Who will run in 2020?

Politics & News
2123

Nobody will pick Yang as VP, but it would be good politics AND good policy for the nominee to announce that if they win, they will direct a cabinet secretary (OMB? Labor?) to start experimental pilot programs for UBI in a handful of urban, suburban and rural areas and study the effects and impacts.

They can then have the results published and referred to a bipartisan (lol) select committee, for plenty of bipartisan (lol) discussion (grandstanding).

It could turn out some Yang supporters, it wonā€™t cause any attacks that wonā€™t already be coming, and the nominee can basically say weā€™re studying it for the future so that if/when automation is a large enough threat to our economy, whoever is POTUS will already have data about what works/doesnā€™t.

By the same token, I donā€™t think Warren should pick Bernie as her VP. I do think she should make it public well before election day, perhaps at the convention, that Bernie will be her Sec of HHS in charge of spearheading the transition to Medicare for All.

If you gave him a keynote spot on the first night of the convention, and had Warren make a surprise appearance to introduce him with that announcement, it would go a long way to uniting her supporters and his, and toward making sure they turn out to vote.

If thereā€™s a fracture with the moderate wing of the party, you could do something similar with a Cabinet post for someone more in line with Biden that doesnā€™t impact your major goals too much. Bonus points if you can find someone whose seat could go to a more liberal candidateā€¦ So Harris and Gillibrand are good options. Coons and Durbin are others. I canā€™t see a path to getting Feinstein or Schumer to go that route, but it would be awesome if they did. The key is finding an area where they are liberal enough to match up on policy. The problem is the more powerful ones would only leave their Senate seats for specific, major cabinet posts (like State).

But in a world where we have 50-52 Senate seats and nuke the filibuster, but still need the votes of 96-100% of the caucus to pass anything, swapping a Feinstein for a Swalwell or a Schumer for an AOC (as senator, not leader) could be incredibly important.

If you could get Schumer and Durbin out of the Senate, I think the favorites for leader would be (in no particular order) Harris, Booker, Brown, Kaine, and Klobuchar. Brown would be a great outcome, and it would strengthen his future re election bids for a valuable seat.

Another cool strategy would be to not tap Bernie for Vice President OR Sec of HHS, and attempt to create a lane for him to become Senate Majority Leader.

A President Warren would have some very interesting options if the Senate got to 50-50 or better. And if theyā€™re down a seat and thereā€™s a Republican senator from a state with a Democratic governor, sheā€™s got to go for it to try to get it to 50-50, nuke the filibuster and ram HR1-plus through before the special election. That would give Dems a shot at immediate control via winning all of the new seats from DC and PR, and a shot at gaining seats in 2022 by ending voter suppression.

There will be lots to discuss in Nov-Jan if Warren or Bernie winsā€¦

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2124

keeping that seat is the reason he didnā€™t run for president, and I think he even stated that publicly. I doubt heā€™d accept a VP ask for the same reason.

Heā€™s really popular in ohio, but that seat would snap flip red if he gave it up. Fuckinā€™ Ohio, man.

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2125

Would a Warren/Pete (or Bernie/Pete) ticket play well in the Midwest? Being so young, this could be a good set up for Pete running in 2024/2028.

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2126

Their voters are very similar demographically (college educated, politically engaged whites). It doesnā€™t really broaden her coalition. The reason Pete isnā€™t running for governor of Indiana rather than President, which normally would make more sense, is because he knows he has zero chance to win statewide there. Pete being neutral at best and perhaps a liability in the midwest has to dq him from Warrenā€™s vp.

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2127

https://mobile.twitter.com/teddyschleifer/status/1174331317464391680

2128

Came to post this. I think it might have been Chris Hayesā€™ pod that I heard her on and I was really impressed. She put in real work at the local level before hitting the national spotlight.

2129

Iā€™m not sure thatā€™s the thing to conclude from Pete not being able to win a statewide seat in IN.

Midwestern dems hate the labels they get from ā€œcoastal elitesā€ and tend to rally behind one of their own. Iā€™m not sure Pete as VP would win Indiana, but it would definitely play well in WI, MN, and MI, and could win back those 60k votes or however many it was.

I think it just depends on what their strategists think is important, and what states they want to go after in the general. I LOVE Stacy Abrams, but letā€™s be honest, Dems arenā€™t winning the southern states and her electoral college value is up in the airā€¦if weā€™re looking at the VP choice that way.

I donā€™t know who Biden would choose as VPā€¦I canā€™t think of any of the names being thrown about who would be the best fit for him. Honestly, Warren has way more options.

