Sherrod Brown came out against medicare for all and Tammy Baldwin ran campaign ads in 2012 featuring Bill Clinton. Denying that they are moderates is crazy. They have both been heavily backed and supported by the same democratic party machine that supported Obama and Hillary.
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Yeah, I think he is perfectly adequate at all the backroom horse trading and glad handing that you would expect from a guy thatās been a politician most of his life. I think his biggest weakness this cycle was he didnāt know how to run as a front runner. With his name recognition and organization from 2016 he could easily be in a separate tier with just Biden rather than clumped in with Warren, Harris etc.
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29% of Democrats say they wouldnāt vote for an atheist for President. 35% say they wonāt vote for someone over 70. I bet those two categories donāt overlap that much.
Can you post the poll? This is surprising to me. The only gripe Iāve heard in Bernie camps regarding Warren was her not supporting Bernie over HRC in 2016. That was super disappointing to many who thought she would stand up for the more progressive candidate. However, I assumed most Bernie 1s still have Liz overwhelmingly as a 2, unless itās people who just havenāt tuned in to 2020 yet.
In 2016 it went a lot like this. Bernie says we should have more debates before the primaries, or should have M4A, insert legitimate cause, etc. HRC supporters say Bernie is being divisive. So I imagine thereās a hesitancy among Bernie supporters when the divisive card is being played again in a similar manner.
If youāre trying to say that meme from whatever subreddit represents Bernie, Iād point to the recent debates where he and Liz appeared to be on the same side.
Does Bernie identify as atheist? Iāve never heard that
I recall reading something to that effect, yes.
Scroll down and youāll find it.
Thanks for source. Thatās nuts.
Sounds like heās a deist, then. Or else a closeted atheist.
The argument that so-and-so has to drop out after _____ to avoid handing the nomination to Biden doesnāt make sense. Primaries canāt be won by a plurality. If it ends 40% Biden, 35% Warren and 25% Sanders, it goes to a brokered convention that Biden almost certainly doesnāt win.
Anyway I found an article from 2016 where he denies being atheist but I wouldnāt be surprised if he is, privately. In any case while thereās some concern there, Iām not sure Iād take that kind of poll at face value. Iād imagine similar numbers of republicans would say that they wouldnāt vote for an adulterer, but here we are.
Wait, what? Who the hell does win if not Biden? It sure aināt Bernie, and Warren doesnāt have much of a case. Biden looks like a lock to me. The brokering is done by party insiders ffs.
Ok, letās game it outā¦
We get to the convention and Biden has a plurality but not a majority of pledged delegates. Sanders and Warren are in 2nd and 3rd, with a relatively equal number of pledged delegates. No other candidate is particularly close, but several do have delegates b/c most of the primaries award delegates proportionally (not winner take all). After the first vote is inconclusive:
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The Superdelegates (who canāt vote in the first round, but can vote in later rounds), predominately support whom? (My guess is mostly Biden, then Warren, then Sanders. Maybe Warren, Biden, Sanders. Sanders probably not getting the plurality here).
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The delegates who were pledged to the also rans are now freed up to vote for anyone on the second ballot. Who do they break for?
It seems to me that if Biden is close, he probably can pick up enough superdelegates + also rans to get over the top without pick off many Bernie or Warren supporters. Otoh, Bernie or Warren would need to drop out and strongly endorse the other one to get over the top.
This is very early, and would depend a lot on exact delegate breakdowns, but itās my best read atmā¦
Pollster: Whoās your first choice?
Respondent: Bernie
Pollster: Whoās your second choice?
Respondent: Uhhhhhā¦ (desperately tries to think of the name of someone else running in the primary)ā¦ Biden?
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You forgot to add:
Pollster: LOL
Iād expect enormous pressure for Warren delegates to never vote Biden, and Sanders delegates would probably commit seppuku first.
Anyway, at this point Iād say a brokered convention seems pretty likely. I donāt see Sanders dropping out ever, no matter what.
Veep is happening, HALLELUJAH!
They need to also ask for peopleās 3rd choice candidates for every permutation of 1st and 2nd choice. Then we can figure out who wins by using ICM.
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Biden would be a massive favorite in a brokered convention in which he had a plurality of the primary vote/primary delegates.
On the second ballot when everyone is freed up, even if Warren/Sanders dropped out and urged their delegates to unite and vote for the one still in, theyād be under immense pressure from the establishment to vote for Biden AND many of the delegates could just be establishment folks anyway who want to vote for Biden.
Meanwhile, assuming Biden was still polling better against Trump, heād have all the key arguments in his favorā¦ Electability and having the most votes in the primary.
Iād take it a step farther. If they go into the convention with Sanders having like 40% of the delegates and Biden having 35% and Warren 15%, Biden would still be a pretty big favorite.
Bernie isnāt getting the nomination in a brokered convention, heās a massive dog in that scenario. Warren maybe less so.
I think itās a mistake to project Biden as the one in that spot, though. I mean, itās August of 2019 and heās already got a laundry list of campaign trail faux paus and many of them involve race.
Wasnāt that basically how Lincoln got the nomination?