Who will run in 2020?

So by debunked you mean you don’t believe the poll? Cool

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It’s one small poll in 2008. several months removed from the election. It’s sure gotten its mileage, hasn’t it? Not to mention completely different scenarios, obama won anyway, wasn’t a close race, etc. etc. It’s just a ridiculously stupid line to keep trotting out and I’m not sure the point it’s even trying to make. Gj?

The point is that the media and people in general pretend that Bernie’s supporters are unique in the fact that they will not vote for other candidates in the general. It was literally the argument I was responding to. The only available data shows that that’s not true, and the fact that similar criticisms aren’t levied against supporters of other candidates seems to show that it’s not made in good faith against Bernie.

This is all incredibly obvious.

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tabbaker posted this

MimosaDef replied

catfacemeowmers replied

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The take home message of that table to me is that they really fucked up in 2016 making Hillary the nominee.

There is a problem with your thinking. It might be a lack of clarity about what others believe, or it might be an inability to appropriately gauge your own certainty (it could even be both). It might be simple indifference to what others think and a mistaken belief that making a claim is the same as proving it. Or something else altogether.

All I can be certain of is that your certainty is completely worthless.

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And also that those numbers are not in any way unusual. Similar numbers of voters for other GOP primary candidates voted for Hillary over Trump. It sucks. Those people suck. But it’s a really dishonest attack to imply that it’s a problem that’s unique to Bernie or his supporters.

The type of voter that went Bernie → Trump despite Bernie not bending at all towards the center is an example of him appealing to more than just progressives. He’s stealing votes from the right without compromising his progressive goals. People always defend moderate Dems for sacrificing their values, and triangulating to try to steal votes in the middle. Bernie has been able to appeal to a non-left demographic that otherwise would not vote Democrat. That said, the large majority of Bernie supporters are progressive and would gladly vote for the next most progressive candidate, if Bernie were out of the race. Trying to spin the subset of Bernie or Bust voters as a negative just doesn’t seem productive. Sure there are weirdos out there with poorly calibrated moral barometers but Bernie or Bust people are exceptions and they are a good aspect of Bernie’s campaign reaching out and stealing independent voters without him sacrificing at all on his promises.

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I’m not sure about all that, I would want to see a breakdown of the phenomenon accounting for states with open primaries. I think OP states should see a fair amount of tactical-ish voting against one’s less preferred candidate for the party one usually doesn’t vote for in the general. That is, some people voting Clinton as an anti-Obama vote, some voting Sanders as an anti-Clinton vote etc. Would be disproved easily if the numbers were ~consistent across all states.

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I hadn’t considered OP voting. That is a fair point.

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But didn’t you say you wouldn’t vote for Biden?

Just one poll but I had a laugh

look where Harris is

https://twitter.com/EmersonPolling/status/1184861754280550411

Someone else? There are already eleventy billion candidates…who the fuck else do they want?

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Biden tweet is absolutely unforgivable

It’s probably the same 4% of dems that support Donald Trump in every poll.

This is one of the problems of the clown car dem primary. A non trivial number of the losing candidates supporters will stay home or spite vote Trump.

Given the viability threshold in the Iowa caucuses, who are supporters of those small candidates going to flock to?

The same thing would happen if you only have two serious candidates.

I won’t. I live in Maryland where there is zero chance it matters and I have no interest in helping Biden run up a popular vote tally. If I lived in Pennsylvania I would snap vote for him. As it stands if he’s the nom I’ll likely vote third party like I do for many of my local races (which are also going dem 100% of the time and feature shit Dem candidates) but who knows maybe I’ll change my mind before then.

I will vote for any of the other plausible candidates, including Pete who I really dislike. I also voted for Hillary.