I think it’s as simple as biden was obama’s VP and they know who that is and they’re perfectly happy with that rather than going with in their view, the unknown commodity.
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Preaching to the choir but the primary process is unbelievably ridiculous.
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In how many precincts do you expect Klobuchar to get over the 15% viability threshold for receiving any delegates?
The fact that tens of thousands of people from all around the country have all flown to Iowa for a special weekend three months before any voting and a year before the actual election is some real end of the republic kinda shit. Even ignoring the fact that 90% of these people are all going to vote for the same person in November 2020.
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I was one of them. And it was as weird and amazing as I expected.
That being said, politicians being treated like rock stars is disturbing and needs to end.
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I was just about to say exactly this in response to the last video you shared in your thread. I mean, that event/weekend looked really interesting, but the rock starification of politicians is gross and will lead us in the wrong direction imo.
She’s also going for the folksy centrist midwest vote, that might be enough to cost pete winning the state of iowa which would be headlines for awhile regardless of how many delegates so and so actually got–it’s also possible she gets some from minnesota.
Thing is, if she doesn’t have 15% in the first caucus round, she’s declared non-viable and her supporters have to leave or choose a viable candidate.
This is by precinct, of course. Caucuses are weird and undemocratic and Iowa’s dem caucus is extra complicated. For candidates like Klob, her result will really depend on the actual geographic distribution of her voters.
and yet kamala harris decided to devote all her resources… there?
I don’t think the disturbing this is politicians being treated like rock stars. The disturbing thing is how rock stars are treated. What does it mean to be treated like rock stars?
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Caucuses would be wonderful and interesting if you could make everyone participate. With the viability requirement, it’s like almost-instantaneous runoff voting. In theory, I think it’s a good way for whittling a large field down to a manageable number of candidates.
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No clue why Kamala/Booker/Castro/Klob are still in this. To say nothing of the various third-tier candidates. There must be some political logic to it, but it all seems like a huge waste of time to me.
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If anyone has any interest in you (all those have enough interest from some people), you really shouldn’t be dropping before Iowa, and really not before New Hampshire. Why would you bother running for prez if you’re not going to make it to 3 months before the first caucus? That seems nonsensical to me.
It’s also worth noting the schedule has changed a ton this year, and that the old ways of primaries might not shake out the same as it has in the past. The fact that Pete has become a contender in Iowa shows what a small amount of support can build to as it gets closer.
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castro no idea as he’s already letting staffers go but booker is in nov debate, kamala is in dec debate, and klob just needs one poll for dec debate, no reason to pass that TV time up really. I assume booker drops out shortly after nov debate. Klob seems likely to at least get to Iowa.
For most of them, they aren’t running for anything else in 2020 and if they’ve got the money there’s no real reason to drop out, not like any of those are gonna need much at all for senate runs. Hey we’re the incumbent in blue state vote for me campaigns.
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Hang around just in case one of the top candidates screws up big time. Maybe also stay in for goals other than winning the nomination.
Someone like Castro is clearly staying in as long as he has a platform to push the party on certain issues. It might also be good for the party to have some non-white faces on the debate stage for as long as possible.
I got bored and decided to draw up a warren vs trump based only on 2019 polls, so take it with a grain of salt because 1) sample size and 2) there’s still a long way to go and yes kinda irrelevant but I did it so I’m posting it somewhere. Dealwithit.jpg
key differences, NV very slight red AZ/WI/FL/NH(really?) all tossups PA is only slight blue unfortunately.
for the good news–MI looks good and I thought OH would be harder red than that.
If map holds up Trump has to win 3 of those 4 tossups to win the presidency and one has to be Florida. In other words he has to win 2 of AZ/NH/WI but all that is a hypothetical and we got at least another few months of crazy bananapants so whatever.
We should have a max 9 month primary season.
The Circus (Showtime show with Alex Wagner and Jon Heilman) was all about the Iowa dinner this week. The Circus is a great show (the sole reason I get Showtime) and the episode was pretty good.
Hate to break it to you, but we’re here and have been since 1992, with 2016 being the apex. We’d have to turn the car around and drive a long way back.
Kamala is dead in NH thanks to Bernie and Liz being from neighboring states. Kamala’s path is to get 3rd in Iowa, win or place second in SC, and ride that to a (maybe) 2nd in CA (where she’s currently 3rd or 4th). Her path basically involves other candidates being involved in a multi-car pileup. Her new slogan should be, “Like Beto, but not as realistic.”
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As long as we have fixed-length terms, people will start running as soon as the last election is over. We could have the first primaries in July. That just means we would have six extra months of candidates who won’t win hanging around. The sooner we get to real votes being counted, the sooner we get rid of third- and fourth-tier candidates.