CFR is about 5% if you go back a month in FL/TX/AZ - or at least it was like 10 days ago when I looked at it.
Be careful there were some anomalies. I look over the range of mid-May to recent. Once testing get into the more reasonable range so that the number of missed cases is probably in the 3-5x range, not 10x in March/April.
Just crossed to far northeast Wisconsin. No masks seen at rest stops. No signs. Just please stay out if you have symptoms.
Pretty much near 100% in Michigan. Leadership makes a big difference or should I say the asshole Wisconsin Supreme Court.
Passed thru an upper peninsula Michigan country that has recorded 3 cases. Total. Still everyone was masking.
Chuck Rhodes would be happy.
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Remember last time you asked me about sumo and I told you to bet on Hakuho, well he’s 8-0 so far.
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The problem is the only thing we have to go on for determining actual cases, afaik are antibody and swab studies - most of them run a while back. From those we can derive missed cases and IFR (for back in March/April). But if IFR is changing from earlier in the pandemic that makes it tough to use to guess at missed cases now.
Or am I missing some other way to figure out missed cases? Have there been recent swab or antibody studies in a place that’s behaving like FL in the US in the last couple months?
Also we know some people don’t develop antibodies, which makes all those antibody studies low. But we don’t know what having no antibodies means wrt to herd immunity.
Here’s a study that found from 2 to 13 times: C.D.C. Data Shows U.S. Coronavirus Infections Much Higher Than Reported - The New York Times
But unfortunately all of these were from May at the latest
I’m with you on predicted numbers but I think that puts us on the optimistic end of the spectrum for this forum.
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I can predict CNN headlines 2 weeks in advance. I am in fact a wizard.
Anti gay
Anti mask
Prolly racist
really sick
The plateau only exists because testing has reached its capacity.
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I saw “US senator” in the headline and got excited.
It’s just some Arkansas statehouse dickbag.
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I don’t think we know this. Cities issues new SD and mask measures and shut down bars. According to nunnehi all 3 states upped their SDI score significantly. It seems reasonable a lot of the plateau is real.
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The likeliest outcome is that some combination of masks, treatments, vaccines and fewer targets make new outbreaks less lethal.
Yeah, that was part of my motivation for posting ;-)
Covid was running rampant in the densest parts of NYC in a population that generally were less able to work from home when we had next to no testing and knew a lot less about treatments. What is happening in other US states right now is horrible and totally avoidable. But I think we aren’t going to see the same highs in terms of fatalities.
Now that Florida and Georgia are too dangerous, the popular place to ship people back and forth from LA to shoot commercials is Salt Lake City.
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Now that both cases and deaths have apparently leveled off in the largest AZ county, it’s possible to more meaningfully ask “what’s the lag between rising cases and rising deaths?”
Imagine taking the green curve above and shifting it backward one day at a time while measuring the similarity between the curves (basically the inverse delta between corresponding points). The result for this data is that similarity peaks at an offset of 17 days.
I’m sure different places will have different results for a bunch of different reasons (including bad data). But if modelers are using an assumption of 3 or 4 weeks lag, they may want to adjust downward.
Note: I haven’t found any counties in other states that have 2 good comparable peaks like this (i.e., both coming down from a recent peak).
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I simply don’t understand what it means to live in a world where the eviction process is started for ~50% of all renters at the same time. Who is going to rent all those units? Won’t rent drop like crazy if 50% of all renters are kicked out?
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If Tom Cotton was on fire I’d gets some marshmallows. Sorry to get u excited, it’s just a mini deplorable.
Someone struggling but is giving something is better than vacant right?