Some random thoughts on COVID-19 here in Philadelphia, as I likely only have a couple months left here. Maybe a month ago, I’m not sure of the exact date because of my isolation, they closed down a street near me and gave the restaurants/bars on each side a lane to do outdoor dining. Great! But unfortunately the tables are way too close together for me to feel comfortable. They’re picnic tables and if people from two tables tried to stand up at get out at once, they’d bump each other. In fact, 90% of Americans would be hard pressed to get up and out without bumping someone at the other table.
Meanwhile there were huge outdoor pool parties right around me on Fourth of July weekend, and those pools have been in steady use ever since with minimal distancing and no masks.
The 7-day average of cases has gone from approximately 100 on 7/12 to approximately 135 on 7/23. They seem to be tracking based on the date the test was administered, so the last week shows a decline but it could just be because it hasn’t backfilled yet. This indicates in the neighborhood of 3% growth, and an R0 in the 1.15 to 1.20 range.
Of course you can’t attribute it to any one thing - it could be outdoor dining, outdoor drinking, pools, or the combination. My guess is that as administered, outdoor dining and pools are similarly safe, and outdoor drinking is the most risky because inebriation = reduced distancing. I am also guessing that with ACTUAL proper precautions, these things could all be done while keeping R0 ~ 1. Proper precautions would include proper distancing, masks whenever possible, and perhaps some plexiglass dividers for like the lounge chairs by pools and in between outdoor tables at restaurants.
So in that sense it’s somewhat encouraging. On the other hand, it does look like the cases last week are all above the 7 day average, which is bad news. Authorities are saying it’s due to family/in-home transmission. So it’s possible the lack of an initial increase was simply due to missing asymptomatic cases in healthy 20-somethings who were out partying, and now we’re seeing that they actually were pozzing the fuck out of each other.
Unfortunately they have now also opened up gyms with some restrictions that are of course not being followed. There are capacity limits, you’re supposed to keep your distance, and masks are required at all times. I walked past our gym the other day and counted 7 people, 5 with masks, but two pairs of two within 6 feet of each other… They could be from the same household, though.
The day before that there were two people in there, both had masks, but one was chin strapping it as she did her sets. GJGE!
Random other absurd tidbit: masks are NOT allowed in the pool, because they’re a risk of drowning. Look, I get it, but it’s not like people are trying to swim laps in a fucking mask. 99% of people in the pool are chilling, drinking a beer, hanging in the hot tub, etc. Do they really think that adults are too stupid to pull the mask off if it gets soaked?
Then again, it’s 2020 in America so maybe the answer to “Do they really think that adults are too stupid to (literally anything)?” is just yes, absolutely yes.
