??? US pays the interest and principal on its debt without fail.
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for fully autonomous yea
Well… unless a Trumpy administration/Congress decides to fuck around and find out. We seem to get closer and closer to that outcome every cycle.
I had been making annual curtailment payments on my 2.5% mortgage to pay it off by a targeted date, but it looks like I’ll be setting up a sinking fund for the foreseeable future.
This whole “retail investors remain bullish during this selloff” shtick doesn’t seem to be some collective belief that hedge funds are wrong and the youngsters know what their doing. It’s representing the fact imo, that folks are simply buying back in to the market and will continue to do so if the market were to rip green again and they see it as another opportunity to buy Bitcoin at the new great low price of 20/w K. Basically they can’t help themselves.
I can’t imagine how we could be near any bottom until the collective attention that the market is getting from retail traders starts to dissipate.
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The ones I know IRL and well enough to discuss it are actually decent.
I think the truth is that most humans are bad at personal finance. When one has no money, then you can’t really judge the lack of ability. On the other hand, when you have a lot of money (like many docs), then it becomes incredibly obvious.
If you gave the average American a 5 million dollar lottery win, they’re probably doing to do worse with it than a doc who already has a net worth of 5 million. This type of comparison is flawed for obvious reasons, but you get the idea.
I could see plenty of people rolling the dice on death due to privacy concerns. On the other hand it seems like if you just carry your cell phone everywhere, this info exists in some form somewhere (I’m fuzzy on the details, and kind of don’t want to know).
It’s also true that doctors (and other professionals) suffer from intelligence bias in that they think because they are experts in one area they’re experts in everything. There are plenty of unintelligent narcissists who suffer from the same grandiose delusions, but they’re not as common.
Also doctors have money, so their investing mistakes are obvious. The person with a $30,000 retirement account paying 2% in annual fees is also making a mistake, but it’s not interesting. Doctors losing $100,000 on a shady private venture investment makes the news.
Yes, geolocation data, gps data, cell tower activity data, and cell tower handshake data are all something that cell phone companies have, and that the government can get. However a lot of that data gets overwritten relatively quickly, depending on the cell phone company.
the govt got caught using a device called a stingray, which basically mimics a cell phone tower to get device info to track certain people down.
that got out and it isnt done anymore, but there’s other crap they can do. im not up to speed on tech stuff but if you’re using a cell attached to any network you are very visible to any authority that really wanted to see you. that’s my understanding now anyway
Sold EBS at $27.51, taking the L on that one and holding the other two monkeypox stocks. I think SIGA is a good value stock anyway and monkeypox doesn’t seem to be going away. I think BVNRY still has upside because I think there is a reasonable likelihood that the US is going to end up stockpiling 200M+ doses of it and turning them over at expiration on a rolling 5 year basis, and I’d expect our allies in Western Europe to do the same proportionally. That’d add up to about 64M doses a year. It appears to generate a profit of $7-9 per dose, and I’d expect that to increase. At $7 we’re talking $448M per year, or $2.13 per share. That’s more than enough to overcome their current losses, which are in the $0.44 per share range (don’t have it in front of me anymore).
That’s enough to get a reasonable valuation in the $25-30 range, so the question is what probability to assign to that? First, it’s better than the existing smallpox vaccine as a smallpox vaccine. So why not roll over the stockpile to the better one? The cost is a rounding error in the budget. Second, it’s better against monkeypox which may now be a thing requiring some ring vaccination.
It’s currently trading at $9.36, so even if it goes to zero otherwise (which it won’t), the question becomes is there at least a 37% chance that it gets stockpiled like that? I think that it’s more likely and there’s currently an upward catalyst for price movement anyway.
Non monkeypox, I bought GOOGL at $2,137.81. It’s a value stock below $2,150. Shockedd to see the Class A trading slightly below Class C, and to see it appears to have done so over the last year. What gives, @spidercrab? Voting rights have to be better than no voting rights, correct?
Yeah, in theory Class A should always trade at or above Class C. Looking at the daily stock history since 2014, that’s been true (based on closing prices) about 73% of the time. I only have data through 3/31/2022, but for whatever reason, it’s only been true about 40% during the first quarter of 2022.
What’s crazy is that up through 2017 or so, that difference was often quite large - there were days where it was about a 5% difference. And then there was a period last summer where the reverse was true. Here’s the history of that premium:
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I double checked to make sure both were doing the 20 for 1 split, and they are. That was the only thing I could think of that would make me currently want C over A. Unfortunately neither does fractional shares through Schwab, my standard allocation is more than $2,100 and less than $4,200. Guess I’ll see where it’s at when it splits.
I remain more invested than I want to be, but given that a couple of my holdings are either intentional arb plays (ATVI) or investments that turned into that (IBA), it’s kind of like they’re in cash in a lockbox that releases in the future, so I’m choosing to think of it that way for peace of mind - that keeps me around my previous target ratio of stocks/cash in my IRAs.
Starting to think my impulse buy of a bunch of travel stocks yesterday may not have been so smart.
Well, airfare is still outrageous. But so is fuel labor etc. This is a weird time. I suspect lots and lots of people are going to take a long time to realize how bad this is and keep spending all summer.
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Elon Musk couldn’t make a self-cleaning oven, let alone a self-driving car.
Serious question: who was buying 30 year treasuries at these rates?
https://twitter.com/chrisbloomstran/status/1536743836780843008?s=21&t=MafTK1Cl9nWFJa9oAbLYcg
Our pension plan in the US holds some 30 year Treasuries. If the cash flows on the Treasuries match the benefit payments that have to be paid to retirees, no one really cares if the market value of the pension fund assets are down 39%. Implicitly the pension plan liabilities are down 39% as well.
It’s more complicated than that, but that’s the general idea. Hedging long term obligations with long term Treasuries is very safe, even if interest rates rise.
