Nate’s statistical work is horseshit tbh. Ever since PECOTA he basically just overcomplicates his models (read: puts his thumb on the scale) until he gets an answer that fits what he thinks will happen.
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I’ve never actually watched the Tucker show, but his very face and bearing is the epitome of an apple-polishing jackass. I mean, there’s hours of tape of this dude wearing a fucking bow tie in public. Biden would wipe the floor with him imo.
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You forgot to login to SSC.
Yeah, that seems pretty fair. Before nate people quoted the RCP average and that’s about it. There were more ‘serious’ models, but these were the same that got rekt in 2016, like the Princeton Election Consortium, whatever that was.
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Nate walked so that Kornacki could run
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But the way that most people consumed 538 isn’t much different than how they’d consume state by state RCP averages. Maybe 538 had better visualizations and explicitly stated uncertainties, but I really don’t think people cared about the latter at all. And that’s most of the work that went into it.
The pinnacle of election forecasting and visualization was the 2016 NYT needle. Will never be matched.
Lol underlying models
You hate to see it.
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Yeah he says it often enough to make it clear that he definitely thinks that the law shouldn’t allow his wife to divorce him if he doesn’t want her to.
I am sure a woman’s right to divorce is not long lived for this world.
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i’ve never been married, and my small family has never had a divorce in it so i never really thought about it. but i was watching a kdrama and they were talking about south korea still doesn’t have no fault divorce, so if a woman just wants to leave she has to be able to show that her husband is at fault in the marriage with proof to allow her a divorce if he disagrees…
i can thoroughly buy that the right would LOVE that model.
"Staring into the camera, Solovyov urged: “Tucker, come work with us! Solovyov Live is waiting for you, Tucker!” Earlier the same day, RT and Solovyov Live offered Carlson a job, on Twitter and Telegram respectively.
During his evening show, Solovyov proclaimed: “Freedom to Tucker Carlson!” Drobnitsky noted that the American host is not in prison, but Solovyov worried out loud that this might be exactly what’s coming next: “They’ll throw him in prison, wait and see.”
I guess that is a plus for us. We know he is not going to jail. In Russia he might be if he were opposing the government in power.
Although he mostly can’t go to jail because he is rich. I am sure he has left a dead person in a hotel room or two.
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The human race is too stupid to survive.
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Trump will call him “little Tucker the child…wait what was I saying again, they won’t even let you say that anymore” and it will be over for Tuck. Not sure you’ve been paying attention to politics over the last seven years if you think there’s any chance that Tucker could leverage his charisma (he’s not funny which is a big calling card for Trump) because he’s “friends with Maddow.”
ETA: no fucking clue what you mean by “bonus points for attacking the poors”—citation or get fucked
https://twitter.com/JeffYoungerShow/status/1650978424922464266
https://twitter.com/JeffYoungerShow/status/1650990718851203076
https://twitter.com/seriouspoolman/status/1650992007806894082
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Humans may have self-domesticated to become less reactively aggressive. Women chose mates who wouldn’t too easily fly off the handle and injure themselves or others because they (women) understood the need to prioritize sharing and cooperation. Men on the whole got the message not to be too big an asshole if you want to get laid. Maybe this is a continuation of that evolutionary trend.