So has this already run its course, all my cards have catered in the last 48 hours. Is it time to get rid
It depends, what do you currently own?
How are you estimating that price?
I had a Jakob Poetl sell overnight for $35. Any idea why that moment shot up in price? It had been at like $9 for a while I think.
Some stores have started taking preorders and the buzz online is that the price is going to be $2,600. It wouldnât surprise me if itâs off by a little in either direction, but that is the rumor.
This means the 2020 draft picks hobby boxes are gonna moon.
Iâm scooping one on Wed if my stimmy hits.
Iâll be out at Targets tomorrow seeing what that looks like.
Just for comparison 2019-20 Prizm hobby boxes go for over $3k on secondary markets and the draft pick boxes are still 5-600.
The secondary market flipping and box breaks are 100% responsible for the crazy prices in boxes direct from card companies. They obviously saw what was happening and decided that if boxes are gonna go that high on the secondary market, then they should probably just make that money on the front end.
Yeah Iâve digested all the prices obsessing the past week.
This means the Mega boxes in retail stores are gonna be gold.
Iâm not a saint but I would at least open packs and do the work of securing the cards and whatnot.
Is there a panini set that has all the players in the league?
How much were you willing to go on a hobby box?
Smart play IMO is snatching up a prizms DP box while theyâre still around 4 bills.
The best value in sports cards right now is in buying PSA 9 or 10 rookies of elite players. The prices of boxes are massively -EV as they essentially reflect what the price should be if youâre going to pull a monster PSA 10 card out of every box. And even if you hit the monster card, youâre paying minimum $100+ s&h to get it graded.
I would guess the current EV on opening boxes is probably worse than lottery tickets. Youâre basically paying a huge premium for the nostalgia/experience of opening packs. Which sucks, because I really wanted to buy some too. Itâs also disappointing for getting a new generation into collecting because there just isnât a value product out there anymore. And how many kids are able to walk into a store and pay that kind of money for a pack or box?
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I naively assumed theyâd be around $800, which would still likely be -EV but at least justifiable. Then I saw Donruss get released at $1k per box and I figured the Prizm prices werenât gonna be good. Even at that point I didnât expect $2,600.
The card companies have some
blame too. You canât even get the prize
card unless you buy the FOTL box.
Ldo but the Baseball card market already went thru this once. The greed crashed everything. The biggest difference now is the internet.
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I just assumed if you ripped everything and were willing to sell individual cards you would on average come out ahead or break even with the lowest flipper price.
The problem is this isnât NBA Topshot. Nobody buys the Ish Smithâs in real life.
All that said, you should definitely buy a box and report back. That way we can all live vicariously through you. And hopefully you hit a nice LaMelo rookie.
Is the best grift on this pre-selling packs at a huge markup then opening for people on live stream like that Pokemon dude?
Also, arenât all of these dumb card scalper markets facing bigly kinked demand curves? A lot of the demand for this product is âfakeâ and concentrated to power buyers who are only in it to scalp. If prices rise to a point that eliminates them, Iâm not sure the market clears the same way (or at all). Are people really going to pay these prices for pennies-on-the-dollar return? The smart money will sit this out, the bagholders might buy this time, but even they will probably figure it out after a round or two of getting crushed?
theyâre moving on from aldridge, he gets more opportunity to play
so a bunch of people bought his card
aldridge also skyrocketed for a day because people are morons
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Nothing very exciting
3xx Mulder dunk thats part of the RS challenge
And a couple of 4 digit SS.Jaylen Brown steal and a Sabontis layup.
Havenât really got involved in the madness, was just treating it like buying a lottery ticket