He’s drawing dead if he engages Warren in a debate. He literally can’t come out ahead. She’ll be 100x as prepared as him. That’s just who she is. It’s not an accident that she landed a savage haymaker on that healthcare CEO last time. And knowing enough about that guy to clobber him is a sign of great preparation. I still don’t even know his name.
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I think you’re looking at this through the wrong lens. California moving up in primary order seems like a big deal to me (Super Tuesday March 3 after South Carolina).
Here are the changes I can see:
California moves up to March 3
Georgia moves back to March 24
North Carolina moves up to March 3
Unless something major changes, Harris will probably win California, which should help her longevity a lot.
The amount of delegates that moved up earlier is 526 (CA 416, NC 110). The loss of Georgia (105) makes that a net of 421 additional delegates that moved up early. By basis of comparison South Carolina has 54 delegates. I think the outcomes in some of these earliest primaries/caucuses matter less than in the past.
Harris is very weak nationally atm and barely leading and as low as 4th in the CA polls I’ve looked at. In fact, Warren & Bernie should each be going all in CA, that would a yuge prize, Biden has had a lead in one or two polls in CA but tiny.
She’s polling behind Biden according to Real Clear Politics and 538 and if anything it looks like her numbers dropped after the debates so I don’t think she’s going to win CA unless she suddenly…dammit ponied.
I have a lot of faith that CA will not vote for Biden. I’m not saying no one can pick her off, but Biden? Nah. That would be an utter waste of CA’s new found primary power, and something more akin to what would have been done in the past when CA primary votes didn’t matter. CA has a real chance to create a front runner, which is why it would be a huge mistake for the voters to pick Biden. They basically seal the nomination for him if he wins. I just can’t see CA doing that right now.
Can you link me to CA polls?
It’s not many but here
Alternately those blue words in my post are links to the polls I was talking about…
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Sorry missed that you had those in it.
Slow pony overtakes fast pony
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California is gonna be Warren/Biden then Harris/Bernie then Pete. No way Harris wins CA.
Source: vibes from knowing the state.
seemed like the undercover republicans at the iowa state fair were mostly behind harris
Don’t you live in Orange County? ;)
Hillary Clinton got 2.713 million votes in 2016’s primary.
Bernie Sanders got 2.326 million votes in 2016’s primary.
Kamala Harris got 2.051 million votes in her Senate primary.
Hillary got 8.753 million votes in the Pres election.
Harris got 7.542 million votes in the Senate election.
Loretta Sanchez got 4.701 million votes against Harris in the Senate election.
Harris slightly outperformed Hillary via pct. Harris is popular in the state overall (and has never lost an election, not including this one where she is not the front runner), but there are plenty of votes that can be taken away from her. I still think she’s the favorite, but I have no idea by how much.
Just saw this poll:
Economist/YouGov Poll 8-10/8-13
Biden’s shrinking back with only a 3 point lead now. Sanders went up 3, and so did Beto to 5. Harris and Biden each lost 3, I’ll leave it to you guess who stole from whom.
I’ve posted about this before, but one of the few benefits of being old is that you’ve probably seen whatever movie is playing before - and this Dem primary looks a lot like 1972 - Muskie was Biden 1.0 - the established democrat who had all sorts of dem high rollers telling each other a) he was obviously the right guy and b) he HAD to get the nomination because he was the only one who could beat Nixon.
And his campaign promptly shit the bed once the primaries started because pretty much no one was FOR him, if that makes sense. He was a dead man walking, and McGovern ran him over. This time around, though - I think Warren or Pete (or Beto, I suppose) would be MUCH better candidates than McGovern. Way too big a chance for me to run Bernie, although I like a fair amount of what he’s selling. We can’t stand another 4 years of Trump - and I’ve seen that movie before, too…
(And a quick plug for “Fear and Loathing on the Campaign Trial” by Hunter Thompson - about the 1972 election, and maybe the best book on politics I’ve ever read.
MM MD
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What do you think will happen based on that comparison?
Now do Mondale and then the other guy who rode in a tank while his wife was being murdered or something
Bolded sounds familiar
+1 to the book recommendation
Kitty Dukakis is alive tho
I think Biden implodes, just like Muskie did - no one is really FOR Biden, I think. I would guess that unlike in 1972, the next “normal” candidate overtakes him, probably Warren. McGovern initially didn’t have nearly the baggage that Sanders has (primarily the socialism label stapled to his forehead) which helped him edge out Humphrey. Of course in the general election he repeatedly shot himself in both feet, reloaded and shot again. Given that Nixon was a MUCH sharper politician than the Donald (although the thought of Nixon on Twitter has a certain charm) I think Warren wins, probably fairly easily. But I’m wrong all the time, too.
MM MD
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