I voted for him because I lived in CA, so my vote for president is worthless and because I wanted to still play on PokerStars. Your reason was better.
You’re not perceptive or intelligent enough to make any assessment of people’s views, and as we’ve already seen here
many of your posts display a determination not to even read posts you’re responding to as well as a defiantly assholeish content unique to you.
[For those on desktop, cartoon gif of Erdogan doing Turkish ice cream cone thing to Putin. Follows news that Turkey will enforce grain deal in black sea.]
Putin with no choice except to take it. Erdogan also trying to have his way with NATO and EU. Not sure how that’s going to go.
Of course. What I’m saying is that Russia knows it can’t trust the US not to let Ukraine into NATO if open hostilities are paused even if they pinky swear over the negotiation table. So if Russia can win this war (and I think you’re wrong that Ukraine is currently winning and is likely to win) they’re going to go the total collapse route and what’s left might be a rump state that Russia is indifferent to being in NATO or not.
I listed to a 90 minute podcast with 3 experts discussing Turkey’s foreign policy aims. Was pretty interesting.
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Keep us posted on the seige of Kyiv.
Is there anything the West should do about it?
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Written just before so doesn’t mention Prigozhin’s revolt. Published on the day.
“People from the FSB are furious about him and see him as a threat to the constitutional order,” said a source in the Russian political elite. “He has this big military group not controlled by the state, and after the war they will want their rewards, including political rewards.”
The history guy Mike Duncan says you never want to stiff your mercenaries. Prigozhin certainly seems to feel he got shorted. Even after he got his cash back he was complaining some of it was stolen. Putin may have fallen victim to one of the classic blunders.
Doesn’t work for me fwiw
I don’t know why you think that a commitment for Ukraine not to be admitted to NATO wouldn’t be viewed as credible by Russia. NATO itself is just a treaty commitment, so it would be really harmful for NATO countries to say that they wouldn’t let Ukraine in, then to let them in.
Nor is there really a point to hijinks like that. If the US wants to station the 1st Marine Division in Kherson to deter Russian aggression against Kiev, they can just do that without Ukraine being in NATO.
I think Russia views American diplomats as bad faith liars who just think the world should do as the US says. It’s irrelevant in any case as US diplomats would never make that commitment. Such a commitment might have prevented this war but at this point I don’t think it would be sufficient to end it. I’d be very happy to be proven wrong on both counts though.
None of this makes any sense. If the US has no credibility with Russia, then why would paper promises forestall a war? If US diplomats are just a bunch of bad-faith liars, why wouldn’t they agree to whatever promises were requested to get the outcome they wanted?
It makes a lot more sense (and is accurate) to view Russia’s pre-war diplomatic posturing as bad faith. They demanded a bunch of concessions from the US that were absolute non-starters so that they could convince the gullible that US intransigence was somehow the cause of the war, rather than Russia’s calculation that a war would be beneficial to their interests. Like if Russian diplomats thought that there was a snowball’s chance in hell that Washington would agree to any of their pre-war demands, they’re just morons who have no business in the embassy of a major power.
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Various western diplomats and leaders admitted after the war started that Minsk was as a bad faith sham designed to buy more time. You’re right that public declaration that Ukraine would never be in nato would have some force, probably even now. Certainly back then.
Western aligned Ukraine was the cause of the war. I agree compromising on that was a nonstarter with the neocons in power in the US so you’re right there.
Here’s 30 minutes of book excerpts from a Russian diplomat who resigned. https://youtu.be/bo0JAmQrJ4Y It notes, among many things, that Russian NATO demands were crazy but came from the top.
It’s an interesting look into the world of Russian diplomacy.
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Im curious how he make so much money selling hot dogs. Recipe? The only one doing it?
The story plays up the mustard. That’s my guess.