The consensus during summer 2020 in the predecessor to this very thread was that the market is a mandatory short or at least wait on the sidelines until economic recovery. This was reached by some of the same posters trying to time the market now.
UP needs some kind of consensus index. A weekly poll of stock picks, blah blah, direction of the market…
Poll only needs two options:
and
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Third option:
Both. Bastard.
Since Nov 24, I have never been as bearish on the future of the market - 1-5 years out than I am now. But shorting is always dumb unless you got the goodies and are willing to break the law.
Like, efficiently valuing internet art, alt coins, and star-up automotive companies could send us into a recession.
For me at least the goal in picking stocks very much isn’t to beat the S&P 500. The goal is to build a defensive portfolio that isn’t highly correlated with my business because it’s either that or keep most of my money in cash which was stupid before inflation mooned.
Normal people whose finances don’t routinely go up and down 50%+ in any given year should just buy an index fund on a regular schedule.
Would that mean that keeping cash now would be a good idea?
No the opposite. It was dumb in a low inflation environment and it’s even dumber in a high inflation environment. I keep enough in I bonds and TIPS to cover a year of runway if need be, but the rest of it needs to be in the market. I’m fine underperforming in years like 2021 where my business goes insanely well as long as I get to keep my powder dry for when there are real world opportunities when it isn’t going well.
There are definitely real world logistics opportunities in down years that I could generate returns way above the S&P on and I want to be able to go get them.
Here or workout thread? Only selected this article since I figured this had the best photo that the forum would automagically fetch for me.
Peloton is firing over 2,800 employees — 20% of its corporate workforce — due to an ongoing downturn in the company’s business.
As part of the severance plan for the over 2,800 laid off employees, Pelton is offering a curious benefit: A membership to Peloton.
“The Peloton monthly membership will be complimentary for impacted team members for an additional 12 months,” Peloton said in its press release about the layoffs. That’s in addition to a “meaningful cash severance allotment” that’s determined “based on job level and tenure” with the fitness company, alongside several other benefits.
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Oh wow this is so stupidly tone deaf. I’m not sure there’s another product where I am so in love with the product but so disparaging of the company. (Probably Amazon I guess.)
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meh far from the evils of amazon. They get cash too. Don’t see the harm in it really.
Amazon otoh, fuck those guys. See so many people begging for work notes from their warehouse. I always write them generously. Them and Tesla were major sources of covid too.
Not evil, just completely incompetent. The idea that they would have a 5-digit employee headcount is absolutely bonkers to me.
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Thinking the same - ~14k employees - what?
Imagine the Powerpoints those employees had to dream up to justify their existence. First exercise bikes, next the Amazon of Exercise!
Don’t worry, AMZ is taking care of the important people. My guess is this is more of a strategy to not be so heavy in stock compensation, based on my understanding of their typical comp package in Seattle area.
Close!
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I don’t get it either but a few quick Google searches shows that they opened quite a few retail locations (“showrooms”) in recent years. I’m also seeing references to things like an “apparel division” that I didn’t even know existed. It seems like they got high on their own supply and assumed their brand would carry the day, like every person with a bike would also want to replace all their fitness wear with Official Peloton Gear.
I’m not sure why there’s such a difference in my head between wearing something with a giant Peloton logo to the gym and something with a giant Under Armour Logo… But there is.