Beto wins this battle of the bands.
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1163790352555417600?s=19
Oof thatās a strong disagree from me
Williamson is such a wild card that I donāt really know where her support would be coming from and who it would hurt. On first blush, I donāt see her appealing to the stereotypical Trump voter though. Seems more like the Susan Sarrandony, lefty, anti-Vaxxers would dig her vibe.
Tulsa could definitely peel off Dem voters. Just imagine a scenario where Biden is the nominee and Tulsi is running around calling him a warmonger, going on rants about neoliberalism and old school politics. She could absolutely hit him from the left. She could even stir up some subtle problems for Warren if she wants to by trolling her on indigenous issues by discussing going to Standing Rock, Tulsiās own Samoan heritage, or dealing with the concerns of Native Hawaiians. Weāve already seen her go after Kamala for being a prosecutor, specifically hypocracy wrt weed. All of these lines would seems to suppress the left wing of likely democratic party voters way more than Trump folks.
I think thatās all correct, but I think turnout will be high and motivated and if someone like Tulsi tried to mess with the election sheāll be tarred and feathered.
The strength of the nominee matters a lot here. I tend to view third party candidates pulling voters as a problem that tends to happen to weaker nominees who the base of the party doesnāt love. Iām a lot more worried about Nader/Stein problems with Gore/Clinton than I am for Obama/Warren. Strong nominees simply do not care about third party candidates because they win with room to spare.
Right now Trump is drawing dead against at least half of the Democratic field. A pretty good spot to be. Letās not waste too much time worrying about Gabbard/Williamson.
Iāll start worrying about a third party problem when Biden wins Super Tuesday conclusively and not before. Right now itās looking increasingly unlikely he makes it to Iowa. Heās been taking really serious body blows pretty much since he decided to run (Like an idiot. He should have listened to Obama and not run.)
Name one person youāve met in the wild who supports Tulsi
Iāve seen some on FBā¦ but every single one was a Trump supporter. Trump supporters looking to break Democrat seem to mostly break for Yang or Tulsi from what Iāve seen.
Iāve seen bros saying hot Tulsi is. Iād assume thereās some crowd that would elect her on looks alone.
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I lived in Hawaii for three years, so I have a lot of familiarity with Tulsi as well as people who have voted for her in multiple elections, so my takes on her are probably a little different than the national experience.
Nationally, I know a lot of people who have expressed affection for particular positions (mostly anti-war stuff, and her support for Bernie in the last election), but I donāt think sheās their top choice in the primary. If she ran third party in a general, my guess is that they would spend several months whining about neoliberals on FB, but ultimately support the dem nominee.
The wingnut conspiratard Trump guys are a huge part of the Gabbard fan club afaict.
Iām not really sure what I preferā¦ One night with 10 candidates on the stage or two nights with six and five. I think six and five may be better - more airtime for the good candidates.
Then again, I donāt really want Steyer to get any traction.
Tulsiās a fraud, though, do people in Hawaii think sheās not? Sheās the only Representative running for President whoās not on the record in support of starting an official impeachment inquiry, said the Mueller report stated āno collusionā, and will probably be a bigger Putin ally than Trump. An isolationist with tons of views on foreign policy isnāt really an isolationist, so itās another place where sheās a fraud.
I canāt believe anyone from the left takes her seriously. Her dad switched from GOP to Democrat because he couldnāt win in Hawaii otherwise. She has a million pounds of toxicity in her background, and isnāt that far removed from it. She absolutely cannot be trusted.
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Someone needs to come out to this song:
One night would be better. Two nights wouldnāt give more airtime to the top tier candidates, it would give more time for the shitty candidates to pick fights with the frontrunners, with encouragement from the moderators of course.
Would much rather have 2 nights of 5 each than another giant clusterfuck where the hosts get to pick who talks again.
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This. I also think we should put all of the top polling candidates on night 1 and the rest on night 2. Like top 6 night 1 and the rest on night 2.
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Whoās running the third debate?
ABC News, along with Univision, to host third debate, to be held during the second week of September
https://democrats.org/news/third-debate/
Itās on September 12th, btw.
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Sheās received around 80% of the vote in the general election, and hasnāt had a serious primary challenge since her first campaign for Congress which was a big multi candidate affair, so, yeah, Iād say sheās taken pretty seriously. Now, obviously, just being a Dem in Hawaii means the general should be a cake walk, but she has done a good job of protecting her left flank with the anti war stuff (plays well to general doveishnes on the left and specifically to the tensions between the local population and the military industrial complex), good on the environment (a huge issue for progressive organizing in Hawaii) and Native Hawaiian cultural values type issues. As far as impeachment, most voters arenāt treating that as a voting issue. And as far as gay marriage, Iām still pissed off about it, but most folks in Hawaii (even Dems) had to āevolveā a lot on that issue, so they are willing to believe that she did too.
The bottom line is that Hawaii has some idiosyncratic politics and her positions work reasonably well there
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