Who will run in 2020?

This is probably in Chuck Todd’s scrapbook of amazing debate questions

One question though, what is a revocable death penalty?

Now do Mondale and then the other guy who rode in a tank while his wife was being murdered or something

Mondale ran a liberal campaign, supporting a nuclear freeze and the Equal Rights Amendment (ERA). He spoke against Reagan’s economic policies and in support of reducing federal budget deficits. However, he was running against a popular incumbent and his campaign was widely considered ineffective. Also, he was perceived as supporting the poor at the expense of the middle class. Southern whites and northern blue-collar workers who usually voted Democratic switched their support to Reagan because they credited him with the economic boom and saw him as strong on national security issues .

Kind of - although I doubt whoever the Dem nominee is will be talking about reducing the deficit - more likely going to massively increase it with whatever health plan they run on.

Reagan was a POPULAR incumbent, as they note in the quote. Trump won’t be. How much of an economic boom Trump is going to have to run on seems…questionable. And to a degree, the middle class has become poor. Dunno how that will play.

I was in my third year of med school when Dukakis (the tank guy) ran against Bush. I was spending 100 or so hours a week in the hospital - they could have elected John Gacy and I wouldn’t have noticed.

MM MD

Probably means you can’t commute the sentence to life.

Got it, makes sense

Biden imploding is a lock. It is just a matter of if it happens before or after the Dem primary is decided.

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The Dukakis question is wild, and even crazier when compared to the “gotcha” question that Shaw gave to Bush. Paraphrasing, but it was basically, “if you were to die in office is Dan Quayle ready to be President.” That should be a layup for anybody on a debate stage, but Shaw apparently thought it was the good stuff…

He’s not going to implode, he’s just going to get whittled away until he barely scrapes through the primary and then limps into the general election with ~zero enthusiasm and we get to see if the Dems fuck up a layup once again.

This is what I hope will happen.

This is what will actually happen.

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The whittling away is a plausible and also nightmare scenerio. If Trump could handpick an opponent out of the top 10 no doubt it would be Biden.

I haven’t looked at the state by state polling but I fear that even if Biden performs terribly in IA/NH and even the NV caucuses, he then turns around crushes SC and the rest of the 60/40 Trump red states (AL, AR, OK, TN) on March 3 to make it a race anyway.

I don’t doubt that there is a perception of baggage wrt to the socialism tag, but is this really just a boogeyman? Are there people out there that would vote Biden over Trump, but if faced with Bernie versus Trump say, “oh no, he’s a filthy socialist”? Maybe there are, but as others have questioned, no matter who the candidate is, the hard right will scream socialism anyway, so are the Dems just shooting themselves in the foot, by compromising to someone less exciting with no true return on that sacrifice? I guess this is how the Dems negotiate in Congress all the time though.

My opinion of voters is pretty low, but like at least give them credit for knowing the difference between a moderate Democrat the Republicans call socialist, and a guy who runs the furthest left campaign and calls himself a socialist.

Do those voters not want the socialist, or do they just vote for the centrist because they think others don’t want the socialist?

“He’s not going to implode, he’s just going to get whittled away until he barely scrapes through the primary and then limps into the general election with ~zero enthusiasm and we get to see if the Dems fuck up a layup once again.”

To be clear, I don’t think he’s going to have a breakdown on TV and start talking about the Illuminati controlling our body fluids - like Muskie, I think he’ll just leak away support - He’s “the front-runner” - if he starts finishing second/third people are going to look for another alternative pretty quickly. Warren at present seems the mostly likely of the group to benefit from a Biden slump.

“My opinion of voters is pretty low, but like at least give them credit for knowing the difference between a moderate Democrat the Republicans call socialist, and a guy who runs the furthest left campaign and calls himself a socialist.”

I agree with this take.

MM MD

I dunno. Socialism polls somewhat badly. Anecdotally, I have family members who have voted for Dems and Republicans with moderate politics. They have told me that they favor Biden and their reasons did not include electability. Idk how they feel about Bernie, but they don’t like AOC or leftist politics. Personally, I don’t like socialism myself, but I would more enthusiastically vote for Bernie than Biden just because Biden sucks so bad.

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Hickenlooper is out

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Liking for use of image in spoiler, nice effect.

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What candidates benefit most from a potential upcoming recession? I’m thinking Bernie (system is broke we need to change it!) and Biden (Trump broke the economy, only I can beat him)?

Yang. “I just lost my job and 20% of the value of my portfolio. How soon can he start writing those UBI checks?”