TopShot and other NFTs Part II: Electric Boondoggle

meanwhile in capitalism

https://twitter.com/RollingStone/status/1367140440286363651

Does anybody know of any good forums to talk politics? This PACK delay left me with some pent-up mental energy I need to work off.

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dfs business must be booming for awesemo to drop whatever amount that cost

lol wtf why does awesemo own so many deanthony melton common cards

Very nice!! Can you do my big holdings? Kd7500 lbj7500 lbj15000. I’m sorta interested to know if there are any accounts holding a large quantity of these, as compared to someone like Gianni’s or Embiid, to see who people are loading up on.

Luke 375
Zion 388
Curry 260
Giannis 175
AD 165

looks like stuff is continuing to slide.

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Is that the average of all different types and series of a player or…?

Think that’s just the 15k cc base 2

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It’s the current low ask for the /15,000 LE set. For context a few days ago all of the above moments were trading at around 25%+ higher than those numbers. I usually spot check a few of those as a way to check and see what the general market is doing

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Gotcha. For a second I thought the 250k cards were like 99.99% from ath.

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Zion and Curry have 2 new moments, one required for a challenge and around 21k of them coming out this weekend. They should fall quite a bit.

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Lol not really because I’ve been looking at

and saw some 4figure sales. What I just realized is how much NBATS dwarfs the others in trading volume and price.

whew for a moment I thought gb was actually going to sleep before midnight

and thought o shit that’s it the bubble has officially burst

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What’s the endgame for holding over 100 LBJs? It still feels different than holding 100 bitcoins or Berkshire Hathaway shares and what not though I suppose it fundamentally shouldn’t.

I suppose we’d have to know when and how they acquired them. I’m just going by gut feels but it really seems like a weird plan to own that many of a specific player and set no matter how valuable they might be in the future, because different plans would be higher EV in that same bullish future.

If he just opened a bunch of PAX and got a bunch of brons then damn.

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https://opensea.io/assets/cryptodunks?search[resultModel]=ASSETS&search[sortAscending]=false&search[sortBy]=LAST_SALE_PRICE

the names…

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Holy shit. I’ve actually never seen him be this blatant and I think it’s because he doesn’t respect the rookie’s defense.

Let me break this down: At first glance it looks like he’s looking down when he’s dribbling, which seems really weird because a good HS ball handler doesn’t need to look down when they dribble, but he’s not looking at the ball, he’s looking at the defender’s feet. He keeps crossing back and forth making the defender’s feet get more and more out of position until McDaniels goes full baby giraffe and then he steps back and shoots. Curry isn’t the only player nor the first to do this but he’s definitely the goat at it. What makes this particular play weird is that he’s so blatantly looking at the defender’s feet, basically declaring that he’s gonna shoot a 3, and he’s gonna do it when they defender’s feet are at their worst possible position. McDaniel’s obv plan should be to not bite on every cross and ball fake and keep his feet in the game, but he’s a rookie and I’m guessing Curry knew this.

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Guy is buying every Jaxson Hayes available. Bought all day from $29 all the way up to $39. Also lol at the handle - this a UP member or some 2p2 pleb?

thinking about this more, im considering doing the labron challenge. the combination of a ton of packs going out and people just looking to instantly sell driving the price down on the seeing stars moments makes me think it might actually be a +EV play if i’m able to time the bottom well enough. Plus the freeroll chance for a single or double-digit serial Labron.

Here’s my quick and dirty math, im not fucking around with market caps or total circulating there’s no point for such a rough estimation. Also LOL at looking at legendary prices and stuff like that, that stuff has basically no impact on the price of these moments. I just scaled to the 15000 LE count and for PG and Gobert i just scaled down by a decent amount further than that because their low mint stuff has an obvious premium associated with it currently due to them not having many moments.

Now with people buying these up to complete the challenge, the estimated total could be as high as double, but for sake of comparison ill use 50% increase since that seems to be the breakpoint that flips this from +EV to -EV per my math/logic below. But we are going to have competing interests of people mass-dumping moments combined with people mass-buying to try and complete challenge, I’m thinking those will cancel each other out initially until the dump supply dries out.

havent checked KD one yet but i suspect it will be even less since team KD is weak compared to LBJ team. Might do that one as well TBD on the pricing of both combined I guess. Though I doubt the KD moment will be worth more than say $500-1000. If I do the challenge I plan to sell everything except LBJ/KD reward immediately after the challenge ends, probably list everything at like 70% min ask and hope that a rayvin fish buys them.

Even if say 7500 people do the challenge, then the price of the Labron card /7500 could be valued around $2k or so (price of his dunk card). Just knowing that and knowing that other people know that probably adds another factor to the numbers i listed though, so maybe boost them up as high as 50%. If i see the moments being sold at higher than the 50% boost range, i dont think the challenge is worth it. I’m expecting to maybe be able to sell my moments at a 25-50% loss after the challenge ends, and at a 50% loss on $3550 and estimated 2k value for labron then that’s getting close to break-even range.

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