My impression is that this varies by state, but Pete doesn’t really get to tell the electors/delegates who to vote for in that case. And really it’s up for grabs when there’s no majority - and that’s when they nominate Hillary.
Pete’s the worst VP choice. Any minority would be a lot better.
1 Like
Yeah, right, those Latinos who you can’t trust to oppose illegal immigration from Mexico will never turn out if there isn’t a minority on the ticket. And the Blacks? C’mon, can they be counted on? Good thing the Dems have all those reliable white male Christian voters!
1 Like
Mayor Pete as VP sort of makes sense since he’s a guy who can win over centrist Dems who are scared about the scary commie socialist lady. Maybe he brings some youth appeal. OTOH, it would be disappointing to not have any minority representation on the ticket.
Feel like Castro could be a better choice. Abandon Indiana/Iowa and make a play for the Southwest.
He’s also really young.
Except it’s old people who actually like him. The young people ALL like Bernie.
1 Like
Pete won’t win Indiana anyway.
It’s an interesting decision though as dems definitely lost ground in rural areas. fwiw I think getting minority turnout is more important than centrist points there.
Not that it matters that much anyway, but closing off every viable path trump has is a good thing.
gay male should count as minority representation
apparently pete said it was a two way race between him and warren
I hope he meant Iowa only–he’s not winning NH obviously. Biden can slide a lot and still win South Carolina. Bernie will get enough delegates to still hang around too in IA/NH and he’ll get some in NV as well and VT is super tuesday. Still he’s done well to get himself in the conversation, even if overall he still has a long way to go, since he’ll get wrecked in the northeast (two strong north east candidates) /south (very low black support) and probably won’t do well in the west (as that’s more warren/bernie type of country).
if amy drops before MN, he can about sweep the midwest though but biden/warren don’t have to win, just keep it close and win higher margins elsewhere.
That said, Pete wins Iowa and he’ll auto get a boost but Ted Cruz won Iowa (Trump and Rubio were all within a point or two of him) in 16 so…
Once votes start getting counted it will be a whole new ballgame. If Pete wins Iowa then Biden’s support in SC will get crushed as centrists get the message that Pete is the hot new establishment candidate and Joe is done. Then whichever of Warren/Bernie wins NH will be the left’s consensus candidate. But something that could disrupt this dynamic is if Warren or Bernie wins Iowa and NH. Then probably whoever has the strongest Iowa showing out of Biden and Pete will attract the centrist support. Things will shift fast once votes start getting tallied. Jeb? dropped out after SC.
Pete is behind Harris and Steyer in SC. STEYER! He’s not going to do well in the South under any circumstances.
anyway klob is one poll away from december so she’s getting to iowa. About 25% of dem voters still wish there was someone else–this despite a field of a fuckton of people.
As I am getting inundated with ads since I live in Iowa, you will all be happy to know that Pete has made attempting to kill single payer healthcare in this country the central issue of his campaign.
Seriously fuck this guy. I don’t want him anywhere near any political office with this Republican bullshit. Like the only argument for him at this point is at least there’s less of a chance that he’ll keep immigrants in concentration camps but I’m not really even convinced of that at this point since he’s backtracked away from decriminalizing the border too. His military background means we can expect more endless warfare and “defense” spending too. How anyone could possibly trust that a guy who joined the military in 2009 as a way to boost his political career is well-intentioned is beyond me.
Alright, I’ll end this rant and see myself out now.
13 Likes
Not being from the US I am often not in tune with specifics in US states, so my question on this is how much of Biden support in Soutt Carolina is because of centrists or rather if a significant amount of Biden voters are low info African American voters who trust Biden because of the Obama connection.
I think those would be the least likely to go to Pete and break more towards Bernie or Kamala Harris
I’d guess 20% centrists 80% relatively low info African American. If I recall, SC is usually an outlier that will move closer to the Iowa/NH vote.
Unlike some other places with more “independents” most black voters in SC will be reliable “Dem” voters even if they don’t follow politics.
I don’t know about usually, but in 2016 Bernie won NH by 22 pts, Hillary won Iowa by 0.2 points, and Hillary won SC by 47 points. They all seem pretty different.
People are not monolithic, even on what issues they are “conservative” or “liberal” about. Black people are almost all voting Democratic and that goes for whether they are conservative, liberal, progressive, socially liberal but fiscally conservative, or (quite commonly) religious and socially conservative but economically left leaning.
When in doubt, why not look at polling?
Biden >>>>>> Sanders >> Warren = Harris >> Booker >> Yang
pete’s getting some hate for other shit he’s saying–but it’s working. That shit is what dem voters want at least in Iowa. He reminds me a lot of Obama playbook–centrist with pulling out hope like statements and everything else is just going where the wind blows there. Klob might do just well enough to keep him from winning Iowa though. Pete’s not winning NH or SC and probably not NV either so this race is gonna get weird quick with nobody clearly in front into super tuesday. (ie, if biden doesn’t jeb, he’s winning SC unless clinton/obama jumps in unexpectedly. I’d also be surprised if warren/bernie somehow KO’d each other out of NH)