not sure why these aren’t in descending order, but hey, I didn’t write the tweet.
https://twitter.com/ElectionsIndex/status/1188622067903750144?s=20
He’s not close to wrong about this.
And that’s why Yang is pretty boned. He can raise more money than the other Tier 2 candidates but them getting N times more mentions than him is really harmful. Those free mentions are super valuable.
FYP. Sorry I actually like Yang and they really are fucking him over. Being excluded from the graphics a lot of the time is just the tip of the iceberg. They aren’t covering him at all most of the time, and when they mention him it’s usually to use him as a potential problem for the left wing candidates.
Wikipedia table has been updated for Dem debate qualifications: 2020 Democratic Party presidential debates - Wikipedia
Cliffs:
- Locks: Biden, Warren, Sanders are in
- Nearly there: Pete and Harris need 1 more qualifying poll and it can be either 4% national or 6% in an early state poll
- Long shots: Klob, Beto, and Yang are the only others who meet the donation requirement, and neither of them have ANY qualifying polls. Steyer, Booker, Gabbard, and Castro look like they will get their on the donation requirement. Of them, Steyer has (1) of (4) required 4% national polls. Rest don’t have any.
December debate looks like it will be a 5 person event max. It will be interesting to see what Harris/Pete camp do as it gets closer to the December 12 cutoff and they don’t have the last poll they need.
It’s almost impossible Harris or Pete miss at this point. There’s so many polls left.
Probably only one if that gets in out of the rest, 4% is no joke klob’s the best odds of that group.
Just because you can invent a way in which Dems wouldn’t have to be as bad as Reps in order nominate Biden doesn’t mean it’s a good description of reality. What will have happened is that Republicans nominated the worst possible choice and Dems will also have nominated their worst possible choice (twice in a row). After that people vote for their party as reliably and thoughtfully as they root for their favorite sports team.
And I never said Biden was as bad as Trump, just that Democratic voters are as bad as Republican voters.
https://mobile.twitter.com/AkbarSAhmed/status/1188889309203632128
https://mobile.twitter.com/AkbarSAhmed/status/1188890010029821954
https://mobile.twitter.com/AkbarSAhmed/status/1188890424989102080
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Your thesis is fact free though. There is data showing Republicans to be more racist, homophobic, religiously bigoted, etc. See here, for example (ignore the headline).
You, in the top decile of informed voters, who lived through the entirety of his political career, were warm on a Biden run in 2017 (I can find those posts if you don’t believe). Only through increased information did you come to realize that Biden sucks.
A large share of voters will go to the polls not knowing much more than Biden was VP for the best President of their lifetime, and maybe they’ll know he’s the guy who wants politics to go back to being “nice” or whatever. This is not remotely the same as voting for a gameshow host who was very vocally racist and made bigotry and xenophobia the centerpiece of his campaign.
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The problem with nominating Biden is how many voters are going to come to the same conclusion as microbet as the thing wears on. We’re in the top decile of informed voters now. People will get more and more informed as we approach election day and as Biden has more and more opportunities to fuck up.
Which is why we, the top decile of informed voters, are starting to view the Biden candidacy with horror lol.
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I agree with all of this. I’m just arguing against his thesis that a Biden nomination means both sides are equally bad.
I’ve only ever been warm on Biden in the way I’ve been occasionally warm on HRC (which I have).
A large share of voters go to the polls not knowing much more than that they are Republicans or that they are Democrats and they vote accordingly.
And Trump, with the same platform of bashing immigrants, would have had a decent shot of winning the Democratic Party nomination in 2016.
So, 94% vs 99% D vs. R on would vote for a Black candidate? Not a very big difference. Same 94% would vote for a Jewish person? Nice job Democrats! One election cycle with a popular Democrat who campaigned on being tough on the border (like Bill Clinton) would turn a lot of those numbers around.
I think it’s more like a Biden nomination means both sides are equally stupid, not equally bad. One side might be less bad, but that has nothing to do with being smarter.
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But the parties would rearrange. It’s like saying Democrats are worse than Republicans because they supported segregation. People switch affiliations as a result of major policy change.
The current base of the Democratic party are clearly less bad than the current base of the Republican party, who are 85% ride or die Trumpists.
Some Hispanic Democrats would switch affiliation if a Dem candidate campaigned hardcore against immigration sure, but it wouldn’t make many other Democrats change affiliation.
I just don’t think it’s that big a difference between the populations. Part of that is making Republicans, most of which are dumb and don’t pay much attention and just vote for the R, as worse than they are, and the other part is making Dems out to be better.
I know the Dems have the option of nominating someone who has fought for war, to especially criminalize Black people, on defending the border, and on behalf of Wall Street and if they do it, what are we supposed to think about Democratic voters? Either they’re just as rotten or just as blindly partisan as Republicans.
Why stop at Ds and Rs, the correct answer is that most people, of all races, nationalities, ethnicities, sexualities, etc. suck hard.
Go across the world and overwhelmingly you will find the dominant group to be racist/discriminatory as fuck against one group or another.
Misanthropy is the correct answer, IMO.
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Somewhat true, but somewhat not imo. Most people aren’t that bad, but are easily swept along with a group and easily rationalize their positions as actually being good. Mostly my point is that people are mostly partisan. There may be times that allegiance changes and those changes may be enough to affect elections, but such things are determined at the margins. Most people are just party loyalists. But, also, you’re right. In the face of Trump in particular, Dems are telling a story about themselves that “Love Trump Hate”. At other times, with other candidates, the story isn’t the same.