I don’t know if an Iowa loss is a kill shot for Biden. He will still have South Carolina to look forward to.
If the poll this morning becomes a trend, then maybe things are finally moving against Biden, albeit slowly. But I’m going to need to see more than one poll
Warren is running a great campaign that is thinking long term. I’m hoping it works as well as it has so far the rest of the primary. In particular I really like her leaving out the usual suspects from the DNC establishment when staffing her campaign. The fact that the HRC people were the ‘best people’ available from the establishment is more than enough reason to employ exactly zero of them if you’re running for president in 2020.
Because this strategy worked so well in 2016.
Biden’s doing a great job convincing old people he’ll be a third Obama term.
There is a reason Biden is trading at 27c on predictit while leading every poll. It’s because its August and he isn’t going to win. JEB was trading above 10c at this point if I remember right and he didn’t even make it to super Tuesday.
I strongly agree with predictit here. Particularly since there are actually strong candidates in this field running Obama quality campaigns. Warren in particular is showing us what a great POTUS she’ll be by running an exceptional race.
The person was asking what would it take to convince you centrism isn’t dead after Hillary lost a close election. The answer is something besides historic midterm election victories by centrists.
Great work Sherlock. Yes, dems were defending a historic number of seats. Kind of a pre-req to successfully defending a historic number of seats. But not only did these centrists go largely unchallenged in the primary(which I would not expect if a progressive revolution was forthcoming and centrism was o it’s way out) they also won in enough crucial swing states to take back the WH.
Lol. Yes, Progressive Jason Kander. The guy who got his start running a superpac with help from Terry McAuliffe and co-chaired Hillary’s presidential campaign. Centrist dems must be shaking in their boots about being replaced by these radicals!!!
I mean I don’t know what to tell you. Baldwin’s opponent was trying to paint her as far left. She ran to Bill Clinton, leader of the third way dems for help. You really don’t think people would be attacking her for not being a #true_progressive like they are Warren if Baldwin was running for 2020?
If you want to turn it around and say there really isn’t a sharp divide between centrists and progressives, and people like Baldwin, Brown, Warren etc can rightfully be called both, I agree. But that only makes my case.
Funny enough we basically have a perfect model in recent times for a party totally killing off an ideology/strategy with how Trumpism replaced neoconservatism. You had 4 out of the 5 living former republican presidential nominees refusing to vote for Trump. Nothing like that is remotely going on with the democrats and the Clinton/Obama mold centrists are very much alive and crucial for 2020 and probably beyond.
These people have no clue how primaries/caucuses should work. Vote for the candidate you want in those, dam what other people want. If other people want something else you’ll get it. Vote for the person you didn’t vote for in the general. These people are nuts. I don’t get why this is so hard.
Biden’s had a persistent lead that doesn’t change no matter how badly he performs on-stage. The Predictit value is crazy low.
Winning Iowa would help Warren or Pete or Harris much more than Biden, because that’s a signal to voters in SC and Nevada that, “hey, maybe they CAN win”. So they feel better voting for the person they really like because now that person has a real shot (in their minds). I think right now a lot of the people who are “for” Biden actually really like other candidates but sort of feel pressured into Biden because they think he’s the only one who can win.
If Biden gets crushed in IA, that would be a pretty bad few days news coverage, but if he loses narrowly, I don’t think it matters much. If Biden wins SC by a lot and current trends hold then he cruises.
It’s worth noting that the Dem establishment is absolutely not behind Biden. They wanted Harris. Then they wanted Booker. They’ll reluctantly fall back to Warren if they have to. They’ll take Biden only if they absolutely have to. He would be burying the field if they really wanted him.
This might not make sense because I’m slightly inebriated, but what is the percent chance you would accept of your preferred candidate beating Trump vs a guaranty that Biden would beat Trump. For example, God says to you “I can either guarantee Joe Biden will beat Trump, or you can have an 80% chance that Elizabeth Warren will beat Trump.”
Who’s your candidate and what’s the lowest percent chance you accept for that candidate before taking 100% Biden?
This is obv given that they’re the Dem nominee
I 100 percent take Biden if he’s the nominee. That’s it.
Your hypothetical doesn’t track reality because Biden really running vs Trump actually has one of the highest chances of losing… but I would take Biden 100% of the time if I thought he had a 100% chance of winning, could guarantee the Senate, and could guarantee the removal of the filibuster.
I think Biden wins but the GOP keeps the Senate is pretty close to a push with Trump wins though. A return to normalcy could actually be a huge disaster given the long term trends we’re facing. We’re very much on the clock on quite a few things.
Not the intent. I want to see how big the Biden dislike is.
Fair enough. I think most of us dislike him because we see a candidate that cannot weaponize a sizable number of Trumps biggest flaws. It’s hard to attack him for his treatment of women or his corruption when there’s video footage of the Anita Hill hearing, you getting handsy with tons of women, and you’ve gotten extremely rich off of status quo politics for decades.
Oh and he says dumb shit only slightly less than Trump… which stops you from keeping the focus on the sheer stupidity of the words coming out of Trumps mouth.
Biden could conceivably come in third in Iowa and fourth in New Hampshire. Regardless of margin, if he comes in worse than second in either he’s in trouble in terms of the narrative.
If he drops below 20% in Iowa, which he’d almost have to to come in second, he’s only a few points ahead of whoever is in third… That one could go something like: Warren 25%, Harris 17%, Biden 16%. The current polling averages on RCP are Biden 25, Warren 16, Harris 14.
If Warren/Bernie Bernie/Warren go 1-2 in IA and NH, the narrative will be pretty bad for Biden. But my sense is he still makes a strong stand in SC and remains the favorite (again if current trends hold). Out of the three, Warren has to win IA the most imo, and if she loses both IA and NH, she’s going to have problems. Bernie could lose IA and win NH and still be in the game, but if he loses both he’s going to have problems too and I don’t know if he’s more likely to drop out earlier this time than last.
Let’s see how Warren does against Biden in the next debate and if the polls change