I could be wrong, but I don’t think the candidates choose their own delegates in every state. I think a lot of them are just party establishment folks at the state level who automatically get to serve as delegates.
I think most states have a mixture of both, with the majority being chosen by vote/caucus per congressional district.
here’s a sampling from a few different states:
California
Texas
Indiana
edited to add: if I don’t have a job at the end of march, I plan to run for one of my district’s delegate spots, because I really want to go to the convention. It remains to be seen for whom I will be a delegate
I’d be willing to put money on Biden not winning a brokered convention. Anybody up for an even money bet?
Maybe hardcore Bernie Bros see the rest of the field as indistinguishable, so their second choice is based primarily on who they see as most likely to beat Trump. And maybe they see gender as a problem electorally.
Yeah I am pretty sure it is this
I will bet up to a hundo on Biden winning a brokered convention that he goes into with a leading plurality of delegates at even money.
I would bet on neither Bernie nor Warren winning a brokered convention. Biden is the most likely to win one, but maybe not better than 50%. Harris and Clinton have a shot at well.
I think worrying about this brokered convention kind of thing is counterproductive at this point. Odds are that favorites are going to shake out by December or January as the Caucuses get close. I think by the 4th or 5th primary Bernie and/or Warren will know if they’re fading or rising and find it hard to believe one won’t consolidate behind the other. I do NOT think either should drop out after New Hampshire.
I read an interesting article about the Iowa Caucus this weekend. There’s a clear feeling that Biden’s slipping among important Democratic people there. They say he’s not the same guy he used to be and that concerns them.
Harris apparently had an excellent showing this past weekend, and people are moving up on her. The same goes for Warren, if I remember correctly. We’ve pretty much settled on a true top 5 based on the polling (Biden, Warren, Sanders, Harris, Pete), and the only other person who seems capable of big movement in the early voting season is Booker. I think I read that he had a speech people loved in Iowa this past weekend.
The ones to keep an eye on in Iowa polling, in my opinion, are Harris, Warren, and Biden. It seems like Biden is going to do no better than second if the sentiment I’m reading now has any bearing on what happens in February. If he doesn’t win either of Iowa or NH, I think he’ll see the writing on the wall.
1 Like
With the right conditions, yeah, absolutely.
Booked for $100. Kinda hoping for a push tho.
Hottake: Bernie will get more support as Trump voters shift from him to TheBern. 
Warren needs for some second-tier candidate to go on a scorched earth kamikaze mission driving up Biden’s negatives and making him unelectable in exchange for a Cabinet job.
oo oo do me next paul
1 Like
I do think there may be some group of true independents that are basically single issue anti-establishment types that Bernie attracts, that might otherwise just stay at home. The type that were independent and only registered democratic last time just to vote for Bernie. It’s hard to poll a demographic like that because they probably don’t fall into the likely voter bucket.
Using some of that same logic, I have some small hope that Trump got a non-negligible number of these of low-information non-true-gop first-time voters in 2016 who are regretful and ashamed that their vote against the establishment turned out to be for an even worse monster.
dear god
Yeah, hoping for no action, but a loss hopefully wouldn’t be that bad.
Was it…Biden?
lol do they have a jar for trump kernels?
Hot take: Don’t think the Hollywood anti-hero trend of the last decade or so was good for the country. Made living vicariously through a piece of shit cool… setting the stage perfectly for Trump.
1 Like