had thought so, but now I’m not sure, and any anyone who thinks the mandates are what caused the drop should have to explain why Florida isn’t looking so bad right now despite doing nothing.
So, I think Johnny was more right than BoredSocial, but I think that in order for him to have really been right, and for the right reasons, we would have needed to see a Wuhan or alpha surge in response to lifting mask mandates. We don’t get to test that alternate reality, because delta hit before we saw one and changed things in a big way.
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I thought this was a sign your mask isn’t fit properly. I got better masks a while back because my sunglasses kept fogging up. Fixed it for me.
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” New York and New Jersey are going to be in the U.S. where I would look first for the transition to endemicity,” or the point when the virus is still circulating in the background but the disease is more manageable, said Andrew Noymer, an infectious-disease epidemiologist and demographer at the University of California, Irvine. “It’s also, quite frankly, the canary in the coal mine, conversely, if there is a significant winter wave.”
[quote=“KingTaxLV, post:4247, topic:6255”]
while watching a MI game
[/quote]
Wolverines are disease carrying vermin, that’s why so much Covid
Go. Let’s gunk up this thread with our petty in-state rivalry.
All meant in jest
But seriously Go Green
My odds of getting hospitalized from COVID are an order of magnitude lower thanks to the vaccine. I’m not constantly stressing out about my parents like I was pre-vaxx. The vaccines appear to offer robust and lasting protection even with delta. I concede that calling the 2nd vaxx a “finish line” was sloppy wording, and I certainly didn’t appreciate how long it would take for approval for kids to get the vaccine. Nonetheless my WAAF-meter has eased up dramatically. I still think it’s probably going to go endemic (think I’ve been saying that since the start) and as always mutations are an X-factor that can change everything.
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Fwiw i wasn’t trying to mock that, i thought the same as you did. I was more wrong than right.