lol - I hopped in the queue at 100k+ and then forgot about it.
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I just went to turn off my laptop (1:40am ET) and it was still on the âbuyâ screen. I clicked and I was able to buy the pack after all that time.
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the first law of NFTâs is
packs = NFTâs go up else NFTâs go down
topshot crushed this week simply by having a ton of shitty packs. People mass bought in the mp.
Topps only has packs if you craft which nobody wants to do with this set so everything going down except for what whales want, thatâs going up somehow
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When you all say TS NFTs go to zero, we are talking about 35k+ CCs right? Asking for a friend who has bought some LEs which appear to be going up
In other words, is there any path towards +EV in buying and holding or is everything just about short term flipping?
I donât see much path towards long term plays. If this even holds as a thing, there will be millions more moments. Why would a casual care that much which curry or lebron they have?
Isnât that how physical cards work? The scarcer and older the better? If Iâm a casual I think I would much rather have a TS debut S1 of my favorite player than whatever came out last week. And if not, why would I pay anything at all for the current moment?
I donât really see how this can be a long term thing without long term value in the NFTs. If we think this is a fad thatâs just gonna slowly go away and the user base will disappear then I totally accept that. But I would have thought that if all old NFTs are virtually worthless then that has to mean no one would have interest in the platform itself?
A lot of these seem to be retaining value quite well, itâs just the super common open-ended moments that arenât, and this is exacerbated by stupid challenges.
Totally open to being wrong about this, just struggling for analogs.
What S1 moments have retained value? AFAIK they have all dropped massively in the past month or two with the possible exception of Lebron
But people were always saying buy S1 stuff it will be sought after years down the road if this stays a thing. They could defintely be right but if you bought in late Feb, early March you are getting killed right now, if you just treat it as a long term buy and forget about it investment you might be rewarded, who knows. I already have plenty of those investments in other things so Iâm more interested in short term flips and quick gains
I mean just to look at the very first one I clicked on:
If this was any other type of investment it would be misleading to say âdropped massivelyâ and âhasnât retained value.â Its significantly down from itâs peak sure, so if you bought it then yes thats not so great, but graphs of speculative assets usually have that kind of volatility and its definitely not falling in a way thats proportionate to increased supply agnostic of scarcity/series.
Edit - to be clear Iâm definitely not knocking flipping as the #1 most ev strategy, just devils advocating a little bit for the validity of the whole thing.
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Also feels like a lot of the negative sentiment is based around things they can/are likely to address - decentralizing it, third party integration, improvements to the site and processing orders etc.
/bull case
I get the s1 argument that maybe that becomes more valuable but as aofrantic said, and this is critical imo, there are going to be sooo many moments and dapper themselves are motivated to create more and more to make money. Theyâll make more of the rare ones too. I mean LeBron and other stars will probably end up having 10 different rares per season. Itâll probably go the way of physical trading cards, maybe there is another superpeak but it seems unlikely given the extreme moment minting. Maybe overall market cap goes up but its spread across millions more moments than were in existence 1/2/3/12 months ago. Some prime stuff may hold value but everything else will be worth less than the materials that made them (magical blockchain dust).
Yeah I guess that I should have been more specific in that going the way of physical trading cards feels like success to me if you hold a bunch of really early ones.
Hear me out: cube-shaped pax
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This will be a massive fail imo. Wax is âdecentralizedâ and afaict their position is if bots/hackers/scammers ruin everything, welp, nothing they can do because if they could then it wouldnât be DeCeNtRaLiZeD.
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bull case is simply they advertise + mobile game isnât trash and people buy moments to play it (no indication of anything other than this will be garbage)
of course if and when another rush happens and you donât sell during it, lol @ you
Kay so now they are launching âtrade ticketsâ where you trade in moments for a single trade ticket of unknown value that you can buy other recycled moments with. Back to viewing this as a scam.
topshots or topps?
im scared to log on to discord and have to learn everything ivâe missed the past week and a half
Top Shot
They also announced that they eventually want to drop base packs everyday so yeah, lol me defending this racket
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Itâs really good for moment value though.