Ukraine Invasion 2: no more Black Sea fleet for you

Realism itt

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Ukraine should negotiate settlement with Russia is sign my name with a crayon baby blather.

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When this kicked off, the Kenyan representative at the UN was speaking at the Security Council. He recounted his continent’s history of colonial powers sticking them with a lot of shitty borders and that there were many attempts to fix them with armies with the expected consequences.

Most African governments now think that current borders should be preserved at any cost because the consequences of fucking with them are huge, even if done peacefully. Preserving the norm against invading countries is important, even if it’s not a norm the US always follows.

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There’s a difference between not caring about something and having something at a lower priority than other things.

Interesting. How do you see this ending?

Ukraine should negotiate a settlement after it has impressed upon the Kremlin that it has the military power to hold them to the deal for the foreseeable future.

With Russia coming to the table, hat in hand.

Lost in all of this is that Ukraine used to have nukes to prevent exactly this type of situation. They were convinced to give them up for reasons by the “good guys” who said they’d have their backs if stuff went down. Now the rest of the world is just keeping its word. Seems like an open and shut case, or at least that’s my understanding of it. Guess the moral of the story is never give up your nukes.

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100% never ever give them up.

Also it wasn’t quite lost, I posted about it:

Just ignored.

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The Budapest memorandum has been brought up before ITT (as recently as yesterday, it seems) but was explained away thusly:

Wouldn’t ending the war reduce the chance of genocide? Seems like everyone should be pushing for peace.

Ukraine never had an independent nuclear weapons arsenal, or control over these weapons, but agreed to remove former Soviet weapons stationed on its territory.

Worked out well for Native Americans

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  1. Russia is already committing genocide in Ukraine.
  2. Freezing the conflict now doesn’t produce a real peace. Russia has shown no respect to previous treaties and agreements in Ukraine, and there’s no reason to think it will now.

I mean, it sounds like a great idea, but, one, why should the Ukrainians tolerate the genocide of their countrymen on the wrong side of enemy lines, and two, why would Russia not attack again if they can get the Ukrainians to stand down?

Native Americans weren’t in NATO.

Surely after being given Crimea and the Donbas Russia will be appeased and will leave the rest of Ukrainian held territory alone.

I don’t see any relevance of that to the theme of the post I replied to, but nevertheless Ukraine isn’t and never was in NATO either.

Surely, if there were a 16th-19th century NATO for indigenous people to join to protect themselves from European colonists, that would have been an extremely good thing?