Who will run in 2020?

Make sure to give a shout out to unstuck politics.

Edit: This is a joke just to be clear.

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The least she can do is to sneak the word unstuck into her speech. :wink:

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Maybe tell folks you meet about Unstuck. Warn them that thereā€™s a boatload of Mayor Pete hate, tho.

More like them introducing their next Congressperson.

Iā€™d recommend mentioning Unstuck Politics twice (once can be random, twice connotes hidden meaning)!

Iā€™ve been driving a ton all week or Iā€™d be tempted to go down. I could hold an Unstuck Politics sign.

Warren can fuck off too. What a fraud. I might move Pete above her, ironically. If weā€™re going to have a sellout we might as well have the one who will fight hard on democracy reform so President Ocasio-Cortez can crush it in a fair system.

But I basically am voting for Bernie now almost 100% of the time. I guess if itā€™s clearly Biden vs Warren/Pete/other I vote for the alternative to Joe. Otherwise itā€™s Bernie or Bust.

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Man, giphy.com requires a sign in now? Fuck that.

AfterGeneSmashesLittlePaulieInTheHeadWithASnappleBottleVitoSays"IKnewThatWasComing".gif

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Whatā€™s astounding to me about Warrenā€™s move here is that it is purely an electoral move to attempt to improve her odds of becoming president, and yet it is likely to blow up in her face in that regard. She has two obvious weaknesses as a candidate. One is her liberal creds - she was originally a Republican, she did some questionable work, she moved to the left later in life than many would consider acceptable - ie after she had staked out her major political beliefsā€¦ and of course if she had political ambitions, she would more or less have to be a liberal given her location. The other is her honesty/authenticity given the Native American stuff, which doesnā€™t land in and of itself but if you start flip flopping and taking convenient positions, all of a sudden that one starts to stick.

Meanwhile, there is some valid criticism of her campaign decision making and strategy with regard to the Native American DNA testā€¦ But then after that she was just killing it and absolutely crushing, so we figured it was a one-off mistake. Now Iā€™m not so sure. Like, whatā€™s her end game with this play? To try to battle Biden and Buttigieg for the middle lane and hope that she can keep some of the liberal wing in her pocket? Silly and unnecessary.

She was in the driverā€™s seat in the liberal lane, she had passed Bernie, she had won a lot of people over and it seemed pretty clear that she had a lane there. She rose to the top of the polls, she was crushing it in Iowa and New Hampshire, and now this? Why? Because Buttigieg had a couple of good polls in Iowa? Fuck that, itā€™s short term noise for now. Thatā€™s no cause for a shakeup.

And she had already released the additional information about her original plan, and had not yet shared a debate stage with Pete again to battle over it again. And they just scrap it instead. Horrible strategically. So now Pete gets to still bash her over the head for her original stance on the grounds that she was being deceptive over not being able to pay for it and this shift proves she knew it, and then he gets to hit her with like, ā€œI thought your whole thing was, ā€˜I have a plan for that,ā€™ but from where Iā€™m sitting it looks an awful lot like you stole my plan.ā€

So the moderates will still be leery of her from her original position, and theyā€™ll view this as political calculus and a lack of authenticityā€¦ Meanwhile the liberals will be livid at her for moving to the center on healthcare. So sheā€™s going to lose liberal support and itā€™s very unclear whether sheā€™s going to gain any. I guess sheā€™s going to try to snatch up Biden voters before Pete can get to them?

It all just seems stupid, and worst of all itā€™s going to play into a comparison to Hillary thatā€™s going to register with a lot of peopleā€¦ A lot of people didnā€™t trust HRC on her political positions because she shifted around sometimes, sheā€™d try not to stake out a position and then wait to see where the voters were and take the position that polled the best or had the best focus groups. She was inauthentic. Now Warren falls into the same mold, and the degree of sexism in this country is going to make that comparison to HRC stick even more than it should.

Which brings me back to this: I can only assume Warrenā€™s true position, at least in this chapter of her life, is to believe in single payer healthcare being the best policy. But this reveals two things:

  1. She wants to be president more than she wants to fight for the working class and get the best policies in place.

  2. Sheā€™s getting shitty political advice.

And, whaddayaknow, sheā€™s met with HRC a few times, sheā€™s hired some of her staffersā€¦ She is getting establishment advice, and she thinks itā€™s good advice electorally so sheā€™s taking it because she cares more about her own political ambitions than anything else.

So we can assume a few things if she becomes president:

  1. Sheā€™ll be more pragmatic than most of us would like.

  2. Sheā€™ll be more concerned with getting re-elected than having a successful first term.

  3. Sheā€™ll likely owe favors to the establishment of the party and likely moderate some of her positions quite a bit.

Ironically, as much as she is known to have pissed off Obama by battling him on stuff, her trajectory from campaign ā†’ presidency now looks much more like his than a lot of us would have thought a couple months ago.

What Iā€™m now curious to see is whether Bernie goes in on her in the next debate. Sheā€™s left the door wide open, and if he goes at her I think he will just absolutely destroy her on healthcare and grab back a lot of the liberal wing of the party. They clearly have been trying not to go at each other and have been sort of taking turns fending of attacks from the moderates, but if he views this as a betrayal (and I imagine he does), he might take the gloves off.

