2020 isn’t a favorable map for the Senate. 2022 is the favorable map. It’s in play because of idiocy from so many GOP there, but if you’re putting your hopes in getting the Senate in 2020, unless something major changes you might be disappointed. And that shouldn’t be thought of as a ‘loss’ on election night.
It’s vital to keep the House, and I don’t want them taking their eye off the ball. Imagine losing the House and Trump wins. There’s no oversight on Trump anymore, but hey we got the Senate (in the unlikely scenario that could happen with losing the House).
Most likely: Keep House, tighten Senate disadvantage (we’ll win Senate if McConnell and Cornyn are got)
In Play A: Keep House, win Senate
In Play B: Keep House, lose Senate worse
In Play C: Lose House, lose Senate
The fact that it’s so uncertain where this is leaning is problematic. People are in this thread worried about beating a guy who has unquestionably lost a lot of support since his election. Back then a lot of people voting for him were justifying their vote based on ‘well maybe he’s not, or maybe he’s this’. That’s gone. You’re in or out now. Much of his ‘new’ support is probably coming from Nazis who now might vote.
It doesn’t seem to me that Trump has lost support. The chart here doesn’t show before the election, but his approval before the election was a few points lower and there was a substantial inauguration bump. Other than that, Trump was a little off in 2017 running a bit below 40% approval, but recovered in 2018/19 running a bit above 40% approval.
I don’t think we’re at all in a better position than 2016 and the question is just whether the Dem candidate does better than HRC or not.
The problem with this and the previous post is that you don’t get into voter suppression, gerrymandering, domination at the court level… There are plenty of efforts in place from the GOP to make sure they can lock in long-term rule by their minority of voters. If they win everything again in 2020, they may be able to lock in decades of rule as long as they can get ~35% of the national vote. If not decades of rule, decades of holding the line on the laws they pass via keeping 51 in the Senate.
The Senate can investigate via committees, as well, so it has oversight power. Given a choice between having 51 in the Senate and 218 in the House during a Trump presidency, I’d MUCH MUCH MUCH prefer 51 in the Senate due to being able to block judges/appointments.
And the reason taking the Senate in 2020 is so important is that a lot of the people who are going to turn out to defeat Trump are going to think alls well in 2020 and stay home, on top of the normal wave effect in the midterm election. If Dems only get the House and White House in 2020, Mitch will block all SCOTUS appointments, Dems will move zero legislation, there will likely be a red wave in 2022 and 2024 will be just as high stakes as 2020…
I agree it’s a bad map, but it’s critical that we overcome the odds and take the Senate. I won’t be jumping off a bridge if Dems get the White House and House, but I won’t be going crazy with celebration beyond the initial “Thank God we got rid of Trump,” celebration.
The Senate can investigate via committees, but can’t impeach (not that they’d necessarily be able to get the votes anyway).
I’m just looking for a detente (win pres, win House, hope for Senate). I won’t jump up and down if they don’t get all three, but I’ll be pretty despondent if we lose the House.
I saw an argument against same-day primaries that made a ton of sense. Basically, it would exacerbate all the current campaign finance problems we have now. There would be no time or ability for an unknown/dark horse candidate to have any sort of chance. No Carter, Clinton, Obama, Bernie, (could be argued that even warren or Harris wouldn’t have a shot either).
The only way it might actually work is if they all switched to ranked choice voting at the same time.
Impeachment is kind of a pointless power in a world where Nancy Pelosi is still Speaker and the GOP still controls the Senate. You’ll never get to 67, ESPECIALLY if he wins re-election… and there will be no political will on the left among establishment to impeach him if he’s just won re-election. It will have been litigated by the American voters.
I haven’t looked at the exact seats in a few months, but the minimal acceptable outcome to me to not be very disappointed the next day is probably win White House, House, get to 49 in the Senate. I’d celebrate the presidential win on election night, but be realistically disappointed at nothing happening for two years and maybe the whole term. But 49 would leave them within striking range in 2022 at least.
They basically need to flip four Senate seats, since they’re almost certainly losing Alabama (unless Roy Moore wins the nomination again, then Jones has at least a 45% shot at winning).
They should hold New Hampshire, but it’s not a lock. They should flip Colorado, but Gardner is about as moderate of a Republican as you’ll get so we’re really relying on Colorado moderates to understand that a vote for Gardner is a vote for Leader Mitch McConnell. That’s gotta be the campaign message there.
They’ll have a good shot at Arizona, Maine, Iowa, North Carolina and a non-zero chance at Texas, Georgia and Kansas if the elections are free and fair - which they certainly won’t be in Georgia, Kansas, Texas or Arizona. Likely won’t be in Iowa or North Carolina, either. So they’ve got to overcome that and win three of those if they hold NH and flip CO. And while the elections in Maine will be fair, Collins is a strong incumbent and a talented politician with huge name recognition and incumbency advantages. She’ll have a very motivated left up there, so that’s what we have to hope gets it done. I think we flip Maine, and I think we have maybe a 60% chance at Arizona and Iowa, so about a 36% chance of getting both (although I suppose higher because they are correlated).
If they get Bullock to run, they can win Montana. You could argue right now that Kentucky is gettable, but obviously the odds are very low (like right now I’d be thrilled to run a sim at 20% equity and take our chances).
Sadly, yes. I’ll still celebrate election night, though. So hopefully that means two celebrations. I may go to the inauguration just so if he doesn’t leave office voluntarily, I’m there to start the immediate protest.
There should like six rounds of primary votes, and they should randomly rotate between states and be geographically balanced. Split the country into five or six regions, randomly pick one from each group to go in each round. It’s crazy that Iowa and New Hampshire get so much power, but it would also be bad to do everything at once.
They won’t be able to even bring up impeachment if he wins related to anything he did before. It would have to be brand new stuff that’s not like the stuff he did before, which is exactly what he’ll be doing times 10 if he gets elected. At that point, it really would be up to the American people to force the Congress, and not like now where they would be abdicating their duty by doing nothing.
Bullock is a hater if he doesn’t run for Senate in Montana. He’s a lock to win that seat vs. that guy. Based on GOP idiocy, the Senate is most definitely in play today. If they had been remotely competent back when they had everything they would probably be near 60 in the Senate right now. Instead they all locked their fates to one of the biggest morons in the history of the world. I’ve said it before, Mitch isn’t a good player, he’s a good bluffer. They’re getting caught now.
I’m personally rooting for Mitch to just not run. There is no one in that Senate who can eff with the parliamentary rules like him, and he needs to be gone because of that. His ability to twist the rules combined with no conscience and a complete lack of shame is unmatched in the Senate. It’s truly incredible he’s a doctor. Like that doctor in Luther this season.
This is not what I think should happen, but if the Dems just ran primaries in states where the previous election were within a few points it would put them in a much better position to win the general.
The Senate map isn’t bad in 2020. Dems are defending at most 2 seats that are not gimmies and Republicans are defending 5. A wave election similar is 18 probably puts us at 50/50 with the VP breaking for Dems.
Iowa is pushing blue
NC has an unpopular senator
AZ is purple and went blue in 2018
Colorado is leaning blue
Maine is purple tho Collins is still popular
That isn’t even counting Texas, SC, and Kentucky, where serious funding and pushes are being made (although all are likely to fail)
The same thing will happen that happened in 2016. Russia will spam social media in the last couple weeks leading up to the election, gaslighting dummies, and we’ll be posting here again wondering why his favorability is going up despite him doing or saying nothing different