It’s pretty clear the death rate is higher in Wuhan due to the health system getting overwhelmed. And Italy is trending that way. Otherwise I agree that the numbers are hard to quantify at this point. But the experts are used to having to make estimates considering these kinds of factors. At least I hope they are.
The question is whether or not there’s any reason to think our medical system won’t get overwhelmed in various cities, given that the government is doing ~nothing to stop the spread. We’re not testing nearly enough, and it seems to be totally on states and localities to prepare.
Why should I believe that 50,000 New Yorkers won’t get this at once?
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Definitely a likely place to scale up.
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Another factor in a lower death rate could be people who know they’re at risk taking extra precautions when they’re braced for it - as most of the US pretty much is now.
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but note that he doesn’t emphasise that people should stay at home if they are ill. He is completely desperate to stop further declines in the share markets. Also no doubt people not working would affect job figures.
That is absolutely not clear.
The numbers from the three non-Wuhan provinces are also inconsistent with each other. This is not useful data for understanding the death rate from the disease.
You’re never going to know the real death rate when some 20% are asymptomatic and others have very mild symptoms unless you mandatorily test everyone in some region when there’s an outbreak.
I know one place I don’t want to be right now - a hospital. They’re disease vectors in the best of times.
A friend of mine tried to commit suicide by taking a bunch of pills. Every time they were about to release her from the hospital she’d come down with some new malady. Finally she had one of the ER docs tell her she should get the hell out of the hospital because it’s making her sick.
There was a “cold” running around my extended family something like a few months ago that had an unusually long lingering cough.
That’s the one.
Add me to the list of peeps who’ve had this. Even had a mild fever one night but was completely gone in the morning. Cough is still lingering tho.
This is what random sampling is for.
Shrugging off people going to work like he did is condoning it. It’s not hard. He should be telling sick people to stay home if at all possible, but he’s just shooting from the hip and trying to pretend this whole thing is no big deal that will go away.
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I had that too. Coughing for at least a month but no other symptoms
I have that right now, cough lasted for a month and counting. Except that I was susceptible to “acute sinusitis” because I have a deviated septum in my sinus. (Had surgery, only moderate improvement, normal symptom is permanent stuffy nose) On antibiotic now for the cough.
Weird that everyone is bringing up this coughing thing. I caught something like that last April. The cough lasted for a few months. Near the end it was bad enough that it was interfering with my sleep. Ended up getting prescription cough suppressant pills and it went away. Maybe we’re all just getting old.
https://twitter.com/NYCMayor/status/1235559817135058948
NYC? Things are about to get wild.
Truant boy is an excellent name for a young school child
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