Iā€™m a great case study in how much support she could lose to him. I donā€™t think my political positions on issues have changed much since like 2015. However, I was always a bit leery of Bernie because of the socialist label. I viewed him as clearly better than Hillary, and I was in favor of some of his positions, but I thought some others were too much too fast. So my vote in 2016 was easy and I was rooting for him, but once the 2020 field was set, I knew I liked Warren more. I had been a huge fan of hers for several years, I really believed she was a fighter for the poor and middle class, and I thought she was the perfect balance of a liberal fighter and a pragmatic - she knew we had to roll up our sleeves and battle, but she was cunning and not too idealistic to get stuff done. Also I felt like her exact positions were closer to me than Bernieā€™s, although obviously theyā€™re all pretty close together. But with the financial crash, the bailouts, etc, I thought she was just an absolute beast in terms of taking the fight to the 1%.

So when Iā€™m at the point where Iā€™m saying she can fuck off and Iā€™m a near-lock to vote for Bernie, I have to imagine sheā€™s got some problems. And sheā€™s dug her own political grave at this point, because even if she shifts back later on the damage is done.

I donā€™t know when the eDems are going to figure this out (likely never), but most people would prefer to vote for someone they have some policy disagreements with who they believe is authentic and telling it the way they see it, rather than someone whoā€™s trying to do focus groups and polling to pick the most popular position on every issue. Give me the person with principles, and Iā€™ll at least know theyā€™re doing what they truly believe is best. This is also why you see very few character attacks on Bernie, or why youā€™ll hear some moderates or right-center folks say they hate a lot of his policy but they think heā€™s a likable person who believes in what heā€™s pushing.

Not so coincidentally this is what Beto fucked up this time around too. Loved him in the Texas senate race, and whether it was honest or not you really got the impression he was like, ā€œFuck it, this is what I believe in, this is what I think is best, this is who I am, this is what I want to do, vote for me or donā€™t.ā€ He was authentic in that campaign, or at least he felt it.

Then he ran for president and all of a sudden DGAF Beto was like Beto Bot 2.0. Roll up your sleeves 7.5 inches, stand on a table in each stop, talk in platitudes, donā€™t steak out any positions because youā€™ve got to wait until later to see whatā€™s polling best, etcā€¦ Then El Paso happens, he goes full DGAF mode and all of a sudden heā€™s making a little noise again, then reverts back.

This campaign season is like watching a bunch of untested golfers in a major on Sunday. Itā€™s all fine and dandy until they make the turn and look up at the leaderboard, then itā€™s like OH MY GOD Iā€™M LEADING A MAJOR and they panic and self-destruct. Then the next guy does the same, and so on, and the cream stays at the top and a couple elites battle it out.

The problem is, we lack authentic elites. The obvious one is Bernie, but heā€™s old, just had a heart attack and has the socialist label. Pete has the charisma and talent and ability to sell the authentic vibe, but you start looking at some of his positions and theyā€™ve shifted over time. Castro has had his moments, but Iā€™m sure if he was at the forefront being vetted weā€™d be ripping him on some of this stuff too.

I mean, it is what it is. We all know we have to vote for whoever wins the primary, and Iā€™m sure a lot of us will be knocking on some doors for Bernie during the primary, so weā€™ll see what happens.

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QFT

I would take someone I often agree with, think is a good and honest person over someone who seems pandering and seems to agree with me 100%.

I donā€™t think Liz is in HRCā€™s pandering league here by any means, but sheā€™s no Bernie or AOC either.

Right, which is kind of what I was getting into in terms of opening herself up to an unfair comparison to HRC that now will begin to stick due to this issue and sexism.

And yeah like Bernie and AOC leave no doubts where they stand and what theyā€™re going to try to do about it. They ooze authenticity. If I felt like Pete was authentic on everything, Iā€™d be way more likely to overlook some of my policy disagreements with him.

Hopefully this helps Bernie out a ton now that heā€™s far and away the most authentic Dem candidate.

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@BestOf

This is where Iā€™m at too. I donā€™t know why Warren released that plan. I can think of about a half dozen reasons, and they are all really bad.

After sleeping on it, I think Pete fucked up big time with his response. He came at Warren from the right like he has been the last 1.5 months or so when he should have said ā€œHey, that sounds a lot like MFAWWI.ā€

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Yeah, Iā€™m still pretty mad at Warren.

SMH really Bernie is the only honest person in the entire field who isnā€™t just running for power.

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cb760f3

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This is great and hot fire except for your use of ā€œliberal wing.ā€ Warren is and always has been a part of the ā€œliberal wing,ā€ as far as that exists. She just fooled people into thinking she was part of the progressive wing.

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Big Structural Compromise.

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pops head up

ā€œtold ya soā€

disappears

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This is not as convincing as you think, I have a feeling.

Anyone know how many more young people will have turned voting age since the 2016 election? They will tend to be the most progressive and I predict a record turnout for 18-21 who usually donā€™t bother voting. Iā€™m not sure this calculus is being properly considered in polling. Even if you just take the number of kids enraged about having risked their lives showing up for school because the current establishment seems unwilling or unable to pass any meaningful gun legislation, not to mention climate change, I think itā€™s enough to get them into the voting both.

Iā€™m off the Liz train, but I represent a laughably small fraction of the primary voting pool.

As much as we hate it, I think Biden is still a big favorite. The appetite for a flamethrower, astoundingly and to my infinite rage, just isnā€™t there.

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