Wal-Mart and Target have already said they’re mandating masks but will not ask employees to enforce them. I’m compassionate to this as lately we’ve seen some MAGAs go full violence, and we’re definitely not paying a cashier enough to get punched, shot, or infected. Not even to merely get yelled at by Ken or Karen.
But once people get wind that their local mask mandate is just lip service, I predict red states alone will revert to the same thing we saw after the pandemic was first announced. Hesitant compliance–followed by rapidly resuming life as normal with zero containment measures. Too many people only do the bare minimum when someone is forcing them.
I don’t even think it’s that many people who are that selfish, but it doesn’t take that many to fuck us all.
I don’t know what pozzing 1 out of 5 infections means. But based on other places and antibody studies - I generally just multiply confirmed cases x 10 to get actual cases, especially if positivity % is high. It’s not super accurate - but nothing is.
You can also look at deaths and multiply by 200 or so. But that lags by 3-4 weeks. Using that and projecting Florida’s deaths I get about 14% of the population infected in a month (300 deaths/day).
But their death rate could be low due to youngs as the leading edge of this wave. .5% IFR might be too high given better treatments and and environment where olds/sick are isolating better (IE - not NYC or N. Italy) and youngs are out going crazy. And of course FL is stepping on the case count and death count wherever they can which is going to make the real infected count look lower.
We’ve had some reports in here of long delays on getting testing results, but it’s really looking terrible. Almost no states on covidtracking are reporting their testing backlock, but Santa Clara county, due to reporting on sample collection date and not test result date, they’re still revising upwards the totals on days 2 weeks ago. That’s a whole quarantine period!
Looks like the first ever “White Coat Summit” is this weekend on Capitol Hill. A Breitbart video is making the rounds in the derposphere of a press conference today that had a bunch of “doctors” in white coats presumably explaining how this is all a hoax. I didn’t watch it, but these people can’t actually be doctors, right? I’d like to be able to source the bullshit whenever I see this shared.
Ty. I googled him last night and didn’t find anything new which to me says he’s doing bad. If he was doing good Fox would blast it 24-7. This tweet does not inspire confidence in his recovery.
I’m talking about positive confirmed cases versus actual cases also.
We’ve been over this before and there’s no reason to rehash, but I think a multiplier to 10x is optimistic/too high right now. I think we’re capturing a greater percentage of cases than we did in the early outbreak.
Even when Florida is running 20%+ positive and this wave is much younger than NYC or Italy?
Even using IFR of .5% FL gets to 20% in like 2 months (which means backdate it one month). Do you think .5% is too low for IFR as well? I think it could easily be too high now.
Another factor that could make actual cases look low - is all those antibody studies that showed 10x confirmed cases might have been missing up to 50% who never developed antibodies and had mild or no symptoms. But then again we don’t know if those people have T-cell immunity now or if they can still spread it a second time, or can even get sick if they get it a second time. But if they’re immune now, then the antibody results from Europe that tended to peg actual cases at 10x confirmed cases are low (in terms of herd immunity).
My point is that even if places which have had their blowup aren’t at 20% now, most of them probably aren’t ridiculously far off. For me it’s hard to see sky’s the limit once a place hits around 20% - even if it’s 3 months from now. But that’s just pure guess on my part I’ll admit. Maybe there can be a second blowup.
I’m not 100% sure about this article but it’s making the points I’ve been trying to make.
“COVID-19 is the first disease in modern times where the whole world has changed their behavior and disease spread has been reduced,” Britton noted. That made old models and numbers obsolete. Social distancing and other reactive measures changed the R0 value, and they will continue to do so. The virus has certain immutable properties, but there is nothing immutable about how many infections it causes in the real world.
What we seem to need is a better understanding of herd immunity in this novel context. The threshold can change based on how a virus spreads. The spread keeps on changing based on how we react to it at every stage, and the effects compound. Small preventive measures have big downstream effects. In other words, the herd in question determines its immunity. There is no mystery in how to drop the R0 to below 1 and reach an effective herd immunity: masks, social distancing, hand-washing, and everything everyone is tired of hearing about. It is already being done.
Essentially, at present, New York City—where I live—might be said to be at a version of herd immunity, or at least safe equilibrium. Our case counts are very low. They have been low for weeks. Our antibody counts mean that a not-insignificant number of people are effectively removed from the chain of transmission. Many more can be effectively excluded because they’re staying isolated and distanced, wearing masks, and being hygienically vigilant. If we keep living just as we are, another big wave of disease seems unlikely.
I think deaths * 200 is probably a sound estimate of cases 3-4 weeks ago, but this would mean Florida’s ~150 deaths per day imply 30,000 cases per day 3-4 weeks ago, when 7DMA cases for Florida were like 7-10k. This would seem to imply like 3-5x cases were being picked up at that time, no?
But like I said, 20% herd immunity doesn’t seem impossible to me, just optimistic. 10% is probably pessimistic for a couple months of this degree of outbreak in Florida. I agree that it will start to become a factor.
Somewhat sad that slow burn tire fire over the next 6-10 months is an optimistic scenario.
Yeah, walking down the street. MB has required that for a couple weeks now (after requiring and dropping that early on). Compliance seemed much higher today than last week.
Unless IFR is actually .25% because olds/at-risk are isolating and the leading edge fo this wave heavily skews young.
I feel like .5% IFR for deaths right now in FL is conservative and maybe high. Although in 2 months the people catching this might be closer to a representative sample of the population - as successive generations of infection skew less young.
But I keep forgetting about schools. I agree sky’s the limit in any place that schools reopen.
Even if you’re a completely selfish person living in an ivory tower, you have to worry that the foundations might shake with these numbers. Pay the damn people.
Oh yeah - schools opening is a whole new pool of kids, teachers and parents who would otherwise be isolating responsibly - and completely opens up the chances for a third wave blowup imo.
I left out that big caveat to my theory. Any place schools open is in serious danger of a blowup.
Schools are worse than locker rooms and bars combined imo. Even if little kids are only half as infectious - as that one study showed - still bad. And teenagers are fully infections.
That seems bold. Based on 28 day offset cfr of 2.5% that’s still 1750-1800 so probably be some weekend makeups (Tuesday/wed) will get some days over 2000 easy.
The problem is the baseline is closer to 3.5% in the highly active states. Maybe it drops to 3% but I think 2.5% is a bridge to far and 2% is pure shenanigans.