I think Warren’s crash was a perfect storm of sexism (some of it latent BS association with Hillary), terrible timing of her peak, the appeal of Bernie and his straightforward message, the Knives Out approach she and her plan got from all candidates and the media at once, the fawning over Buttigieg, and other shit.
Bernie being a strong candidate hurt her. But I also think that she took a lot of the fire when the media first started the “Uh Oh Socialism” bullshit. Sanders’ fans are diehard so they can just eyeroll at it, but I bet Warren’s got nervous and went looking for someone more “electable.”
And I’m sure some of it has to do with her decisions, her charisma as a candidate, and weaknesses in her campaign, but I imagine that will all get weighted too heavily in any discussion of her collapse.
PS I’ve never seen Knives Out so I have no idea if that phrase is appropriate. I just meant everyone coming at her at once.
Any chance they canvassed your home before and whoever answered the door said they weren’t a Bernie supporter and were a potential Warren supporter? Generally in the late stages, the canvassing is based on getting out the vote of known supporters, not winning people over… So they’re specifically targeting doors of people they think will vote for their candidate.
This is not true, especially right before the election. I knocked on doors the day before and on election day in 2018, and it was specifically targeting people who said they supported the candidate and would vote to remind them and make sure they had. There was zero effort to knock on doors of unknowns or people who needed convincing at that point, it was purely a GOTV operation.
Shouldn’t they have come back right before the election to follow up and GOTV?
If one of them wins the nomination, maybe get word to their people to be more efficient in the general so we can win no matter who the nominee is? lol
If we lose NH in the general cause some field organizer is wasting like half their door knocks, I will seriously lose my shit.
Yes, and just in terms of the perception of HRC and her campaign, she didn’t help matters by drawing some direct lines to the HRC campaign by hiring some of their people.
There was some bad luck and perhaps bad strategy there.
Yeah this is the thing, and contrast it with her flip flop on healthcare. The support she was getting was a lot of people like me… I was between Bernie and Liz, and I felt like they were both genuine and she was more electable by selling herself as slightly less extreme. Well regulated capitalism versus democratic socialism. I felt like she’d be able to more effectively pull in voters who typically go for establishment candidates and build a broad coalition, while getting knifed in the back by the establishment less.
But when she flip flopped on healthcare, that was a wrap. She wasn’t a genuine candidate for me anymore, she was changing her position to try to tack to the middle to win. Timed horribly on her part, and thank God for that, or we might not have found out until she won the nomination and we were stuck with her.
Then contrast that with Bernie being 100% reliably for what he’s for.
Ugh I bought the wrong no. I bought no to win at 97c for the free money, should have bought the no to second for the mild risk but way higher payoff.
Although, based on the 538 numbers it might not be quite as crazy as it seems. Buttigieg gets between 16 and 31% in 80% of sims, Klobuchar gets between 6 and 16% in 80% of sims. So that implies approximately a 10% chance she beats Buttigieg. I would have thought more like 5% before looking.
It’s apparently an allusion to a John Wayne movie but the weirdest part is being overlooked, that the audience laughed like, “Haha I get that topical reference!”
That should be a litmus test. Say a deep cut John Wayne line and if your supporters get it then, OK, boomer, you can’t be president.
Figure in blue box is what you can back at (Yes), pink box is for laying (No) and apply to % of vote won.
1.2 = 1/5 on
5.3 = 4.3 to 1
etc
Likely to be far more accurate than lolPI and it’s what I use in other markets as an indicator but YMMV.
I’ve looked into arbing Betfair vs PI in Dem nominee market where there are staggering differences, but the fees on PI are so exorbitant I can only get green for about $20 lol so not worth the effort.
Warren’s late summer surge was the anomaly, not her current status. Look at Trolly’s table description from over a year ago - “questionable political instincts”. She’s always been a problematic candidate. The interesting question is what made us forget that fact for a couple months.
Warren’s early debates were very strong indeed. And for a long time it was just the Native American thing… which as a one off can be explained away as a fluke. Since then of course she’s made multiple major political miscalculations… so the fluke explanation is dead and buried.
Yeah, this is exactly right. I liked Warren for being solidly liberal but likely more pragmatic than Bernie, in that I figured something like what was eventually her proposal, were it enacted, would be a win, and she’d be more likely to get that win than a more strident Sanders. But the biggest failure of the Obama administration was starting the negotiations from what you assumed to be the compromise solution to try to make Republicans look unreasonable, when instead they’d just paint that position as extreme even when they were on the record as being for it in recent memory. Warren didn’t learn that lesson.
I get enraged at the Paul Krugman “you can’t pass that tomorrow, chessmate” argument. “Advocating single payer is dumb because the GOP Senate won’t pass it.”
Do these nimrods think Republicans had the votes when they started advocating trickle down economics? The reason we don’t have single payer is the Democratic Party hasn’t been pounding it into voters heads for a generation!
This post made me learn that whilst New Hampshire does have a law against ‘ballot selfies’, a court ruled that it violated the 1st amendment and the supreme court refused to hear the case. Phew, I was worried I’d have to grass you up to the feds for a minute.
What enrages me is that the Democrats haven’t been spending 200M a year on propaganda/education in rural states since they started losing them in the 80’s. Just ceding that many senators to the GOP has had predictable results… and rural people aren’t naturally that far right wing. It’s not very hard to turn farmers against fat cat bankers… they’ve only hated them for five hundred years or so.
