Fuck. Look out below.
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Her investors that are down 80% are well positioned to capture gains of up to 10% from here!
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God how did I not invest in the fade Cathie Wood ETF
I am way too in on efficient markets, but timing it is impossible the worthless shit can go up for so long before reality sets in
I stuck a nice chunk of change in when it was in the low 40s. Ark is such a scam.
Puts and SARK have saved me this year. And by saved I mean I’m just a little less hosed.
The evergreen problem with bailing on “obviously” over exuberant markets is that no one knows when to get back in. I’d rather just invest and forget about it.
WHADDAYA WANT US TO DO JUST TAX THE RICH PEOPLE AND GIVE IT TO POOR PEOPLE?!?!?!?
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They’re going to lose 50 house seats and the senate and double down on Republican lite bullshit
It’s the progressives’ fault, duh.
A whole bunch of people are going to feel like they have to choose between their own economic security and gross things happening to marginalized groups. And I don’t think we’re going to like which of the meme buttons they end up pushing.
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Trump is going to say “What do you have to lose?” and they’re going to think “Good point.”
That’s a feature, not a bug.
Now check out the in the money prices on 0.5 percent converts people did for tech stocks last year.
Still mostly staying off social media, but man, hope everyone is proceeding cautiously.
The interesting questions to me at this point are
—does the fed stop fucking around and rip the bandaid off with some real stunners (like 100 tomorrow) that send us to a (maybe) short deep recession or whether we linger for an extended period in stagflation territory (inflation likely to be less responsive to rates initially IMO and other layers of food and healthcare inflation coming down the pipe shortly, fed needs to be mega aggressive if it wants to make headway).
—-when we hit the pandemic lows on the
indices later this year, do we find a bottom or do we finally see real capitulation from the buy the dip spammers getting wrekt and test like S&P 2000 or financial crisis levels.
Could go either way but, man, the clownshow Congress coming (McConnell is a RINO House leading to massive fiscal tightening and a debt ceiling crisis on top of a major tightening cycle with a financial market built on ZIRP) makes me worried it is the latter.
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Yeah the thing most otherwise smart people seem to be missing is the GOP can no longer be relied upon to talk a big game but eventually back down. The inmates are running the asylum. And not just in the House - Mitch will be a top 10 GOP Senator come January and may not even hold his leadership position.
As with every cycle, people seem way too slow to see how bad this is. It’s going to take another 300 bps of rate increases minimum, probably way more, to get shit under control. A world with 7% mortgages and stocks down 50% from peaks because of the discount rate alone.
GOP in the senate doesn’t have enough crazy people yet to flip mitch think he holds for now. House will probably be more of a shitshow in all directions especially over time which will not be good, though a few have gotten got on the GOP side lately.
too many businesses CEO’s were stupid and took on way too much debt, that there’s a limit to how far they can push without toppling a bunch of them, we haven’t had the layoffs so that’s why most people don’t know. (and a few that do and just figure might as well blow it now while you’ve got it) [and if this somehow tapered off, they might never know] Should be a strong crop for instance I hear. who knows maybe that stupid war stops and oil comes back down. (I don’t believe that either but only putin knows that one)
all of these risk assets are gonna be hard to pull the trigger to invest as long as the dollar keeps climbing like this also
FYP
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Private equity and commercial real estate are about to get fucking crushed along with their lenders. PE deals have been massively over leveraged for 10+ years on the assumption of low rates. Whoops. Not only are the rates on the existing debt going to double or more there is no longer a pool of buyers to bail them out because nothing pencils anymore.
Yep, House just full of the extra special, but Senate gonna be a complete clownshow too. Unless the adults raise the debt ceiling during the lame duck that process is going to get ugly. Raising it with massive fiscal cuts heading into recession isn’t gonna be great and state budgets are going to be completely fucked without help from DC.
Not to mention the commercial real estate issues you have mentioned. They are going to become very real.
PE has issues, but the lender documents are so favorable it isn’t going to be as bad as you think. Leveraged finance market in a lot of potential trouble since it is built on levered vehicles and recovery rates are going to be absolutely horrific in the next down cycle. But, yeah, gonna find out that a lot of the people who got rich buying at 8 times and selling for 12 then buying at 12 and selling for 16 ain’t actually Warren Buffet.
Lady working the desk at this dirt pile of a hotel I’m forced into due to nature was ranting about Sleepy Joe’s high gas prices as she checked me in. Pumps had same vibe as what you’re saying when I went to fill up.
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A pretty funny meme in Mopar groups is “ if gas prices bother you then this isn’t the car for you “ but that was back when it was like two dollars, now all these same types are throwing a shit fit
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