They control his access to anyone outside the home.
She could maybe look into getting a job as a Japanese language instructor? As you know, the Mormons are really into language learning.
SLC is a pretty great city from what I’ve seen of it. Very underrated.
I had a ton of Japanese friends in the U.S., and although they all say they love America and want to stay, almost all of them end up moving back to Japan for one reason or another.
Having Costco definitely helps. Still waiting on Trader Joe’s though.
Hope so. I’m suffering through withdrawal.
New visualization, data last updated 6-16 (I hate weekend updates).
Here I am trying to decided on my driving trip from PA through OH, MI, WI, MN and back. (Will cut through IL and IN on way back but work to stay in car). WI will be all along Lake Superior. Overnight Stops to see family in small home town in Michigan and really tiny town in Wisconsin. Sadly Also Minneapolis burbs but it’s all my kids who thankfully have my values.
What I want is decreasing short term trend (the 7 day) and low stable or declining 14 day case density of <1 per 1,000.
The 7 day is a sloped average. The 14 day is a simple sum of positives divided by population. This is my proxy for how many contagious people are running around.
I’m clearly not in the 0 risk camp in covid-life but I do want to make reasonable reductions in risk. As I expect numbers to go back up this fall, this summer is may be my only chance to see my Family in 2020.
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https://twitter.com/EthicalSkeptic/status/1274839222541844483
https://twitter.com/EthicalSkeptic/status/1274840269293326339
https://twitter.com/EthicalSkeptic/status/1274840839865409541
The idiots on Chiefsplanet are in love with this guy.
Do they not get that there is a 2-3 week lag between new positive cases and death? Not sure why i am asking because of course they don’t. The deaths now are coming from the absolute bottom of case numbers from later May.
Someone asked me about rising cases and declining deaths.
1- the lag factor
2-red state reporting
3-hopefully the rising states are at least managing nursing homes better than N.Y./NJ/PA
4. I expect the case wave to be younger folks right now. The second two week rise in those states will likely include a significantly higher fraction of olds. Wo case demographics it’s hard to make conclusions, so this is my guess.
5. See 2. Seriously.
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Yeah also better treatments, and not just younger but at-risk people taking it more seriously than the first wave when the might have gotten hit out of the blue.
Also there could be something about summer and more absolute humidity that leads to a lower average initial dose.
He does. It’s written on the first image. Median time from first symptoms to death is 14 days.
He is of course right that hospital admissions and fatalities are important to watch, but I’m not sure what his point is with that first graph. The endpoint is 21 June, therefore hospitalisations (which have a 7 day delay from first symptoms) reflect the testing numbers on 14 June. If you look at 14 June, there wasn’t much more than an 11% rise in reported cases over baseline. There’s now an 11% rise in hospital census. Isn’t that roughly what we’d expect to see?
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I will say, and maybe I’m ponied here, that this graph is suggestive that some of the rise in Florida is driven by better testing. This is the mean age of positive test results.
There’s no reason for the mean age of cases to actually decline, instead this reflects better detection of mild cases. That said it’s a fairly modest decline.
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OPEN FOR BUSINESS is more likely to attract people in lower risk categories than high risk categories? And people who are engaging in OPEN FOR BUSINESS are more likely to get pozzed?
Yes and then they go visit mom and grandad and …
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I do not understand the morality of someone being on the “its not that bad” side of a pandemic that has killed almost half a million people.
It is so, so much worse for these people to be on Twitter than the ones calling others a fucktwit.
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Let me preface this by saying that anyone named Rational Skeptic is obviously a clown and you shouldn’t listen to them. It’s clear that places like Florida that are going YOLO are resulting in massive increases in deaths.
Having said that, there is a legitimate disparity between deaths and new cases. The # of new cases had clearly leveled out by June 1st. We’re not seeing anything like that in the number of deaths per day three weeks later, it’s continuing to decline. What’s going on? We know testing is increasing dramatically and it’s axiomatic that more tests = more cases as we detect more people with mild symptoms. It’s also possible that new treatments/procedures are leading to fewer fatalities. It’s also very clear that the reopening is leading to increased spread of COVID.
I AM NOT SAYING ALL OF THIS IS DUE TO INCREASED TESTING ALONE. But it’s clear that increased testing is absolutely playing a role. What I’m basically saying is that there are many confounding factors at play, no one should feel confident making any big dick-swinging predictions.
I am a rational skeptic, I have named myself after… an Egyptian god. Like skeptical people do.
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Ethical skeptic dammit! There’s nothing rational about it.
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My life would undoubtedly improve.
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