Most people don’t vote based on policy. You’ll see various people get 5-10 point bumps based on recent media buzz that may or may not last. Warren had it for a while and it fizzled. Pete had it a few weeks ago and it looks to be fizzling a bit. In the spring Beto, Kamala, and Pete all had periods where they were polling well and then they fell off.
Like 20% of people have actual reasons for why they vote for someone, and that’s probably being generous.
fizzling? He’s skyrocketed to double digits in the recent polls.
Warren/Pete are the same demographic of voters not Warren/Sanders. You might be confused because that’s not the same set of actual ideology but as stated; that is irrelevant to most voters.
It’s almost as if my earlier analysis…
… was entirely accurate, and given that they didn’t flock to Bernie supports the idea that…
… despite how much many in this forum want to believe that if only Warren would get out of the way he would pick up enough support to win.
Here’s another implication that’s going to be a tough pill for this forum to swallow: Warren is not dropping out after New Hampshire even if Bernie picks up more votes in those first two tiny states. Nor should she. The release of her support will not have a significant impact on Bernie’s ability to win. It would be monumentally stupid for Warren to drop out of the race as long as she’s trading at 5%+ on PredictIt.
I probably vastly underestimated Bloomberg’s chances–he’s buying vastly more ads than everyone else is combined or could’ve gotten him at a much better price if I had just waited. Dunno, his strategy has been done before and it went to shit for all of them but they didn’t have a billion to blow either…
Bloomberg is live. I could see Pete crashing shortly after taking enough frontrunner attacks, drop him and the 2-3% crowd after a couple months and you’ll see the race come down to Biden, Warren, and Bernie, plus Bloomberg still around cause he can afford to and he’s well known enough to poll at least at a few percent. Then the expected Biden implosion occurs, which Bloomberg will be a catalyst for because why support this old white “social liberal, fiscal conservative” guy who can’t make it through a debate without embarrassing himself when this other guy is just as boring and safe? Bloomberg becomes the front runner and crushes the field. Lots of events to parlay and I’m not saying it will happen, but I wouldn’t be surprised if it did. His current price on PredictIt is probably a bit high but not by much.
I thought about this but this question keeps popping in my head, who the **** black person is voting Bloomberg in the primary?
Bloomberg insisted Xi Jinping isn’t a dictator and already trashed the youth… That’s republican… oh wait that’s popular these days it seems.
I actually know someone who donated to Bullock.
It’s going to be a fun convention if Warren staying in prevents anyone from getting a majority of delegates.
same…but I’m super pissed he isn’t going to run for Senate. He’s popular in MT and could actually flip that seat.
The same black people who are currently supporting the guy who wouldn’t walk back his support of bussing or his crime bill. Centrist voters exist in large numbers across all demographics.
they’re still not voting Pete
wait, do I like Steyer now?
Was bored so I looked up who was in the lead at this point in time and by how much in the past primaries according to RCP. (Names I forgot where polling that high in spoilers because they made me laugh)
2020 D:Biden(+11) ,Warren,Sanders, Buttigeig
2016 R:Trump (+9.5), Carson, Rubio, Cruz.
2016 D:Clinton (+27), Sanders
2012 R: Gingrich (+6), Romney, Herman Cain, Ron Paul
2008 D:Clinton (+17.3), Obama
2008 R:Rudy Colludi (+12.9), Thompson, McCain, Romney, Huckabee
So the lesson to be learned is if your candidate is down, it’s not over yet. 17.3% seems to be the biggest blown lead. (That was heads up. Biggest blown in a crowded field seems to be 12.9%)
Wasn’t that narrative debunked? Either way if it’s true now or was ever true it’s impressively bad. I don’t know what’s causing it but based on my small sample of personal black friends who share their political views with me I’m pretty sure Bloomberg wouldn’t run into the same problem.
Gosh decision 2020 is getting really hard. Bloomberg??? Steyer???
Centrism!
Bloomberg/Steyer 2020 obv
Steyer has been a pleasant surprise in that his message in the debates has been climate is #1. That’s the major reason why I was sad Inslee couldn’t stick around longer. I obviously don’t think Steyer has a chance, but if he keeps making debates and represents a climate-change first viewpoint, he’s a net positive.
(If he actually gains any traction, and opines on anything other than climate then I reserve the right to take all of this back.)
Honestly though you can’t even compare Steyers wealth to bloomberg. Bloomberg could spend Steyers net worth and not even put a dent into his.