2130

Iā€™m not sure how much VP really matters at the end of the day. Obviously if they end up being a huge disaster it can sink a campaign, but Iā€™m not sure it can really make someone vote for a candidate they werenā€™t going to vote for anyways. If they are successful at making some news and being a good cheerleader and firing up the base, I suppose they can inject some life into the campaign. Sarah Palin was actually pretty good at this until she was outed as a total moron. But I donā€™t the strategy of using the VP to try and bring along voters from an area where the nominee is weak is proven effective.

If I were Warren Iā€™d want have someone who is going to stir some shit up and get some people excited. Beto seems like a good option to for this. While his campaign hasnā€™t gone well so far, he has a tendency to at least create some viral moments (natl anthem, gun control) which have energized democrats. You arenā€™t losing a legislative seat, and can possibly put the dem over the hump in Texas if things get weird.

Booker/Harris are also good if you think you need a minority on the ticket. Their senate seats should be pretty safe. Black turnout was definitely a problem for dems in 2016, and itā€™s something the party should at least try to address. Itā€™s not clear that putting one on the ticket as a VP is enough, but it wonā€™t hurt.

2131

I donā€™t think Abrams would be a good pick either, but tbh I canā€™t think of a single person whose last name isnā€™t ā€œObamaā€ that I would like strategically for Warrenā€™s VP.

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2133

I donā€™t think a communist dictator would be the wisest choice when Liz is already seen as too far left by some, but I defer to the wisdom of the forum.

But seriously, Iā€™m not seeing it. Whatā€™s the case? Are we going to the ā€œthis time Texas is in play for real!ā€ well, cuz Iā€™m not on board for it.

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2134

Castro seems like heā€™s competent, mostly inoffensive, and wouldnā€™t be hated by either the establishment Dems or the left wing. Maybe he helps establish a little support with Hispanic voters? I could see him being a legit centrist candidate for 2024/2028.

I think having two white people on the ticket is a bad look, but at the same time you want someone with real chops and not just a token minority.

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2137

If someone doesnā€™t want a woman president, theyā€™re not gonna vote for Warren just because she picks a male VP. Donā€™t think it matters either way.

2138

I agree with the above about Sherrod Brownā€“would be a good choice but would lose the Senate seat. However, that could be worth it to get OH. I also agree that Pete overlaps too much with Warren and doesnā€™t bring the juice electorally. Klob seems like sheā€™d be a solid VP choice, and she has the midwest thing, but two women vs Trump makes me nervous. Booker and Harris are good substantively and for some diversity, but they donā€™t bring anything positive to the table electorally.

I actually think the Beto could be the best option. Heā€™s dynamic, youthful, chicks dig him, would be a good surrogate, etc. I would love to see Beto debate Pence. Most importantly, TX is shifting blue while OH is getting redder. If Trump lost TX thatā€™s game for a long time and would help realign US politics. Iā€™m not saying he could shift the state in 2020, but Trump isnā€™t that popular in TX and he would have to spend a ton with Beto on the ticket. If latinos in TX became active, thereā€™s a legit chance Warren/Beto could win. (TX has like the lowest voter participation of all states, in part because its latinos are less engaged.)

2139

Klob? You gotta be kidding me.

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2140

Klob has VP written all over her, whether for Warren or someone else.

Edit: ā€œVP written all over herā€ isnā€™t particularly intended as a compliment.

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2141

lol no

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2142

You can all have theories about what voters are supposed to like, but polls are showing that old white people like Liz and young and minority people like Bernie. Wealthier and more educated people for Liz and working class and less educated for Bernie. Pete is really skewed towards older voters and I think Beto is too. And I think Bernie is the only one (other than Yang with a much smaller crowd) who has a fanclub where they may still come along just because heā€™s the VP, but might not if heā€™s just out of it. And despite Bernie not speaking any Spanish, heā€™s the favorite candidate of Hispanic voters.

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2143

Iā€™m down on a Warren/Castro ticket a bit because I didnā€™t realize until recently that her coalition diverges as much as it does with Bernieā€™s, to the extent I think she needs some blue collar appeal on the ticket that Castro doesnā€™t provide.

2144

Warren/Sanders ticket would actually be kind of cool, and it wouldnā€™t be up to the dem establishment to stop it; Liz and Bernie could have one meeting and be like wtf why not, and seriously, wtf why not? Who would be better for rallies, mid-west appeal, yes money, youth enthusiasm, debating Mike Pounce in the VP debate? Like I get there is some race representation logic thatā€™s supposed to make this idea unthinkable to run two old whiteys from New England, it would be a real risk, but the reward is there too.

2146

I honestly donā€™t think the VP pick is going to come from the current primary field.

Stacey Abrams, Tammy Duckworth, Jason Kander, Andrew Gillum, Tammy Baldwin all seem like reasonable choices that could have electoral college benefits.

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