TopShot and other NFTs Part II: Electric Boondoggle

So it’s basically five card moment draw?

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15/25

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worse, it’s not out for months, was just a cheap ploy to increase sales before a monthly deadline for the #'s.

and it worked on me, god damnit

This looks like the classic store credit scam with an extremely vague lottery-style carrot dangle. Turn in your liquid assets for something that cannot be traded or sold in the marketplace for a 0.5% chance of getting one of the 7,000 valuable packs to be distributed over the 18 months. No indication of how many tickets those packs may cost other than it will be “substantial,” so there will be far more tickets acquired by customers than can be redeemed for those packs with the pack drop losers left holding store credit, the value of which will be entirely dictated on Top Shot’s terms.

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https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1388543762821943296?s=19

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That’s an actual decent use-case of NFTs though versus a simple ledger that says I own a gif.

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I have a few bucks in Zed with some other guys who are fully invested. I’m in a group chat with 3 of them and can barely understand what they are saying.

Here are some examples of content that comes across, with no context:

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You have to pony up.

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It’s probably something super simple like log into your crypto wallet, buy bitcoin with USD on the exchange, then convert it nine times into various shitcoins to transform into an ad hoc token called PONY.

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It sounds like there might be a drop next week. I’m told your best bet is to hope to get lucky at the drop. If that fails, you can get a horse to start with for around 0.14 eth (secondary market).

basically a product aimed directly at this group of people. awesome. … UP racing stable? lets kick in to buy a digital horse? … a while back on 22 there was a thread of folks trying to do this with a real horse I think. …

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Just spent an hour looking at ZED. Not really sure what to think. A few different parts of it … drops, secondary markets, genetics, breeding, twitch streamers, seems super common to have multiple horses, constant races going, data and 3rd party tools reminds me of poker, seems pretty small though, overall… a very complicated casino? Moving money around is still a pain, multiple wallets required, plugins, etc. They bill it as a game of skill …

Also, I got bored with it in the hour. So there’s that.

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The combination of super complicated and that there is a bunch of analysis of the data required to be successful at this makes it a pretty clear no for me. Seems like a pretty strongly -EV spot, similar to being the fish at a poker table full of crushers.

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Or it’s super profitable with very limited research like Poker 15 years ago

(I did not do limited research because lol fake horses)

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Imagine if we could solve digital horse racing. Could be huge profit.

I assume the races are all based on formulas (maybe with a bit of randomness thrown in), so should be able to solve it and figure what horses and races are profitable.

thought the big profit was buying a horse at the drop and flipping it

Getting a horse is the free money, but pretty sure there is also money to be made by racing them. Sort of like TopShot where the free money is pax, but you can grind out by buying mispriced moments.

Anyone know what the drops cost?