Who will run in 2020?

It boggles your mind that the country that elected Donald Trump POTUS might nominate Joe Biden?

Maybe Iā€™m holding Dem voters to a higher standard but it Boggles my mind that they might look at the various candidates and think Biden is the best of the bunch. I get that the centrists are never going for Bernie or maybe even Warren in the primary, but I donā€™t get why they arenā€™t going more for Buttigieg/Beto/Kamala etc. My guess/hope is they arenā€™t paying attention yet.

They donā€™t. Most people have no idea what the candidatesā€™ platforms are. They go by name recognition and some vague memory that Biden was Obamaā€™s VP.

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Bidenā€™s the most ā€œqualifiedā€ person running, just like Clinton in 2016 and Kerry in 2004. Mainstream Dems think the person with the best resume is the most electable even in the face of those ā€œelectableā€ candidates losing elections.

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Does that mean that if the election was held today Biden is the candidate most likely to beat Trump? If so, and given the apparent inattention so many US voters give to politics, is it also likely that come Election Day 2020, he will still be the most likely candidate to beat Trump? That the latter might be true is what boggles my mind.

Polls like this that are so far from what other pollsters are getting (particularly from an outlet like CNN that is deeply in the tank for Biden) are deeply suspect. It makes me wonder what kinds of questions they asked before they asked who the people they were polling were going to support. It also makes me wonder who they called.

Maybe itā€™s just because I hate CNN passionately. Honestly I hate every TV news channel. They are all excellent representations of everything wrong with large scale corporate media that sell ads for other large corporations to make money.

Meanwhile the only Biden supporters I know IRL are old white people who watch a ton of CNN.

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My mother-in-law is for Liz, but I should ask my mom. I bet sheā€™s for Biden. I could probably talk her out of it too.

Parent banking is important. Move her to anyone but Biden. Iā€™m already working on the old white Biden supporter who I still talk to. Iā€™m not going to have my wife start talking to my MIL again so that sheā€™ll stop supporting Biden. Sheā€™s a nightmare and Iā€™m super glad sheā€™s not in our lives any more. Iā€™m not going to disrupt a major life improvement to move off one Biden supporter in KY lol.

This. I worked in the Health Service for 10 years and people certainly donā€™t do it for the money. Also, every time Iā€™ve been involved with hospitals over urgent medical attention for family members Iā€™ve been bowled over by how dedicated and caring the underpaid, overworked staff are and by the standard of care.

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Iā€™m lucky in the Mother-in-law department. Sheā€™s one of my favorite people in the world.

Maybe but irrelevant because some important steps were skipped. See below.

Some more people will start paying attention when the primaries start. Then some more when the Democratic candidate is nominated and again some more in the weeks before the election. I bet in October of 2007 Hillary was the front-runner.

This is a bit of a double edged sword though. The tories can ride these decent people right to the edge and the holes donā€™t necessarily show up straight away so they get to deflect responsibility.

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Take off the tin foil hat.

All of the polls lately have been showing Biden with the lead and growing. This may be the most extreme, but that week where Warren seemingly overtook him in the polls is long gone. The last 5 polls on RCP all have him at least 8% ahead of Warren.

Yeahā€¦ I gotta be honest I donā€™t know any Biden supporters who arenā€™t ancient old people. None of them feel all that strongly about it either. I have a lot of questions about the underlying assumptions that weā€™re getting from pollsters in the post Trump era.

I know, and when I worked there we were aware that we were effectively being used by the Tory government, but thereā€™s only so much papering over of the the cracks you can do that keeps together critical services without exposing other services eg outpatients and A&E where waiting times are pretty bad.

I donā€™t think anyoneā€™s really in any doubt that the NHS is way underfunded. Anecdotally I was in a City pub a couple of years ago after Labourā€™s manifesto was launched, not the most Labour-friendly of envrionments, but people were (surprising to me) loudly saying theyā€™d be Ok with paying another couple of percent income tax if it was going into improving the NHS.

One of the problems many people have with tax rises is that they fear the extra funds will be absorbed by government departments expanding to build empires for those in charge, which is a real thing Iā€™ve witnessed myself. The UK civil service employs about 400,000 people, for example.

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Youā€™d win.

scrolling down to October 2007, we have a CBS poll with Hillary 45%, Obama 16%, John Edwards 7%

the closest CNN poll was done in early November 2007: Hillary Clinton 44%, Barack Obama 25%, John Edwards 14%, Bill Richardson 4%, Joe Biden 3%, Chris Dodd 2%, Dennis Kucinich 2%, Mike Gravel 1%

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I wonder how many times Biden is going to have to apologise for past words and deeds.

Iā€™d settle for him apologizing for his current words and deeds.

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I donā€™t like the denial then the private matter phrase. Itā€™s not a private matter if itā€™s not true lady.

Not enough times.