Reminder: Belgium includes presumed Covid cases and deaths outside of hospitals (eg. nursery homes) in their stats which not all other countries do.
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Maybe I’ll have him send the covid ward at a local hospital 100$ in pizza pies if I win.
I covered professional sports as a reporter for six or seven years, so I have some insight into how these guys think. And by these guys, I mean young, rich, “invincible” professional athletes. I covered all four major sports, so I dealt with locker rooms full of various races. Universally they feel pretty invincible, even the smartest and most reasoned among them. I had an off the record conversation with an NFL player several years ago regarding new helmet technology. He was an extremely bright guy, and he was quite concerned about concussions and the lasting effects and being able to grow old and be “all there” for his kids. He said he wouldn’t wear one of the new helmets because he didn’t want to look like a dork, and he’d probably be okay himself anyway.
I have also played poker with MLB players who were out until like 4am gambling and pounding liquor before a 1pm game the next day. I woke up myself in like the 5th inning, turned on the TV to see the guy go 0-3 with 3 strikeouts.
I’m also currently watching the MJ documentary, and an interview comes to mind where he says of coming back early from his broken foot, that they were focused on the 10% risk of a career ending re-injury, but he was like “That means there’s a 90% chance it’s fine.”
These dudes are not the type to recognize their own limitations and to avoid risks.
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If having the NFL season was on a country wide ballot tomorrow 75% would vote to have the season. Should we have sports is an entirety different argument, but outside of this thread and ER wards aMuriCaa wants and will get their sports.
This is all true. I worked at Fenway for nine years and def know the mentality. I guess I was hoping staying in means not missing half or the whole season who mean more to them to them than a bender which previously would cost them one game. I concede I may have given them too much credit.
The mask law around here was like a couple weeks ago, but I guess there’s been a delayed response. Mask compliance seems way up today.
You mean like walking down the street? We’ve required masks in public places forever - which is the main thing imo.
It’s funny. I have 2 unique social circles. I have family and long time friends on liberal MA where I grew up, it I reside in deploraville SC now. The same people in MA that yelled and screamed at our partial shutdown followed by the grand re-opening of the south are doing the same activities they were horrified at 6-8;weeks ago. We have no shot in America. Team Biden will be filled w greed and grift too. People will refuse a vaccine. We have no plan. Maybe it’s time to flee after all .
What about inside restaurants and bars? Our mask requires u wear one at sat Target, but u can remove them to eat and drink. Makes zero sense .
Well, it looks like we’re going to see a new, raggedy plateau in COVID for a little while. States with catastrophic outbreaks seem to fall in line for a week or two, which halts the growth. Meanwhile, other states are all bubbling up at once.
There’s been a renewed push towards mask compliance. This is encouraging, and it might possibly be enough to halt growth in the virus even with some packed out nightclubs and such pushing things the other way.
But in another sense, it’s discouraging: this is probably the most diligent people are going to be about mask compliance for the foreseeable future. People will probably slack off within a few weeks, as they’ve tended to in the past.
My crystal ball:
- Awkward, jagged plateau for about four to eight more weeks.
- 7DMA of ~1,000 deaths on August 1 turns to ~2,000 on September 1.
- “Third wave” begins mid-September to mid-October as people fall off the wagon and exponential growth starts from a much higher base with much lower margin for error. Northern climates also start to go indoors more often as weather turns bad.
- The sky is the limit for the third wave.
Where am I wrong? Besides describing this as the third wave, which I know will be controversial.
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Of course he does. The guy is an anti-semite!
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Raggedy plateau is a good description.
But I think the 3rd wave should be tempered somewhat by ~20% herd immunity (assuming most have some immunity). More importantly those 20% are among the most likely to get covid - essential workers - especially stuff like meat-packing plants and distribution centers, nursing homes caught unprepared, big families living in close quarters, invincible young/healthies, dumbass Republicans and anti-maskers. People like me will still be working from home and in quarantine.
So unless immunity doesn’t last for a big chunk of people, I don’t see where the virus can draw from a huge new pool to draw from go “sky’s the limit”. I feel like we’ll be more like a tire fire that keeps burning steady for months and months.
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They can’t afford to know them.
Believing they’re invincible is what allows them to the crazy shit they do on the field.
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Maybe they’ll learn after a few teams have outbreaks. Who knows? It’s still just counting on too much self control and luck in my opinion. One guy screwing up is all it takes. One guy getting unlucky is all it takes.
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Found this data source for FL COVID hospitalizations: https://bi.ahca.myflorida.com/t/ABICC/views/Public/COVIDHospitalizationsCounty?%3AshowAppBanner=false&%3Adisplay_count=n&%3AshowVizHome=n&%3Aorigin=viz_share_link&%3AisGuestRedirectFromVizportal=y&%3Aembed=y
9,098 COVID patients statewide in FL
I’ve marked below approximately when NY had the same number of hospitalizations
Love you suzz, but your track record on covid-19 is to find the optimistic end of the reasonable range and then shuffle a little farther into optimistic land, and that’s generally been your take. So far, we’re operating closer to the other end of the range and I’m not sure why I should be convinced otherwise.
20% herd immunity? Maybe in NYC… Any evidence we’re anywhere near that level elsewhere?
All indications are that we’ll have a third wave - perhaps step is the better term, and that’s probably what’s in store for us this winter.
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Shouldn’t FL/TX/AZ be at about 20% when this blast is done? That’s what I’ve been assuming. 10x confirmed cases is about 20% of FLs population now - and they’re nowhere near done with this wave. Same for LA (both LAs actually) at some point. LA county 10x confirmed cases is closing in on 20%.
My general assumption is that there’s ~20% of the population as low-hanging fruit for the virus - out there basically waiting to get it. If they haven’t gotten it yet, it’s just a matter of time. After that the virus should have a tougher pool to draw from - people who are in a better position to not get it.
People who can work from home, wear masks, take the virus seriously, or are retired. Like me and pretty much everyone I know - including most of my family. My mom is a little risky for my tastes, but she’s not out there doing really dumb stuff. Same for the rest of her side of the family. My Dad is super paranoid.
It’s going to be hard to penetrate into that pool imo unless we all just give up trying to be careful at some point.
Also I’m not saying it’s going to die out at 20% penetration. My only issue was with “sky’s the limit”. Have we seen any place completely blow up twice yet?
Please don’t box me in as the “suzzer said it would all go away at 20% infected” champion. I’m just saying I expect more of a slow burn - as it’s hard to see a second blow up after a place has had their first blow up. Unless people just really get sick of isolating and say fuck it - which is always possible I guess.
Or immunity wears off after a few months. If that happens in abundance we should start hearing more and more about soon.
And here’s Texas
If we’re pozzing 1 out of 5 infections during the second wave, it would take Florida 80-90 days of 10,000 pozzes (50,000 cases/day) to have 20% herd immunity. Not super unreasonable but maybe a bit optimistic. If we’re pozzing 1 out of 3 or 4 infections, suddenly the situation is a lot more grim for herd immunity benefiting them much.
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