COVID-19: Chapter 4 - OPEN FOR BUSINESS

Uh, open and shut assault and battery, right? LAW AND ORDER!!

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Last trip too Walmart in SLC,10% compliance aside from employees. Went to Mexican grocery store today, <10% customers with masks. Employees with masks but worn on the chin in a couple cases. When the shit really hits the fan hereā€¦ IDK if people will care.

I have a out 20 SC friends like this. They just refuse to acknowledge it

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There was a thing going around Facebook for awhile where people were purposely going down the wrong way because stores only put those arrows there to force you down aisles you didnā€™t want to go down to increase sales.

My sis in law said, ā€œI thought this whole pandemic thing was over?ā€

They are moving out of state and we were hoping to say goodbye in person when they come home to pack, but they are taking zero precautions, and her husband is the sort to violate others boundaries to prove his #freedom. So we have made the tough decision to say goodbye from afar.

I am sad. I love my nephew to death. I am hopeful for his future but have to admit I feel a certain grief knowing I will likely not hear from him for years, and his parents keep him isolated in fringe conspiracy theories. It was exciting to see his mind expand almost instantly when we were spending more time together, and he expressed sadness that his parents are unwilling/unable to engage with him in the same way. I remember how awful it was being surrounded by people who taught me that being reflective, intellectually curious, and kind would always deserve being punished.

Just crossing my fingers. I know what abuse and ignorance I grew up in, but look at me now! A mod at Unstuck. Though the darkness in me still yearns to ban zikzak just for the lulz.

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Went to the grocery yesterday in my town in Japan, which hasnā€™t had a single recorded COVID case, in a prefecture that hasnā€™t had a new recorded case in over two months.

Mask compliance was 99% (there was literally a single person among about 100 without one).

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Why canā€™t you keep in touch with your nephew?

Why didnā€™t you wear a mask?

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Do you think theyā€™re really going to have a July basho? Seems kind of crazy since theyā€™re already lost one rikishi.

A Japanese friend had to go back after grad school. Sheā€™d really grown to like it here in Utah. She didnā€™t want to go back to Tokyo even when she found out they were getting a Costco, lol. Japan sounds great to me.

They control his access to anyone outside the home.

She could maybe look into getting a job as a Japanese language instructor? As you know, the Mormons are really into language learning.

SLC is a pretty great city from what Iā€™ve seen of it. Very underrated.

I had a ton of Japanese friends in the U.S., and although they all say they love America and want to stay, almost all of them end up moving back to Japan for one reason or another.

Having Costco definitely helps. Still waiting on Trader Joeā€™s though.

Hope so. Iā€™m suffering through withdrawal.

New visualization, data last updated 6-16 (I hate weekend updates).

Here I am trying to decided on my driving trip from PA through OH, MI, WI, MN and back. (Will cut through IL and IN on way back but work to stay in car). WI will be all along Lake Superior. Overnight Stops to see family in small home town in Michigan and really tiny town in Wisconsin. Sadly Also Minneapolis burbs but itā€™s all my kids who thankfully have my values.

What I want is decreasing short term trend (the 7 day) and low stable or declining 14 day case density of <1 per 1,000.

The 7 day is a sloped average. The 14 day is a simple sum of positives divided by population. This is my proxy for how many contagious people are running around.

Iā€™m clearly not in the 0 risk camp in covid-life but I do want to make reasonable reductions in risk. As I expect numbers to go back up this fall, this summer is may be my only chance to see my Family in 2020.

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https://twitter.com/EthicalSkeptic/status/1274839222541844483

https://twitter.com/EthicalSkeptic/status/1274840269293326339

https://twitter.com/EthicalSkeptic/status/1274840839865409541

The idiots on Chiefsplanet are in love with this guy.

Do they not get that there is a 2-3 week lag between new positive cases and death? Not sure why i am asking because of course they donā€™t. The deaths now are coming from the absolute bottom of case numbers from later May.

Someone asked me about rising cases and declining deaths.

1- the lag factor
2-red state reporting
3-hopefully the rising states are at least managing nursing homes better than N.Y./NJ/PA
4. I expect the case wave to be younger folks right now. The second two week rise in those states will likely include a significantly higher fraction of olds. Wo case demographics itā€™s hard to make conclusions, so this is my guess.
5. See 2. Seriously.

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Yeah also better treatments, and not just younger but at-risk people taking it more seriously than the first wave when the might have gotten hit out of the blue.

Also there could be something about summer and more absolute humidity that leads to a lower average initial dose.