I’m sorry to say this, but I’m seriously worried about both Warren and Bernie now after watching Boris win in the UK. I also don’t like establishment Dems for this job because they aren’t remotely appealing to the voters.
Honestly this is a really bad night for me and I’ve been drinking. Carry on. I just have a strong suspicion our bubble isn’t capturing reality well here.
interesting news out of VA, where the deadline to submit signatures to be on the ballot was today. No Castro, and pretty much everyone but Bernie and Pete filed this week, if not today. Pete and Bernie were done weeks ago.
numbers (sorry they aren’t in order):
And commentary thread:
https://twitter.com/VApoliticalmeme/status/1205316234570543105?s=20
Bernie/Warren have to target different states than Pete/Biden (Iowa probably not in play for former, but I’d at least try for the latter just b/c that’s how bad he fucked it up with the farming community) but this is a bit what I’ve been getting at with Warren scaring me in a gen election vs Trump heads up.
Bernie has a better path than Warren does imo. Biden still the best one but the election isn’t tomorrow.
The biggest problem for Bernie/Warren is pennsylvania. Dems lose that and they’re toast and boy do I not want to have to rely on Warren beating Trump there. (and I’d give up wisconsin entirely for arizona if she won the nom, which she probably will not)
there’s been polls all over the place, some of the weaker pollsters have Trump destroying democrats, but the better ones have Dems okay but I’d still say they’re slight dogs (electoral college is a bitch) vs Trump based on them right now. It’s hard to say without super digging into who responded to these polls.
I wish California would stop polling general election heads up, it’s clogging the 538 feed and we fucking know who’s gonna win. (though I’m surprised emerson is rated A- there, it’s known for some fucking weird shit)
Texas is so damn tantalizing to go for it because that would KO these R’s for president for quite some time, but it seems it’s gonna be just short for dems to get there man, why did beto have to actually say something so stupid, sigh.
The differences are significant enough to matter imo. Boris is a better and more popular politician than Trump. Bernie is a better politician than Corbyn. No Brexit to divide the party. Warren isn’t left enough to matter more than any other establishment candidate imo.
I think a lot of these decisions are rooted in weird campaign finance rules. But also as others have said, staying in gets them national attention, plus anyone running for president has kind of a hyper-competitive personality that’s going to keep them in it if they have even the faintest hint at winning.
Are you going to close up shop and hand back donations or are you just gonna say fuck it, let’s set up our campaign HQ in Iowa and hope for some crazy miracle?
Polls on the eve of the 2016 election had Clinton about 13 points underwater in favorability. Corbyn was about FORTY POINTS underwater in December polling. It’s madness to think you can go to the polls with a leader that unpopular and win. Maybe there were other factors, but they’re not required to explain the result.
doesn’t change the general point and the media will gladly assist R’s in hammering whoever wins HARD over and over and over before the general election. Every D will have higher unfavorable ratings then vs now. Trump will have gone nowhere there as his voters don’t care whatsoever.
edit–that all said, I believe UK is older/whiter/I think more rural overall than US is, so while I did expect Boris to win–I guess I probably should’ve realized something ridic like this was gonna happen.
UK results seem like another piece of evidence that we’ll just really have to wait another 20-30 years for things to start getting better. I’d say that picking a different country to live in might be a smart move, but I don’t think anywhere would be insulated from the worlds biggest economies all intentionally torpedoing themselves
Fox news calling out CNN and CBS lmao
A Comedian told a social democrat in German TV yesterday that he got it wrong if he thinks his voters care much about the environment. If only male workers would have voted in recent elections the far right would have won absolut majority in these parliaments. He said: They dont care about the environment they want to drive their cars without regret, they want to keep their jobs and they are afraid of immigration. The further the party moves left the bigger the gains for far right.
When you look at recent events around the globe its similar in a lot of spots. I start to think we will have another big war again or civil wars before we might be able to change things on a bigger scale. Right now I have the feeling that the voter potential for voting green is capped at a certain number and will only get bigger if the olds die off or we are closer to extinction level events.
