Understood. That wasn’t the context of Clovis’ post which began the conversation.
I don’t think Ohio is the proxy for the Midwest you seem to think it is. For example, Trump won it by 8 points in 2020, and lost Minnesota/Michigan/Wisconsin/Pennsylvania.
Ohio is gone. It’s basically Oklahoma or Missouri at this point. Young people flee as soon as possible, leaving their boomer parents to reliably vote Nazi.
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PA almost voted for an outright snakeoil salesman, they’re not much more enlightened than OH. Who thinks Tucker can’t compete there?
If you think OH isn’t even winnable you can’t be super excited about the other midwestern states. Which the Dems have to win because they’ve completely abandoned the plan of picking up Hispanic voters.
Just occurred to me: if Fox pays the remainder of his contract, is the non-compete still in force? Can Fox keep Carlson from going to RT or Spotify or Rumble or a totally independent podcast just by paying him the rest of his contract? Probably, right?
Not sure if I’m understanding you correctly, but it seems to me like you’re saying that Tucker’s rhetoric is too extreme for the average uninformed voter that starts paying attention two months before the election.
I certainly hope it is, but after the 2016 campaign I wouldn’t be sure that explicitly hating on Asians and Trans people is a disqualifier for certain parts of the voting population.
Another one bites the dust.
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Ouch.
Honestly, 538 will be likely far better without Nate. I think some of the others there are solid and I’m guessing Nate was a pretty bad manager.
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Maybe, but this (if true) is especially weird:
https://twitter.com/ClareMalone/status/1650905245793304578
So they’re retaining the brand, but without Nate or the underlying data/models? What exactly is going to attract people?
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Should troll him and change the name to FiveThirtySeven.
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I mean Nate didn’t patent averaging polls together
I had assumed they would get to keep the modes (or at least versions of them), like when Nate quit BP but they kept PECOTA. Agree that without the models there is little point as they were only mediocre pundits.
Disagree with pretty much everything you’re saying here.
There absolutely can be a more polished version of Trump. We are talking about people having to make a decision between 2 candidates.
Carlson has the most effective qualities of both candidates, isn’t a corn cob, knows how to play the game at every level (he’s friends with Maddow) and is now getting soundly rejected by the cool kids.
If your argument is that Biden will beat any of the 3 in question, then you missed an inifinite number of spots to already make that point.
Bonus points for attacking the poors though. Irony is like infinity.
The problem with election models is anyone can average polls together. The real skill is in accurately quantifying the level of uncertainty in outcomes given a X point lead in these states. And that’s exactly the part that none of the people interested in 538’s election coverage cared at all about. Remember what made Silvers’ poll averaging career? He got like 49 out of 50 states right in the 2012 election, right? Well no shit, he was either going to get all the states right or 40 of the states right. Which is what happened in 2016. Ironically, getting the 2016 election “wrong” was really validating for his model. If the 2-1 and 3-1 favorite kept winning over and over again it would eventually make his model garbage, because he would have been overstating the uncertainty. But if you flip the 2012 and 2016 elections then he never would have become a thing because he got the election “wrong.”
But my point is that the only hard part of the model is the uncertainty, and nobody gaf about that. Just make something up, you’ll have the same mean as Silvers’ fancy model. Who cares if you get the uncertainty wrong when the events only happen every few years. It’s not baseball where there are thousands of games played every year.
I think there is a bit more than just averaging - you do need to adjust for skew and sample variance, etc.
I do agree that most people at the height of 538 just looked at binary right/wrong - which is the wrong way to view it. I didn’t view it that way and appreciated the nuance regarding the error, so perhaps and wrongly assumed that most people that have stuck with 538 are similar.
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We know that it will activate fascism in some people and we know it will terrify some people. That’s why in my original post on this I wrote “Very unpredictable IMO.” Recall that the origin of this thread of discussion was a claim that Tucker would kill Biden in an election. I think that’s not a slam dunk at all.
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One of you is Rick Wilson. Maybe more than one.
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I’ve been saying that for years!
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