Coronavirus (COVID-19)

It’s all those potatoes. Try eating the skins too and report back.

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Four more with coronavirus today in the CR.

It’s not at community spread just yet. Eight of the infected came back from Italy within the last 2 weeks while the other four are family members related to some of those eight. All 12 are currently hospitalized.

Just feels like it’s a matter of time before it becomes community spread though. Next week, a bunch of my students are travelling to Austria and others are in Israel right now. Wonder what’s gonna happen.

Yes actually. Jones has been selling a coloidal silver potion for the last month and a half that is guaranteed to stop coronavirus.

Edit: I know this not because I listen to Alex Jones, but the excellent podcast Knowledge Fight

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Apparently one of the students in my school just came back from a week in the Italian Alps.

School administrators demanded that he be kept out of the school and away from anybody who goes to the school for 14 days as a precaution. Geez, I really feel it’s gonna hit the student population eventually.

Not to beat a dead horse here, but the reported death rate is meaningless if you don’t test the entire population that could plausibly have the disease. Otherwise, you are selecting on the dependent variable, your estimates are hopelessly biased, and variations in the estimates from sample to sample probably reflect variations in the bias more than anything.

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Is it on video? “He was reaching for my gun” is THE standard cop lie. It’s even ahead of “stop resisting”.

https://twitter.com/cle4uoh/status/1235239376633892867

https://twitter.com/matthewstoller/status/1235239684437090305

A lot of sketchy-sounding stuff in those comments.

https://twitter.com/paperboynyc/status/1235243480521244674

https://twitter.com/TravelLover909/status/1235432071453011969

https://twitter.com/DeeVP/status/1235271713392406528

I wonder if the next stage of this is a lot of people dying of viral pneumonia w/o ever being tested. Although healthcare workers would revolt I guess.

It does kinda make you wonder. I got a weird cold that I’ve never gotten before in late Dec. Picked it up in Vegas. First week mild, second week pretty bad, then two more weeks of coughing. A lot of people in my office described the same thing. I heard a radio DJ in Kansas City describe it exactly like that and said his Dr. told him he had the croups.

Could also be that initial exposure is a lot heavier in places where no one is even worried about it yet and taking zero precautions. I read that initial exposure level could be a factor in severity. Iran and Italy would fit that bill as they seemed completely unprepared.

Ground zero in Wuhan was the Hunaan Fish Market. That sounds like a swell place to just go crazy if you’re a flu virus.

You must wax.

Diarrhea is nothing. You can rinse that out. It’s the nutella/melted milk dud ones you gotta worry about.

Hmmm… My cold was basically ~a week of very consistent but mild coughing, then about 3 days of moderate sore throat and lots of congestion (the second day I started hitting the zinc products, tons of jalapenos, tons of water and green tea, tons of veggies), then a few more days of mild sore throat still some congestion, and now runny nose. The mild cough has continued throughout but it hasn’t been as consistent. Also, I haven’t had a fever once and I’ve checked almost every day. I was checking 2-3 times a day when the sore throat was starting.

Seasonal flu prevalence is estimated statistically:

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I’m a paramedic in flyover country and anecdotally we’ve seen a pretty significant increase in cases with severe “flu-like” symptoms. To me the respiratory component has been worse than is usual for A/B but again purely anecdotal. Could just be variance but I think it’s done been out ¯_(ツ)_/¯

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The reports that there are two strains would make a lot of the pieces fit together. If there’s a killer strain S that knocks its victims off their feet too quickly to propagate alongside a milder strain L that people are likely to work and travel with, you can piece together a reasonable story. The original outbreak was the killer strain that was largely shut down, and then the milder strain developed and is the one that’s spreading unchecked around the globe. Add to that the fact that no one has any fucking clue how prevalent coronavirus infection is, and maybe the cases that are being reported in Western countries are a self-selected subset of a much bigger population that already has the disease. It would actually be great news, especially if the L strain confers some degree of immunity to the S strain.

The only other explanation for the data is some combination of China cooking the books and/or the samples being hopelessly biased. It is a basic high-school statistics problem to demonstrate that these samples are not drawn from the same population:

image

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Could also be the total cases in Wuhan (the size of NYC) were actually much higher than 67k.

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Absolutely they are. That was the main thing I had in mind that would hopelessly bias the samples.

We had a similar thing run through our office (in FL) in January.

Or it just overwhelmed the medical infrastructure in Wuhan because there were no real preventative measures to limit the spread. Everywhere else they were ahead of it a bit and the medical facilities did not get overwhelmed.

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Probably just a coincidence. But I’ve never had a cold like that in my life.

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1235573492004904961

I’m kinda with Trump on this one. Let’s stick to the stuff he obviously said.