https://mobile.twitter.com/People4Bernie/status/1159165087141126145
I donāt mind him having them on, but challenge their shitty ideas if you donāt agree with them, otherwise itās an endorsement
He looks like a Who
LOL āa lockā. Come on dude.
Statements like this are GREATLY underestimating the polarization in this country right now.
Itās a presidential election year. There are very few people who are going to be voting different parties for president and senator.
As an example, there were 34 senate seats up in 2016. In all 34 cases, the party of the winner of the senate seat and party of the electoral votes for president were the same.
Unless you actually think that states like Kentucky, Montana and South Carolina are actually in play in the presidential election, dreams of actually capturing senate seats there are laughably minute.
Heās the current two term Governor of the state. Do you somehow think heād be an unpopular choice against a guy whoās an avowed Trump supporter who thinks he doesnāt work for the people of Montana? He had more votes than the guy in his 2016 election than the guy in the Senate got in 2014.
Itās as lock as you can get in an election for a state like that. Which is why it would be perplexing if he doesnāt run.
He had more votes in 2016 than the other guy did in 2014 because it was a presidential year and not a midterm year. Itās a fair point that he won two governor races, but people are a lot more likely to split ballots for state office than they are for federal office. And being an avowed Trump supporter is a good thing in Montana, remember?
I tend to agree that itās pretty unlikely weāll pick up any seats in deep red presidential states, and calling it a lock is laughable.
According to Morning Consult, Steve Daines net approval is +21 and Trump won the state by 20 points.
Heās a popular governor, but that doesnāt translate to the senate. I can tell you that Phil Scott and Charlie Baker (two popular Republican governors in Democratic states) would get absolutely trounced if they ran for senate right now.
Itās possible that Bullock wins that seat, but itās a massive reach. Using the term ālockā or anything close to that is absurd.
I guarantee you he thinks heād win the Senate seat if he ran based on what he said in the debate. He thinks he can win president. Iād love to be proven wrong or right on this, but until he actually drops out and runs for the seat itās moot.
The mayor of Helena is running for that seat, saying Daines is very outside what Montana voters want. Helena, while the capital, is the 6th largest city in Montana so he might not have much of a chance.
Eye, not sure why youād compare Republicans in Democratic states vs. Democrats in Republican states. There probably arenāt many Democrats who have a chance to be Governor or Senator in Montana, but heās one of them. Iām super confused why you would think being a current two term Governor doesnāt translate to Senator. Itās a statewide race. He won two of those, the second much more convincingly than the first. Can you link me to your poll?
Hereās some data from 2014:
Republicans won a net gain of nine Senate seats, the largest Senate gain for either party since the 1980 elections. In the House, Republicans won a net gain of thirteen seats, giving them their largest majority since the onset of the Great Depression.
Iād probably be willing to put 10 bux on Bullock if he runs for Senate, and I donāt do any of that kind of betting. Lockās too strong, sure, but I would put money on it if it were a possibility.
Iām lazy, what does that predict the 2020 senate elections look like?
These are the same seats that pushed the Dems to 59/60 in 2008. If the Dem nominee wins comfortably(which might be a pipe dream i guess) I think more senate seats are in play than you would expect.
thoughts?
Yes, this is why he has a chance.
You act like thatās a bad thing in Montana. Trump won it by 21 points.
What were you expecting him to say? āVote for me guys, but I think Iām going to lose. Bullock for runner up, 2020!ā
One is an executive who runs the state and is mostly responsible for administering statewide programs, the other is representing the state at the federal level and voting on issues like federal taxes, healthcare, and guns.
At even money?
Sure, if he runs and makes it out of the Democratic Primary for Senator, Iād be willing to even money the bet at $10.
OK, Iād be down for that bet - we can book it when that happens. Iāll be hoping to lose, obviously.
1 Like
Obviously Bullock isnāt a lock. But he is also obviously the best chance Democrats have to win the Montana senate seat. Also he obviously has no chance to be President. Yes I realize I used obviously a lot thereā¦but yeahā¦
Everything that you said was obviously true was, in fact, obviously true.
A quick look if the same pattern holds (which I think it largely will):
Democratic seats
Alabama is an almost certain loss, even if Roy Moore is the nominee.
Michigan went to Trump last time, but seems likely to go back to the Democratic column.
The rest should be safe, but New Hampshire, New Mexico, Virginia, Minnesota could provide a sweat.
Republican seats
Colorado is probably a loss, though not as certain as Alabama.
Maine should be good for a flip, though if there is one place where the president and senate would be split, it would be here.
After that, it gets iffy real fast. North Carolina and Iowa went to Obama in 2008 and are probably trending purple, as is Arizona. These are almost certainly the next three targets on the list.
After that youāre getting into big time reaches with Georgia and Texas, and if you really want to shoot for the moon - Alaska, South Carolina, Montana and Mississippi.
But once you get past Maine on that list, all of them will be brutally tough even if the elections were 100% fair, which they wonāt be in most of those states.
If I had to guess right now, Democrats lose Alabama but keep the rest. They pick up Colorado and Maine. This would make it 52-48.
As for the rest, itās going to heavily depend on two factors:
1 - Whether or not a recession happens in the next 12 months.
2 - Whether or not the Democrats nominate someone for president who will bring people out to vote in these downballot races.
Why does anyone like Pete? He is not an ally.
1 Like