AOC’s “green new deal” sounds good but I imagine a lot of people in low skilled jobs will ask what do I get out of it. I probably wont get one of these new jobs.
Maybe if the UK goes really down the drain their might be a waking up call or it will everything too late in a couple of years because the rich realize the danger they are in and start making preparatons and we end up in these dystopian states that you see in films from time to time.
I agree with this to some extent. The problem is mostly with olds. The younger population will soon take over and they boomers don’t have to die off in order to do that
I’m sure there are younger people who also are afraid of losing their low skilled jobs. They should be as everything becomes more automated. It’s funny that the people who need a socialist democrat society the most, are so inclined to vote right wing. As if the billionaire elite are going to stop automation in favor of their jobs. They should be leading the charge for the Green New Deal as that will not only save the world from being an inhospitable place as they age, it will create jobs for themselves and their children
So yes, we’ll have to save some of them from themselves because they’re too stupid to know what’s in their best interest. But we always need to keep in mind that this is no longer a left v right thing. It’s the establishment v the anti establishment
I dunno the election results look like Boris party had the minority of votes, but the left was divided into 4 separate parties which fucked them. It kinda seems like it would be if the left fractured into different parties . Like if the Justice dems split into a different party and plus the green party ran again and got 4% of the vote. In that scenario Republicans would completely stomp too.
I don’t follow UK politics but it seems kind of crazy. Like the left leaning parties are split into 4 parties that all get significant amount of votes, while the right it completely unified.
I might be misunderstanding the situation but how would you ever win an election like that?
But yeah situation seems entirely different than the US election. Although the electoral college does kind of fuck us and I expect the Republicans/russia to go hard at trying to push a left wing third party candidate so maybe not.
Another note is dems crushed the mid terms.
I mean neither are centrist dems, from my understanding centrist dems are further right than lib dems. Luckily we’re mostly unified on fuck Trump. Though Bernie getting the nomination and the MSM media going full red scare will be something we’d have to fade and could definitely end up with a ton of centrists just staying home.
Overall though I’m less worried about how the UK results reflect on the elections here after learning that.
And yeah the centrist/left parties in the UK clearly need to form a coalition or they’re fucked for the foreseeable future. I used to think we needed multiple parties here but seeing it in practice its pretty obvious the same thing would happen here. The right is just way better at being unified.
So the libs in the UK got doused in gasoline and set on fire by their voters in this week’s election… liberalism really seems to be on downswing…
We can all hope!
Yea the libdems getting 11% of the vote and only having it translate to 11 seats, basically guaranteeing brexit, is absurd levels of “congratulations you played yourself.”
It’s also exactly what’s going to happen in the us when Bernie gets the nomination and the establishment dems back a third party centrist.
We have been waiting for the olds to die off for generations in this country, at least since the 60s. I don’t think that is the solution and most of us aren’t young enough for that to be a solution for us even if it was. I’m nearing 40 and the thought of living the rest of my life in late stage capitalism while the world literally burns is pretty terrifying.
Trump is a unique chance to have progressivism actually take hold though. Because our side should turn out this next election. Nominating Biden or Pete would be a huge mistake for our future and guarantee the future I describe above. It may be inevitable anyways but Bernie (or maybe Warren) at least give us a fighting chance.
CNN goes balls to the wall on every single SJW hot take, for example they had ~5 front page stories on their website about the Peloton exercise bike commercial “The actress in the Pelotin commercial finally speaks!” and “Why can’t we stop talking about the Pelotin commercial?” … but when it comes to liberal economics it is always “Just how crazy is Elizabeth Warren’s healthcare plan?” or “Is Bernie actually a communist?” There is no way that they don’t poison the non-Biden democrat nomination.
You guys give way too much credit to CNN/traditional media.
Facebook is by far the bigger influencer at this point of fake news and weird takes. That is the real problem, even more so than Fox News IMO.
